The Disengagement Thread

[lord of the mark]

IF Bibi looks like he can take the Likud from Sharon, that increases Labour's incentive to call for new elections no? Since Bibi is probably weaker in a general election than Sharon, no?

OTOH, Bibis good numbers are in the midst of the current likud angst about disengagement, right? IF the disengagement goes smoothly, and Abbas/Dahlan end up in clear control of Gaza, not Hamas, would Bibi's numbers fade?

[Eli]

Originally posted by Az
GODDAMN YOU LABOR. They have GOT to run a good campaign and take the government back. They have got to.

Part of me wants to see Labor winning... Just out of pity for Peres. After all this hard work, he deserves to be finally elected as PM.

[Az]

OTOH, Bibis good numbers are in the midst of the current likud angst about disengagement, right? IF the disengagement goes smoothly, and Abbas/Dahlan end up in clear control of Gaza, not Hamas, would Bibi's numbers fade?

But you see, that ain't how it works!
Likud's member opposition isn't just on fears of the results, but also ideological opposition to a withdrawal - some of them wrt any withdrawal and forceful removal of settlers, others wrt withdrawal without a complete peace accord.

So, even if the disengagement goes smoothly, it won't be a homerun for Sharon. OTOH, if it's a cluster****, Sharon's dead in the water.

Part of me wants to see Labor winning... Just out of pity for Peres. After all this hard work, he deserves to be finally elected as PM.

Hell no, not Peres. I certainly hope he won't be elected as Labour's candidate.I'd prefer fricking Barak, but a Vilnai-Peretz coalition in charge of Labour would be the best IMO.

[lord of the mark]

i guess im wondering how many of the 70% if Likud members who would vote against Sharon now, if any of them would support him if the withdrawl went smoothly. Or are you saying the assumption now is that it WILL go smoothly, so his numbers will only go down?

Tell me again about Vilnai?

Peres, Ramon, Barak, Fuad, Mitzna, and Peretz is as many Labour leaders as my little Galut head can hold.

[Az]

i guess im wondering how many of the 70% if Likud members who would vote against Sharon now, if any of them would support him if the withdrawl went smoothly. Or are you saying the assumption now is that it WILL go smoothly, so his numbers will only go down?

That's not what I am saying. I am saying that many people will be unhappy with the disengagement no matter how it goes, So Sharon has a starting disadvantage.

Tell me again about Vilnai?

Knesset site for a bit of info:

http://www.knesset.gov.il/mk/eng/mk_eng.asp?mk_individual_id_t=204

Generally, not really PM material, but I don't see any of those around today anyhow in the younger guys. A former General, which isn't something I am thrilled about, but doesn't really bother me, too. geopolitically centerist, without strong economical convictions, from what I seem to remember.

Peres - It's Shimon goddamn Peres.

http://www.knesset.gov.il/mk/eng/mk_eng.asp?mk_individual_id_t=104

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shimon_Peres

Too old, IMO, though he has ensured his place as one of the most influential political figures in Israeli history, and even the history of the 20th century.

Ramon...

http://www.knesset.gov.il/mk/eng/mk_eng.asp?mk_individual_id_t=115

somewhat known for political whoring. Certainly no PM material. has "pragmatic" views on just about anything. doesn't really want to be the leader of Labor, from where I see it.

Barak:

currently not an MK. The former PM, tried to stage a big political comeback, which seems to falter real bad right now.

"Fuad":

http://www.knesset.gov.il/mk/eng/mk_eng.asp?mk_individual_id_t=20

just another guy. like Ramon, but slightly less sleazy, and with slightly more chances to grab the leadership of labor.

Mitzna,

http://www.knesset.gov.il/mk/eng/mk_eng.asp?mk_individual_id_t=739

Very dove-ish, ran against Sharon on the previous election, and failed miserably, former mayor of my city. Proposed a plan similar to Sharon's, and was harshly criticized by Likud, only to have his plan adopted after the election ( which makes you think: what kind of a sad ass person would vote Likud next time ). Doesn't run for leader of Labour.

Peretz:

http://www.knesset.gov.il/mk/eng/mk_eng.asp?mk_individual_id_t=105

The Leader of the Israeli General Trade Union, and the only person with the semblance of being an economic leftist. My biggest hope for the upcoming election, and any potential Labour rule.

