Lovely Rita

[Mrs. Tuberski]

shawnmmcc since you seem clued as to these things how hard of a hit are we suppose to expect? I havent been alive since the last hurricane this strong was in 1900 i dont know what to expect

[Mr. Harley]

I'm just a briefer, not a forecaster. In fact a portion of my training was to make sure I do not forecast, as that would make the FAA liable - but I can say the weather is improving/getting worse faster than forecast, slower than forecast, or different than forecast. I know the distinction sounds silly, but Imran could probably do a better job than I can of explaining why that makes our lawyers happy.

The guys at the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) are pretty damn good at this. They predicted Katrina right on the money. As I said, they have gotten excellent at predicting impact, but they still hedge their bets because a Hurricane is the 800 pound gorilla of the weather world. Where does it sit? Wherever it decides to.

Once it come inland it gets harder to predict. Given where you live I would definitely get plywood for my windows, make sure I can put my autos, pets, children, and husband (last optional) indoors, and if I live where there is flooding start moving things out of the basement or first floor (and remember with the amount of rain you could get you may end up very surprised at the kind of flooding you can get - my rule of thumb is that if it's below ground level and you can move it, get it out.

Look at it as an opportunity to clean all the corners, and get rid of the stuff that's accumulated. Plus good exercise for all and sundry. As an aside, especially for Tubes - consider getting one of the weight lifting belts that are especially broad across the back, and velcro in place (not the leather ones). When lifting something heavy, you help him tighten it, as I've told my friends - like you are squeezing the goo out of a catepillar. It works, and helps prevent those back injuries that start in the 30's and get worse in the 40's and 50's. No matter how good a shape you are in, the spinal discs are starting to age and are more subject to damage. You might consider one for yourself - they can be sorta cute, my wife has one. Watch knees and ankles do when lifting heavy crap up the stairs, and wear braces as appropriate for previous injuries. If it has been injured, wear the brace. By the time it hurts enough that you decide to put it on, it is too late.

You also might want to purchase those cheap tarps they have at some stores and put them on your stuff upstairs, that way if you lose some shingles and get water from roof leaks you'll safe the stuff. Make sure you have PLENTY of drinkable water, and food that does not need heating. Also make sure you have as much ice as you can make with your freezer. In fact you may want to put in milk jugs mostly full of water and freeze them, just in case the power fails. If it doesn't, move them down into the fridge until they thaw, so you don't totally waste the power spent. If you have one, place a thermometer in the fridge so you can see what temperature it has thawed to, so you know the point to start cooking/throwing things out. Remember to read it immediately on opening the door (set in further back in so you can see what the real temperature is), though one with the little wire probe is even better, you don't need to open the door which is important. You can often find them for around $10.

In case of power failure, make sure you have enough gas/charcoal to cook everything in your fridge/freezer. Invite your neighbors, I had a coworker do this during bad ice storm in Mississippi several years ago. It will make you popular, and in her case she could still make a claim. And of course make sure you have enough barbecue sauce, you are after all in Texas.

Fill the bath tub full of water. It lets you flush your toilet extra. Same with filling buckets, etc. full of water. Even though it may not be drinkable, there is much to be said for flushing toilets. Other than that, link to some sites with the full checks lists, not having enough oxygen if you need it, or insulin, killed some people around New Orleans and the Mississippi delta. Good luck.

[KrazyHorse]

For water, even assuming you aren't going to be flushing the toilet or taking a shower the rule of thumb is 1 gallon of water per person per day. This will let you drink, brush your teeth, clean your hands and clean your face.

Nobody has ever regretted storing too much water ahead of time.

[KrazyHorse]

Bathtub is a good idea, but its drinkability is questionable (still obviously better than floodwater, but....)

Drinking/washing water you want in gallon or 5 gallon jugs, sealed againstleakage or debris flying in from the outside.

[Robert]

175mph (282km/h) :eek!:
that's a STRONG cat 5 hurricane!
What's the strongest hurricane (windspeeds) ever measured so far?

