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God, this is like some crazy cult waiting on the beach for the apocalypse.
So far the only denials of Peak Oil theory I have heard involve leaps of faith.
Can you do better?
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So far the only denials of Peak Oil theory I have heard involve leaps of faith.
Can you do better?Only feebs vote. -
Sure. I can point to the fact that a peak on a global scale has never been reached before this (i.e., no empirical evidence of a global peak is available). Also, as pchang makes clear, there are vast uncounted reserves available at higher price points.Last edited by DanS; March 18, 2005, 12:39.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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Yeah sure. How much is "vast?" Is it going to make a difference at all. I doubt it.I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
- Justice Brett KavanaughComment
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Nobody knows.How much is vast?I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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Sure. I can point to the fact that a peak on a global scale has never been reached before this (i.e., no empirical evidence of a global peak is available).
Peak Oil theory is simply an application of the law of supply and demand. That is an a priori notion, so the empirical does not apply.
We know that oil is a finite resource and that's enough to know that at some point demand will outstrip supply and the price will go up as scarcity increases.
When this will happen, and whether it will matter a great deal or not (other energy sources being tapped, etc.) is the empirical question.
Also, as pchang makes clear, there are vast uncounted reserves available at higher price points.
Which will just delay the inevitable.
Opponents of peak oil theory tend to say that some other energy resource will take over or become more economically feasible. But that is an empirical issue, which they seem to regard in some cases as an a priori certainty.
But no-one has come up with anything that is as cheap as oil or is likely to be as cheap as oil.Only feebs vote.Comment
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How do we know that demand will outstrip supply? You don't know that.We know that oil is a finite resource and that's enough to know that at some point demand will outstrip supply and the price will go up as scarcity increases.
Supply is impacted by price and indeed the relevant energy supply market includes sources other than oil at various price points. For instance, you can economically make gasoline out of coal at a price point not much higher than $55 a barrel. I have no doubt that we would eventually run out of oil absent market forces, but you can't just ignore the market forces to gin up fear of a crisis.
No one has come up with anything as cheap and convenient as oil so far. That's why we use it, obviously. But the world would go on just fine with a source of energy other than oil at a higher price point. The economy is growing rather well at a $55 price/barrel oil price point, after all.But no-one has come up with anything that is as cheap as oil or is likely to be as cheap as oil.Last edited by DanS; March 18, 2005, 13:40.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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The question is how much of the current price is due to faster economic growth than expected and long run conditions of the market. I think it's more the latter. If it's due to recent economic growth than the price would fall, but most people don't expect that to happen.I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
- Justice Brett KavanaughComment
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How do we know that demand will outstrip supply? You don't know that.
Because it's a finite resource that is the cheapest alternative that we know of right now.
Assuming that it won't is either assuming that it's (a) not finite, which is absurd; or (b) assuming that it will become possible to produce some other energy source at the same or cheaper price.
The problem is that no-one has any idea whether (b) is true or not, so it is just silly to say that the market will fix it, since it may well be physically unfixable.
Supply is impacted by price and indeed the relevant energy supply market includes sources other than oil at various price points. For instance, you can economically make gasoline out of coal at a price point not much higher than $55 a barrel. I have no doubt that we would eventually run out of oil absent market forces, but you can't just ignore the market forces to gin up fear of a crisis.
I'm not ignoring them at all. I'm just pointing out that markets are powerless to do the physically impossible.
No one has come up with anything as cheap and convenient as oil so far. That's why we use it, obviously. But the world would go on just fine with a source of energy other than oil at a higher price point. The economy is growing rather well at a $55 price/barrel oil price point, after all.
That's just a leap of faith. We have no idea of what the eventual price point will be and whether it will be low enough to maintain things as they are. Similarly, moving to coal just postpones the problem. Assuming the market will fix every problem assumes that every problem is fixable.
We simply don't know what will happen. So, as in all such cases, we should proceed with caution.Only feebs vote.Comment
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You're losing the context of the price. Inherent in the price of oil is a perception about how plentiful oil is. There is no fixed price for oil. There's no inherent quality of oil that makes it the cheapest alternative. We could wake up tomorrow and find out that oil is no longer the cheapest alternative. It wouldn't take any technology breakthroughs or anything.Because it's a finite resource that is the cheapest alternative that we know of right now.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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It's takes awhile for the effect to work through the economy. We won't really know the expensive oil is hurting the economy until damage is already done.Originally posted by DanS
The economy is growing rather well at a $55 price/barrel oil price point, after all.I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
- Justice Brett KavanaughComment
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Originally posted by DanS
Nobody knows.
Thats probably the most accurate statement about oil reserves that can be made. Heck I am sitting in the office of an oil company right now and I can tell you that after running 2 D seismic and then 3D, the geophsicists have little idea if there is anything in a given spot. Wven after a first well, you have little idea of the size of a find.
Take big projects off the east coast of Canada . . . Even after a dozen wells into the Hibernia pool they are still revising the amount of recoverable oil. It used to be less than 700 million barrels and now its over 900 million. meanwhile Sable seriously downgraded its natural gas reserves.
These are fields that have been drilled a fair bit and experts still don't know. In areas that have not been drilled or are sparsely drilled, we frankly have no idea. Take the Orphan Basin in offshore Newfoundland-- Companies have committed to 600 million dollars of exploration work there but they could find nothing and they could find a few billion barrell fields.
Its uncertain and that the only certainty.You don't get to 300 losses without being a pretty exceptional goaltender.-- Ben Kenobi speaking of Roberto LuongoComment
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Originally posted by DanS
You're losing the context of the price. Inherent in the price of oil is a perception about how plentiful oil is. There is no fixed price for oil. There's no inherent quality of oil that makes it the cheapest alternative. We could wake up tomorrow and find out that oil is no longer the cheapest alternative. It wouldn't take any technology breakthroughs or anything.
While I agree with your point partially, a consumer won't just "wake up tomorrow" to a a new alternative. Its an evolution. As oil prices increase, energy producers around the world are looking to alternatives that become more feasible again. Think hydro, wind, nuclear even coal-- all of these have a whole different economic dynamic if you assume 50 dollar oil compared to 30 dollar oil.You don't get to 300 losses without being a pretty exceptional goaltender.-- Ben Kenobi speaking of Roberto LuongoComment
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Yes, it's an evolution, but the price tipping against oil could happen at any time. You would still use oil under this reality, just that you would prefer to use other things and would increasingly tend to use other things.
There's this bizarre notion that we will just pump the oil dry and then we'll all be fvcked without any good alternatives. Bkeela's getting himself off on this scenario. Sitting here right now, I can guarantee that this will not happen, because there already are alternatives available that could be utilized on a mass scale.
Yup YupThink hydro, wind, nuclear even coal-- all of these have a whole different economic dynamic if you assume 50 dollar oil compared to 30 dollar oil.Last edited by DanS; March 18, 2005, 14:36.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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So "vast" could be "miniscule"? If you don't know, maybe you should refrain from trying to quantify it....Originally posted by DanS
Nobody knows.
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Do It OurselvesComment
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I don't know who holds that notion. I just think the price is going to keep going up and we're going to be ****ed due to that.Originally posted by DanS
There's this bizarre notion that we will just pump the oil dry and then we'll all be fvcked without any good alternatives. Bkeela's getting himself off on this scenario. Sitting here right now, I can guarantee that this will not happen, because there already are alternatives available that could be utilized on a mass scale.I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
- Justice Brett KavanaughComment
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