Bolivia on the verge of revolution?

[lord of the mark]

"Most people in the third world don't see why their countries should be run for the benefit of people living Europe and North America. I think their case is unanswerable in that regard"

Statistically most people in the less developed world live in China or India. Where they seem to have concluded most definitively that trading with the rest of the world, allowing foreign direct investment, etc are the what is necessary for the benefit of their own people. In India, which is a democracy, that policy has now survived a couple of changes in the ruling party.


Of course China and India are not exporters of hydrocarbons.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by chegitz guevara
Without a vangaurd organization to take the revolution to its next step, it will not go anwhere. If the current government collapses, and nothing exists to replace it, the old elite will regain and retain power.

so? even if a vanguard organization DOES take power, and DOES nationalize the energy biz, its still possible the old elites will eventually infiltrate that organization and run the nationalized energy biz. See Mexico, PRI, and Pemex.

BTW, in Venezuala, its the NATIONALIZED oil company thats been resisting Chavez, isnt it? To a great degree elite power in Latin America is INDEPENDENT of capitalism as a form of social organization (and I dont here equate capitalism with the free market, but simply private ownership of the means of production)

[Agathon]

Stop being serious LOTM!!! We wants our Chegitz branded beer!!

[lord of the mark]

unfortunately its quite serious, aggie. Despite what we've been told here, its not just a tiny handful of La Paz "capitalists" who oppose nationalization. The provinces where the gas is actually found, are mainly non-Indian, and mainly oppose nationalization, and want more autonomy. If the left takes power, especially if, as seems possible, the left takes power by violence, rather than through elections, those provinces can be expected to resist.

[Agathon]

unfortunately its quite serious, aggie. Despite what we've been told here, its not just a tiny handful of La Paz "capitalists" who oppose nationalization. The provinces where the gas is actually found, are mainly non-Indian, and mainly oppose nationalization, and want more autonomy. If the left takes power, especially if, as seems possible, the left takes power by violence, rather than through elections, those provinces can be expected to resist.

You mean that the people in the areas where the gas is found (and mainly richer people in fact) want more, even though their only connection to the gas is the fact they they live there.

I've heard this sort of argument before in Canada. It's just people trying to get more for no good reasons. It's anti-democratic nonsense.

Besides, that appraisal of the situation is false according to the Beeb:

Far away from the highlands of La Paz, in the city of Santa Cruz in the country's south-east, another conflict has been brewing.

This region is home to the gas reserves and here, a powerful business elite mostly of European descent, exasperated by the continuing chaos, has been pushing for far greater regional autonomy and a bigger share of the region's gas and oil wealth.

This movement is largely opposed by the highland protesters - and, indeed, by a sizeable proportion of local indigenous people.

Leaders here have pledged to hold a referendum on increased autonomy on 12 August - with or without the approval of central government, setting the stage for further conflicts in future

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/4613993.stm

[Last Conformist]

The bit you quoted doesn't seem to contradict LOTM's claims.

[Agathon]

What? "A powerful business elite" isn't plausibly identified with "a tiny handful of La Paz "capitalists"?

Presumably the shopkeepers and small businessmen of La Paz cannot reasonably be conflated with "a powerful business elite" unless the meaning of "elite" has changed.

[lord of the mark]

i cant imagine everyone in those provinces is part of a business elite, or theyre the oddest provinces in Latin America. They ARE mainly European descended, IIUC, but thats not that unusual - and certainly not every South American of Euro descent is part of a business elite.

[Velociryx]

You mean that the people in the areas where the gas is found (and mainly richer people in fact) want more, even though their only connection to the gas is the fact they they live there.

Yep. Private ownership is a beautiful thing, and the people who own the land also have a claim to whatever might be buried beneath it.

All the most wildly successful economic entities on the planet owe their success TO this very mechanism. If the Bolivians decide to gut their own laws regarding private ownership and take the land by force, it makes sense to expect resistance by the current (rightful) owners.

Of course, many red revolutions have been based around the notion that might makes right, and if that occurs, this one will get off to a similar start, but we shall see.

-=Vel=-

[lord of the mark]

"Santa Cruz is a department in Bolivia. Population (2001 census) 2,029,471. The capital is the city of Santa Cruz de la Sierra.

The department covers a vast expanse of territory in eastern Bolivia, much of it rainforests, extending from the Andes to the border with Brazil. The department's economy depends largely on agriculture, with sugar, cotton, soybeans and rice being grown. In recent years, the discovery of natural gas in the department has led to plans for the development of a regional natural gas industry that will likely boost the local economy. In July 2004, the people of Bolivia voted in a nation-wide referendum to allow for regulated exportation of the gas.

The department is divided in 15 provinces."

[lord of the mark]

The NYT:

In Bolivia's Elitist Corner, There's Talk of Cutting Loose
By JUAN FORERO

Published: August 27, 2004

SANTA CRUZ, Bolivia - This low-lying city on the edge of the Amazon has long had something of a superiority complex, which was put embarrassingly on display in June at the Miss Universe competition. Bolivia's contestant, Gabriela Oviedo, a strapping Santa Cruz native, told judges that not all her countrymen were "poor people and very short people and Indian people."


"I'm from the other side of the country, from the east, where it's not cold," she added. "It's very hot, and we're tall, and we are white and can speak English."