[Mr. Harley]

Oh, and I forgot - if you have to park your car outside, try to park where it won't flood, and somewhere sheltered opposite the side where the worst wind will come from. Definitely do not park it underneath something that can fall, like a tree. Carports can be a mixed blessing, many are not that structurally sound and can end up a liability.

My coworker and I have been watching this, and it did a weird little jog (on the satellite imagery). Ivan did that last year, and Katrina did one too. It's not scientific, but we are convinced it is going to be a bullet, instead of the one that was dodged, so to speak.

Oh, and Mrs. Tuberski - a battery back up and dial-up modem so you can post on Apolyton before your power comes back.

[Mr. Harley]

Last update from the satellite - the outer fringes of Rita (where the clouds are still showing circular motion) extends all the way from the Yucatan to the US Gulf Coast.

The core area - at least by satellite, extends over half that distance. She is going to be one mean b*tch.

Oh - the forecasters saw that little shift I mentioned earlier, and think she will impact a little further up the Gulf Coast. They keep shifting the impact point closer and closer to Louisiana.

edited to add the newest landfall data

[Solly]

Meteorologists forum: (very good)

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=40248&whichpage=10

[SpencerH]

As shawnmmcc has said, the projected center-of-path has moved east a little which means two things.

SA will be on the west side of the hurricane (which is way better than the east side) but I think you're gonna see higher winds than you've ever seen before unless you've lived through a tornado. Imagine a really good Texas thunderstorm going on for hours and hours and hours.

NO will get a bucketful of rain.

[Richelieu]

This one shows the projected path of the eye with intensity level. It looks to me like its going a little bit to the east of the projected path.

link to NOAA

edit To see the projected path, click the "Trop Fcst Pts" checkmark at the top righthand corner.

[SpencerH]

Originally posted by shawnmmcc
Last update from the satellite - the outer fringes of Rita (where the clouds are still showing circular motion) extends all the way from the Yucatan to the US Gulf Coast.

The core area - at least by satellite, extends over half that distance. She is going to be one mean b*tch.

Oh - the forecasters saw that little shift I mentioned earlier, and think she will impact a little further up the Gulf Coast. They keep shifting the impact point closer and closer to Louisiana.

edited to add the newest landfall data

Yeah. I noticed the size other day when they were saying it was a 3 (but that was because the storm hunter planes weren't flying or something), to me it already looked like it was as big or bigger than Katrina.

[The Emperor Fabulous]

Originally posted by CyberShy
175mph (282km/h) :eek!:
that's a STRONG cat 5 hurricane!

With gusts up to 215mph

[Mr. Harley]

I'm not a hurricane specialist or forecaster, but the NE side of Rita may be weakening as per the forecast. Now weakening may mean simply hitting as a Category 5 instead of the strongest Atlantic Hurricane ever. Except for the little problem that follows two paragraphs down, but read the next one first.

The bad news is, if you overlay the track data on this IR image - similiar to Richelieu's link but it shows intensity better Rita IR loop and check the last box in the legend above the loop - Trop Fcst Pts - you will see that it is veering further east. This is not good - well it is for oil prices, areas hit by Katrina are not producing oil anyway, but New Orleans does NOT need more rain dumped on it.

Plus one other unpleasant picture. I pulled the last ocean surface temperature map before Rita obscured too much of the picture. It seems that if Rita tracks more easterly, the waters off of Louisiana are f*cking hot, compared to Texas. Hot water is NOT a good thing with a monster hurricane. Remember the baselilne for Hurricane's is 80 degrees (thats the minimum for the ocean to give up energy to the hurricane), so figure that as you zero axis for the amount of energy that is available (gross oversimplification but it mostly works). Then look at the Texas Coast, where Rita was supposed to hit, and then look at the temps where it's heading.

[Richelieu]

It has definitely moved slightly to the east.

[Mr. Harley]

But the track overlay has been adjusted, so that they now show it coming onland in Texas just west of the Louisiana border. Now look at those water temps. Yech.