The Disengagement Thread

[Sikander]

Originally posted by Eli


I'm not talking about some hypothetical baby-eating orders, but a basic request from a policeman to get away from the terrorist and stop throwing bricks on him and the other policemen.

???

The terrorist was disarmed and handcuffed by a local security officer and policemen. He was alive and not representing any danger. Video footage shows that he was walking in the bus, therefore he wasnt critically injured(he was bleeding though). The bus was quickly surrounded by a mob and people started entering the bus and throwing stuff at the terrorist and the policemen(some of whom were also injured). At the end of the incident, the terrorist was dead.

The police here would have started gunning people down. Some warning shots into a few in the front will really tend to disperse a crowd.

[Az]

The police here are really cautious, since 3 years ago, after 13 arab people were killed in riots, and after political pressure, an inquiry was opened.

[Eli]

Az is right. If the policemen would've used force the event could've deteriorated to widespread riots all across northern Israel.

[Az]

Of course, the police would be right now, as they were mostly, then. My god, I wonder why they opened fire, after a lynch mob murdered a guy on the expressway, and a rocks and crowbars were thrown on the said expressway.

[Eli]

Originally posted by Az
Of course, the police would be right now, as they were mostly, then. My god, I wonder why they opened fire, after a lynch mob murdered a guy on the expressway, and a rocks and crowbars were thrown on the said expressway.

Do you remember if the Or commitee established before or after the 2001 elections?

[Az]

Gov't decision on the establishment of the comission: October 23, 2000

Wiki is your friend

[lord of the mark]

seems to me Bibi has been playing this way to cleverly. Why wait so long to resign, when hed been playing the divisions in Likud for so long? I dont buy the "unilateral concession thing" since the strategy has been to do this unilaterally, since Arik thinks Gaza WEAKENS Israels negotiating position. I think Bibi is trying to position himself as the champion of the disengagement opponents, while still sounding pragmatic enough to be a plausible PM.

Did anyone see that the PA interior ministry forces arrested an Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade guy? Dahlan and Abbas are looking a bit ballsier lately, which would seem to bode well.

[Ramo]

Does Netanyahu take a chunk of Likud with him? How much support among Likud does Sharon have left?

[Eli]

Originally posted by Ramo
Does Netanyahu take a chunk of Likud with him?

No. He only resigned from the government.

How much support among Likud does Sharon have left?

Not too much, but still a bit more than Netanyahu. Recent polls showed that among Likud members support for Sharon is in the high and for Netanyahu in the low 30%s.

[Az]

Good god, both numbers don't even add up to 70? Does that mean that a Feiglin/Landau inside coalition force is strongly in the cards? ( but then again, the far right has been trying to take over the Likud for quite some time now...)

Both Feiglin and Landau are strong ideologically. I don't really see them matching up with Netaniyahu, since they won't trust him to hold up as leader of the right, especially with so much at stake, since it seems that another right-wing government is on the cards.

As one of the talking heads put it a couple of days ago ( Dan Margalit), all depends on the disengagement, and it's results. My guess is that the palestinians will attempt to make it a mixed bag, making the situation in Likud even more divided. However, the palestinian government has it's own interests too, I just wonder how well can they stand for them...


In any case, Labor sleeping thru another opportunity to take the government next year. Typical. It's kinda sad that the political Neanderthal Barak has to point that out for them. They should've quit now, so:

a) They would be able to be a real alternative to the government, since it's kinda silly to be an alternative if you were in the ruling coalition before ( ditto Shinui, which is coughing blood these days ).
b) The later they quit the more they will be associated with the budget. THEY SHOULD DISTANCE THEMSELVES FROM IT AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE for two reasons:
- They want to topple the government. If they do it late, they'll be blamed for Israel not having a proper budget by years end ( I can guarantee that this will be a problem, btw).
-They want to be an economic alternative to the government. Same as above - the longer they are, the more they are assosiated with the budget.

[Eli]

A new poll from Haaretz:

Poll: Netanyahu would wrest Likud leadership from Sharon

By Yossi Verter, Haaretz Correspondent, and Haaretz Service

In a dramatic power shift in the Likud, MK Benjamin Netanyahu would wrest control of the party from Prime Minister Ariel Sharon if an internal vote were held among party members today, a Haaretz poll has revealed.

Netanyahu, who quit his position as finance minister on Sunday, would win 47.2 percent of votes in a run for party leadership compared to 33.2 percent for Sharon, according to the Haaretz-Dialog poll. The victor in the internal vote would serve as the party's candidate for prime minister.

Netanyahu would also emerge victorious in a three-way runoff pitting Sharon, against Netanyahu and Uzi Landau, a leading opponent of the Gaza withdrawal who announced his candidacy for party leadership on Tuesday morning. Netanyahu would win 35 percent of the vote, Sharon 29.1 percent and Landau 17.3 percent.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/610570.html

[Az]

Fascinating. Simply Fascinating. This is such a bunch of interesting news, it's incredible.




EDIT: Spelling

[Ramo]

But if Netanyahu takes control of Likud, the Likud-Labour coalition will be kaput, right? What happens then? A minority gov't? A right-wing coalition gov't? A new election?

[Az]

The coalition is dead in the water anyhow. Labour have been making noises that they'll ditch the gov't anyhow, but after the disengagement.

A new election, and only god knows what will happen in the Likud, and with the Likud seats.

GODDAMN YOU LABOR. They have GOT to run a good campaign and take the government back. They have got to.

[Eli]

Originally posted by Ramo
But if Netanyahu takes control of Likud, the Likud-Labour coalition will be kaput, right? What happens then? A minority gov't? A right-wing coalition gov't? A new election?

AFAIK, Netanyahu is now working to move the Likud primaries to some date relatively soon after the disengagement. If he wins them, I dont see how Sharon can manage to hold the government.

Even today his coalition is an ad-hoc disengagement coalition, since out of Likud's 40 MKs about 15 vote against him and as a result he doesnt have the needed 61 votes to hold a coalition. But various peacenick parties outside the coalition stop all the attempts to dismiss parliament because they want the disengagement to happen.

After the disengagement this arrangement will no longer work and if in addition Netanyahu takes over the Likud, Sharon will have to go home.