Oil continues its slippery slide...blahblahblah, DanS?

[DanS]

So "vast" could be "miniscule"?

No, it couldn't be miniscule. Even a reasonable lower limit would be "vast".

Let's put it this way. This whole oil age began with oil being gathered from the surface Clinton sands in Pennsylvania. Basically, it boiled up from the ground. In the meantime, we have explored a modest amount around the world and to relatively shallow depths on land and some coastal areas and have found it to be a plentiful commodity so far.

[Flubber]

Originally posted by DanS
.

There's this bizarre notion that we will just pump the oil dry and then we'll all be fvcked without any good alternatives. Bkeela's getting himself off on this scenario. Sitting here right now, I can guarantee that this will not happen, because there already are alternatives available that could be utilized on a mass scale.

Agreed. It is silly to the extreme to think oil will get pumped dry anytime soon. The reality is that there will always be some oil that is so expensive to get that other alternatives will beat it by such a wide margin , its unreasonable.If oil gets increasingly scarce. its price will go up and up making alternatives more attractive. In north America there are huge untapped hydro electric possibilities in places like Labrador

I know places in northern Canada where the companies drill hoping NOT to find oil. The search is for natural gas and with other gas finds , a gas pipe will be economic but oil is nowhere near there yet.

[Flubber]

Originally posted by DanS
In the meantime, we have explored a modest amount around the world and to relatively shallow depths on land and some coastal areas and have found it to be a plentiful commodity so far.

yup

So even though we don't KNOW what else is out there, reasonable assumptions indicate that there is still a lot to get.

The latest info I saw in an industry journal predicted that we had oil ( counting only the stuff that is "proven") that would last until something like 2040. The article used a lot of qualifications but their point was if exploration stopped tomorrow, we would be good for 35 years.

Oil companies continue massive exploration efforts because there is more out there. heck new concepts abound. They are producing methane from coalbeds and producing from formations ( called "tight sands") where it wasn't economic to do so even a few years ago

[General Ludd]

Originally posted by DanS


No, it couldn't be miniscule. Even a reasonable lower limit would be "vast".

Personally, I'm of the opinion that when talking about a limited resource that is being consumed at an exponetially increasing rate, that "miniscule" is a safer bet than "vast" (atleast, when talking within a practical context).

[DanS]

Hey, KrazyHorse worked up a thought experiment the other day where human beings would comprise the entire mass of the universe in about 11,000 years at a 0.6% annual population growth rate.

Could happen.

[General Ludd]

Originally posted by DanS
Hey, KrazyHorse worked up a thought experiment the other day where human beings would comprise the entire mass of the universe in about 11,000 years at a 0.6% annual population growth rate.

Could happen.

Is your point that oil useage won't continue to grow exponentially? Obviously, yes, because there is only so much of it. Just like growth rates won't continue, simply because people would die enmasse at a certain point when they are no longer able to sustain themselves.

[DanS]

The point is that your opinion is absurd, in that if you follow your logic to its conclusion, you could make the entire mass of the universe out to "miniscule" rather than "vast". 11,000 years isn't that far off, after all.

[General Ludd]

Originally posted by DanS
The point is that your opinion is absurd, in that if you follow your logic to its conclusion, you could make the entire mass of the universe out to "miniscule" rather than "vast". 11,000 years isn't that far off, after all.

If humans where expanding at that rate, then yes, it would be miniscule. But we'll reach our limits and begin to die enmasse long before you ever have to consider the mass of the universe. "The universe" doesn't even factor into it, all we have is Earth.

[DanS]

all we have is Earth

That's a bull**** meme, but that's for another thread.

If humans where expanding at that rate, then yes, it would be miniscule.

Well, obviously if we used oil at a 0.6% growth rate per year, you would have to say that any amount is "miniscule" under your logic.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by DanS
Hey, KrazyHorse worked up a thought experiment the other day where human beings would comprise the entire mass of the universe in about 11,000 years at a 0.6% annual population growth rate.

Could happen.

Don't be ridiculous.

It took almost 16000 in my model.

[KrazyHorse]

Speaking of that, I wonder why I've never seen that statistic before.

If I was the first person to come up with that and it spreads around like other popular factoids I'm going to feel very proud of myself.

[DanS]

You know, I actually calculated it out myself to try different scenarios. Must have been 0.65% or something that I was thinking about. It was fun.

[DanS]

Speaking of that, I wonder why I've never seen that statistic before.

Don't give the ZPGers any ideas! They would add that to their "we only have one earth" idiocy.

[MOBIUS]

Personally I think oil price rises are a good thing

[General Ludd]

Originally posted by DanS


That's a bull**** meme, but that's for another thread.



Well, obviously if we used oil at a 0.6% growth rate per year, you would have to say that any amount is "miniscule" under your logic.

You're applying your own logic to my argument.


The universe isn't a realisticly finite resource, oil is.