[Edan]

Originally posted by Eli
A new poll from Haaretz:

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/610570.html

If the picture does not change following the disengagement, Sharon is likely to seriously consider the "big bang" option that Minister Haim Ramon of the Labor Party has been pushing for some time. Ramon has long claimed that Sharon would never be reelected as head of the Likud, and therefore has only two options: abandoning politics altogether, or splitting the Likud and merging his supporters with Labor and Shinui to form a new "centrist" party. Ramon believes that such a party could win a huge number of seats running against a shrunken, Netanyahu-led Likud that Sharon could easily paint as an extreme right-wing party.



Until now, most of the political world has laughed at Ramon's theory. But this poll, and others like it, may turn the "big bang" into a realistic option.

[Az]

Yeah!!!!

Latest reports are that Sharon is considering the breakup positively, and his major problem is the timing factor.

It's a revolution if it happens, ladies and gents. Nothing less.

[Eli]

I'm not sure I like the idea. This means that instead of two parties who are "ruling" material we will have only one large center party. All politics will boil down to selecting the coalition, or even not that if they get more than 61 seats.
That's bad.

[Az]

Yeah, but it's so obvious that this will be a shortlived entity without any chances of surviving in the long run. What it will do is kill Likud as the behemoth of Israeli politics, which is awesome.

Basically, Sharon splitting from Likud doesn't necessarily mean that a centrist superblock is formed. It just means that Likud is dead. The former is a reversible process, superblocks come and go , the later isn't.

Also, Sharon isn't a young boy anymore, so once he's gone, the superblock won't have any clearcut leaders, and will tend to split naturally back according to party lines.

Of course, there's always the chance that Bibi's Likud will fare well, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

[Eli]

Originally posted by Az
Yeah, but it's so obvious that this will be a shortlived entity without any chances of surviving in the long run. What it will do is kill Likud as the behemoth of Israeli politics, which is awesome.

Basically, Sharon splitting from Likud doesn't necessarily mean that a centrist superblock is formed. It just means that Likud is dead. The former is a reversible process, superblocks come and go , the later isn't.

Also, Sharon isn't a young boy anymore, so once he's gone, the superblock won't have any clearcut leaders, and will tend to split naturally back according to party lines.

How long is this long run? It is not inconceivable that the new party will rule for the full 4 years after the next election. That's enough time for a leader to show up. We might see a Mapai like 30 years long rule.

The only issue over which a split of such a party is likely is the Palestinians. In the negotiations over a permanent agreement Sharon as the leader may not want to go as far as his party members from Labor and Shinui, but then Sharon is demolishing settlements today so who knows.

[Az]

I am talking for as long as Sharon is running. that's not that long.

[Edan]

Originally posted by Az

Basically, Sharon splitting from Likud doesn't necessarily mean that a centrist superblock is formed. It just means that Likud is dead. The former is a reversible process, superblocks come and go , the later isn't.

Is it? Labor seemed close to becoming irrelevant after the last election, when it almost came in third. But it seems to be doing better now.

If a moderate superblock starts shrinking,wouldn't many of the members will return to their former parties, including Likud?

[Az]

If a moderate superblock starts shrinking,wouldn't many of the members will return to their former parties, including Likud?

It's different. Superblocks don't shrink, they fall apart. A party that broke off from Likud, and in fact split it in half would have it much more difficult to go back to Likud. If the Labor party breaks off from the block, it will simply continue it's course, as an independent country.

[Edan]

It's different. Superblocks don't shrink, they fall apart. A party that broke off from Likud, and in fact split it in half would have it much more difficult to go back to Likud. If the Labor party breaks off from the block, it will simply continue it's course, as an independent country.

It might be easier for the parts rejoining Labor as opposed to Likud, but I think it would probably happen eventually. (so long as the moderate party doesn't last long enough to be viable itself).

Sharon could beat Netanyahu in race for prime minister: Poll

Associated Press
08/11/2005


JERUSALEM - Prime Minister Ariel Sharon could beat his top rival Benjamin Netanyahu in a race for prime minister if he leaves the Likud Party and establishes a new one with two other veteran politicians, according to a poll published Thursday in the Yediot Ahronot newspaper.

A new, centrist party lead by Sharon that would include current Vice Premier Shimon Peres and former minister Joseph Lapid could win 38 seats in the 120-member parliament over 14 for the Likud, the poll revealed.

link

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Eli


How long is this long run? It is not inconceivable that the new party will rule for the full 4 years after the next election. That's enough time for a leader to show up. We might see a Mapai like 30 years long rule.
.

But Israel is more mature politically now than in the fifities, no? Mapai ruled with rough, machine type tactics that simply wouldnt go now, in an Israel that has a fuller, more independent civil society.