New Orleans and Global Warming

[Drake Tungsten]

Christ, you guys are dense. The number and intensity of hurricanes striking the US have been on the decline since the 1950's, the same period when global warming was supposedly jacking up world temperatures. It's pretty obvious from the factual data that global warming has had little to no effect on hurricane formation and strength (unless you want to argue that global warming has actually inhibited hurricane formation, but that doesn't really fit any of your politics). We may finally be experiencing an upsurge in hurricane activity (and no Emperor Fabulous, your simplistic predictions for the rest of the decade don't count as facts), but there is no reason whatsoever to think global warming is behind said upsurge rather than a natural cause.

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by techumseh
He clearly deserves respect for his work and credentials. But are you saying that you buy his explanation for global warming? That its a big boogeyman invented by scientists to secure funding? If so, it's a huge shift in your position, based on one expert's opinion.

No, that's not my opinion, but if the oceanographic data doesn't support global warming influencing hurricane formation, I have to take that seriously, especially given the decrease in tropical cyclonic activity elsewhere.

The is considerable evidence for climate change, but it seems the poles are heating more than the tropics. In a dynamic system, I suppose that's a possible outcome.

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten
Christ, you guys are dense. The number and intensity of hurricanes striking the US have been on the decline since the 1950's, the same period when global warming was supposedly jacking up world temperatures.

Uh, no. The last eight years have had a record number of storms in the Atlantic basin.

[Drake Tungsten]

No, that's not my opinion, but if the oceanographic data doesn't support global warming influencing hurricane formation, I have to take that seriously, especially given the decrease in tropical cyclonic activity elsewhere.

I hate to support che (), but he's right on the money. Many of you have forgotten what real science is.

Uh, no. The last eight years have had a record number of storms in the Atlantic basin.

I don't disagree.

We may finally be experiencing an upsurge in hurricane activity (and no Emperor Fabulous, your simplistic predictions for the rest of the decade don't count as facts), but there is no reason whatsoever to think global warming is behind said upsurge rather than a natural cause.

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten
I hate to support che (), but he's right on the money. Many of you have forgotten what real science is.

QFT

[chequita guevara]

DT, a decade is a completely arbitrary unit of time, which merely corresponds to humans love of round numbers. Nature doesn't respect a deacde, especially not according to the Christian calender.

The only practical unit of measure is singular hurricane season. Broken down into months might give us even more useful data, since storms in June and Novermber (and even December) are rare in the Atlantic. This would give us more accurate info on whether global warming is having an effect on the frequency of storms.

[Drake Tungsten]

Give the guy a break. He at least took the time to put the official data in graph form for all of us to see. If the graph doesn't meet your approval, fine, but it's better than nothing. You can at least see the general trend, which is hurricanes peaking in the '50s, declining until the '90s and then going on an uptick at the current time that may or may not turn into a prolonged upsurge in hurricane activity.

[chequita guevara]

He didn't really do all that much work.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml

[Drake Tungsten]

Not saying he did, but it's more than most other people have done.

Why don't you make a new graph, with yearly and monthly breakdowns? I'd like to see it...

[chequita guevara]

If I can find the data. Right now I'd have to limit it to major storms.

[Drake Tungsten]

That would be better than nothing.

[chequita guevara]

Wow, they have records of hurricanes going back to 1492.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdeadly.shtml

[Drake Tungsten]

Holy ****. Probably not very accurate, but still...

[Drake Tungsten]

the number of fatalities during The Great Hurricane of 1780 exceeds the cumulative loss in any year (except 1780) and, in fact, in all other decades.

The Great Hurricane developed during mid-October. It was one of three tropical cyclones to kill more than 1,000 people that month.

Apparently, the 1780 hurricanes occurred during a 10- to 20-year period notable for numerous past deadly storms in the Atlantic

Wow, never knew about this storm.

[chequita guevara]

Hmmm, this will be difficult, since many storms carried over into other months.