The comments incensed the government in La Paz, the capital 13,000 feet in the Andes, which has struggled with restive indigenous groups whose uprisings have paralyzed the country in recent years. But Cruceños, as the people of Santa Cruz are called, have been decidedly vociferous in proclaiming their cultural, ethnic and social differences with Bolivian highlanders.

So remote do the troubles of the highlands seem, and so economically burdened do the people of this region rich in natural gas feel, that they have begun talking about autonomy and, in isolated cases, outright secession.

The rift between the highlands and this city and province, also called Santa Cruz, is emblematic of a country riven by regionalism and the centuries-old resentments between Bolivia's highland Indians and its traditional ruling classes.

Santa Cruz feels like another world from the highland's frigid, windswept plains. This city of 1.4 millionpeople is dotted with shining skyscapers. Cafes line busy streets, and broad avenues feature multinational companies, from Goodyear to Petrobras to Kia Motors. The city by itself generates nearly a third of Bolivia's gross domestic product, more than half its exports and most of its tax receipts. The affluent, who speak Portuguese as well as Spanish, look less to La Paz than east to Brazil, 100 miles closer.

"There are people here who do not recognize Bolivia," said Sergio Antelo, a former mayor and leader of a group, Camba Nation, whose members are particularly strident. "They are a nation apart, like a nation without a state."

The secession movement is still on the fringe, driven largely by emotion and, some critics say, racism, since some of its proponents are quick to point out that most inhabitants here are of mixed races, not full-blooded Aymara or Quechua Indians, as are the vast majority in the rest of this nation of eight million people.

But the sentiments underscore the increasingly hard feelings of Cruceños, who feel that President Carlos Mesa has made economically ruinous decisions at their expense as he tries to walk a line between indigenous groups doggedly opposed to globalization and businessmen who favor market reforms and economic ties with Bolivia's neighbors.

Forty years ago, Santa Cruz was a hot and dusty honky-tonk of dirt streets, crumbling colonial-era structures and grizzled frontiersmen. Secluded and poor, it had 50,000 people, many working in a nascent sugar industry.

But as hard-working migrants from across the country moved here, the province's percentage of Bolivia's total population rose from 15 percent in 1976 to 25 percent today. Foreign investment in Santa Cruz has shot up in recent years, while in Bolivia generally it has fallen. Today this city is the engine of Bolivia's economic growth.

Yet many Cruceños believe the city's future is uncertain, particularly since President Mesa held a referendum in July asking Bolivians whether the country should export natural gas while raising taxes and other restrictions on private energy companies.

The measure passed, but people here saw the very fact of a referendum as indicative of what they see as the government's weak-willed leadership in the face of pressure tactics from radical Indian groups.

"Economic issues should not be debated in a referendum," said Óscar Ortiz, general manager of the Cainco industrial group. "We are now in the calm before the storm."

Lorgio Balcázar, general manager of the Pro Santa Cruz Civic Committee, which favors autonomy, added: "We are headed to the abyss. No one wants to invest. There is no certainty."

[Last Conformist]

Originally posted by Agathon
What? "A powerful business elite" isn't plausibly identified with "a tiny handful of La Paz "capitalists"?

Not when said business elite appears to be located in Santa Cruz, no.

[Dinner]

Originally posted by Ted Striker
Chavez is bent on forming an anti-US coalition, not only in South America, but all over the world.

Other then Castro Chavez is not widely admired in Latin America. The most poular politician in Lation American right now is Lula due to his policies of balancing the budget, protecting property rights, and expanding social services. It doesn't hurt that Lula told the US/EU that he wouldn't agree to a free trade agreement until the farm subsidies get stopped in the first world.

[Dinner]

Originally posted by Agathon
A few years back some Bolivians managed to boot out Bechtel's water privatization scheme.

Yeah, and what's the end result of that? The people still don't have clean drinking water because they stupidly demanded that everyone get treated water for free. In order to establish a utility network pipes must be laid, pumping stations built, chemicals bought, engineers hired, workers hired, etc... That all costs money then you have to maintain the system which costs still more money.

The socialists are claiming the government should pay for all of this but the Bolivian government already had a debt crisis a few years back and it barely can service the debt it already has. Bolivia's state and local governments were counting on additional funds from the development of the natural gas sector but that is looking increasingly questionable. Not only would companies need to spend money surveying gas fields & drilling wells but they also have to build processing stations and (most expensively) they need to build a pipeline through a neighboring country so they can deliver LNG to a port so it can be exported to market. They're not going to spend those billions of dollars out of the goodness of their heart; they want to make a profit off of it.

[Dinner]

Originally posted by Agathon

Evidently the Lula govt in Brazil doesnt have much patience with this sort of thing.

The Lula government is largely a joke.

Lula is very popular in Latin America even if you commies don't like him. Lula is a moderately left of center politician who understands that in order to pay for social services you need a growing economy. Thus he's promoting sound economic policies while also boosting spending on education, health care, pensions, and pushing land reform.

Land reform might become problematic for Brazil in the long run since Lula is talking about taxing large estates (like cattle ranches) to break them up then giving away the land to peasants for next to nothing. Brazil needs exports to grow its economy and the last thing it needs are more poverty stricken peasant farmers on lots so small they can't even feed themselves. I'd be pushing a greatly expanded small business administration if I was in charge of Brazil. Try to get more start up companies running as that is where the jobs will come from which will make people's lives better. Not tiny farms with depleted tropical soils.