Lovely Rita

[Mrs. Tuberski]

Originally posted by SpencerH


katrina, winds here were still 50-60 (and gusts higher than that) as it passed 100 miles from Birmingham.

Wholly ****tte Not good.
The folks in sa were told to go out and get supplies and stuff we would need to wait the storm out. Guess i should start finding all my candles and flashligts hell in our apts the power goes out in a regular storm cant magaine what the after math of a hurricane will do

[Grandpa Troll]

This is why I had stated earlier...its not too early to evacuate..granted this storm possibly could lessen somewhat but still.. ya got them Tornados and all the rain associated with this storm

I feel for ya and hope any in its path make it safely


Gramps

[Apocalypse]

People are evacuating now and have been for a while. The main two highways out, I-10 and I-45 are incredibly slow right now though.

CNN is reporting it's the 3rd most powerful hurricane ever.

And it's apparently getting worse.

[GePap]

Last year florida, this year the gulf coast....

[Agathon]

God is showing his anger at the red states!!!!

[chequita guevara]

Katrina created a wedge of destruction from Gulf Coast to Tennesee, covering most of the state of Mississippi.

GePap, last year was unusual with the number of storms that hit Florida. Even in decades of lots of storms, that normally doesn't happen. The two areas of the U.S. that are most frequently hit by hurricanes are North Carolina and Texas.

[Mr. Harley]

The only reason I said at least a Category 3, instead of a Category 4 or 5, is because of the routine loss of a level of severity while making landfall. A storm surge the size of Katrina's would top the seawall there by several feet.

[SpencerH]

Originally posted by GePap
Last year florida, this year the gulf coast....

We had Ivan last year that destroyed the Florida/Alabama gulf coast.

[Kontiki]

I saw on CNN a little while ago that current projections have it still as a full-blown hurricane by the time it reaches Austin.

[OzzyKP]

Not another one...

[Mrs. Tuberski]

wow the weather folks dont think its gonna weaken to nothing beyond a 4 again. Guess wall the folks that are closer then us is get the hell out and the rest of us sit tight

[Berzerker]

many scientists agree that the present hurricane surge is likely part of a 60- to 70-year cycle that changes the strength of ocean currents distributing heat around the globe."

Which is probably part of some other longer cycle, we just dont know much about long term atmospheric processes. But we have figured out the ice is likely to return.

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by OzzyKP
Not another one...

It's still September. We may see another storm before the end of the month, and then we still have two more months to go. August, September, and October are the worst months for cyclones in the North Atlantic. I think we'll see a Hurricane Alpha before the end of the year.

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by Kontiki
I saw on CNN a little while ago that current projections have it still as a full-blown hurricane by the time it reaches Austin.

That's not unpreceidented, though it will upset my friends who just sold their house here and are moving to Austin.

[Mr. Harley]

Since I do this for a living (aviation weather) here goes (bold three periods were added by me, the other three periods are just how they write them, nothing is edited in those sections):

Hurrican Rita Intermediate Advsisory Number 17
2100Z WED SEP 21 2005

... Because Rita will be crossing an area of high heat content during the next 12 to 24 hours...it is expected that the hurricane will maintain its strength. Therafter...the ocean heat content is not as high and the intensity changes will be controlled mainly by eyewall replacement cycles and decreasing heat content. Some weakening is anticipated but Rita is forecast to make landfall as a mjor hurricane...at least category three. ...

... Extended Outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 NM on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intenisty near 20 kt each day. ...

I had to manually retype this, I cannot get a link on the web. Note the errors, however, the NOAA has vastly improved its hurricane tracking forecasts over the last decade. Intensity forecasts have not improved to the same degree. To translate - this means that they are much more likely to accurately place landfall than they are intensity at landfall.