Tweet
latest numbers ARE 2002, 1990 - 2000 shoulda been used i guess.
-
"Everything for the State, nothing against the State, nothing outside the State" - Benito Mussolini -
Err, no it's not it's a normal PPP - nothing to do with productivity.Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia
1. so first you took EKS PPP, which is a productivity/GDP number
It's the PPP measure used by the OECD, they switched from the older GK method in 1990.
From the OECD Economic Outlook no.76, you can download the annex tables here (listed as Demand and Output: EO76 Annex Tables - the estimate of the output gap is in the last tab in the workbook)Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia
2. where did you get the OECDs estimate for output gap, and what formula did you use to adjust it?
To convert GDP to 'trend gdp' I used the formula GDP/(1+output gap percentage)
Again from the OECD, use the same page and follow the link 'Annual National Accounts for OECD Member Countries - Data from 1970 onwards' - you want section 4a 'Disposable Income, Saving and Net Lending/Borrowing', the variable is called 'Net primary incomes from the rest of the world'Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia
3. where did you get net property income from abroad, and in what way did you add it.
The reason I chose 2002 was because the PPPs are only calculated triennially (i.e. in 1990, 1993, 1996, 1999 and 2002) so I cannot use the 2000 data without compomising the comparability of the series.Originally posted by Oerdin
I find it highly suspicious that they choice the end date of 2002, when the US was in recession, to make their comparison. Why not do a ten year comparison between 1990-2000 or use the latest numbers available 1990-2004? Unless of course there is something to hide and someone is trying to make one party look good and another party look bad?
This is the main reason I use the OECD's estimates of the output gap to correct for the effects of the economic cycle.Last edited by el freako; March 10, 2005, 16:32.19th Century Liberal, 21st Century EuropeanComment
-
You are telling me that 2003's numbers aren't available two years after the fact? I'm sure most of 2004's numbers are likely out as well.Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia
latest numbers ARE 2002, 1990 - 2000 shoulda been used i guess.Try http://wordforge.net/index.php for discussion and debate.Comment
-
You'd be wrong, Oerdin. It takes amazingly long before such numbers are gathered, consolidated, and analyzed.Why can't you be a non-conformist just like everybody else?
It's no good (from an evolutionary point of view) to have the physique of Tarzan if you have the sex drive of a philosopher. -- Michael Ruse
The Nedaverse I can accept, but not the Berzaverse. There can only be so many alternate realities. -- ElokComment
-
I DanS's you, see my edit above - PPPs are not calculated every year.Originally posted by Oerdin
You are telling me that 2003's numbers aren't available two years after the fact? I'm sure most of 2004's numbers are likely out as well.
The OECD's PPPs are updated every three years (the EKS figures are available for 1990, 1993, 1996, 1999 and 2002 - before that the GK data was available every 5 years back to 1970).
It does take a long time to compile this data (just think how many thousands of prices have to be measured even in one country - then multiply that by comparisons between that country and the 29 other members of the OECD, then do that for all 30 countries)19th Century Liberal, 21st Century EuropeanComment
-
I'm really not sure why all the fancy numbers when it seems like comparing PPP Per Capita income numbers would be simpler and just as accurate if we want to compare individual incomes.Try http://wordforge.net/index.php for discussion and debate.Comment
-
so PPP EKS, is that a median or what? you are comparing median (mean?) incomes across countries and what they can buy relative to one another?"Everything for the State, nothing against the State, nothing outside the State" - Benito MussoliniComment
-
First, most people use GDP to compare - this is all very well if you are comparing production but Gross National Income is usually different than GDP, the difference in the US's case is only 0.3% but for other countries it can be significant - for example Ireland's GNI is nearly 20% less than it's GDP.Originally posted by Oerdin
I'm really not sure why all the fancy numbers when it seems like comparing PPP Per Capita income numbers would be simpler and just as accurate if we want to compare individual incomes.
Secondly my main task is to have the numbers as comparable to each other as possible, which is why I corrected for the economic cycle.
But if you wish I will post GDP per capita figures for 1990 and 2002 as well.
EKS are the initals of the economists who came up with this method of calculating PPP, it is calculated by comparing prices for a similar set of goods and services between the 'host' country and all other member states of the OECD (plus a few more as well I think)Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia
so PPP EKS, is that a median or what? you are comparing median (mean?) incomes across countries and what they can buy relative to one another?
The income is a mean, it is the level of GNI (which is GDP + net primary incomes from abroad) divided by that countries total population.19th Century Liberal, 21st Century EuropeanComment
-
You say that "you" corrected for the economic cycle. How exactly??Originally posted by el freako
Secondly my main task is to have the numbers as comparable to each other as possible, which is why I corrected for the economic cycle.
If a country had growth during the entire period that was lower than historical averages would this be corrected as a long recession or would some of it be corrected or none??
I don't dispute that Europe may have "gained" on the US since there were some weaker economies that had more room to grow in a sense. But I am intrigued by what methodology would be used in a measure of economic performance to correct for ups and downs in economic performanceYou don't get to 300 losses without being a pretty exceptional goaltender.-- Ben Kenobi speaking of Roberto LuongoComment
-
Yeah. I don't know about using Output Gap to measure the effect of economic cycles. During the last couple of decades businesses have been running with more of a gap in output intentially.I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
- Justice Brett KavanaughComment
-
Don't get me wrong. I'm not questioning that ef is trying to get at the correct figures and that he's in the right ballpark. I just think that the fudge factor is a little too large to come to such precise conclusions.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
-
Originally posted by DanS
Don't get me wrong. I'm not questioning that ef is trying to get at the correct figures and that he's in the right ballpark. I just think that the fudge factor is a little too large to come to such precise conclusions.
Likewise I don't question his intent, just wonder as the the methodology
How would the numbers differ if you had not adjusted them? ( I am not saying the unadjusted numbers are more reflective, again just curious as to how things were done)You don't get to 300 losses without being a pretty exceptional goaltender.-- Ben Kenobi speaking of Roberto LuongoComment
-
I'd like to apologize to El Freako on my part. I just realized I should be a bit more happy about this.. cause I happen to be European born and much of my family whether it be on my mom's or dad's side is in Europe (Spain and Italy). Sorry.For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)Comment
-
ill try to reproduce his results later tonite to see if i can come up with the same numbers."Everything for the State, nothing against the State, nothing outside the State" - Benito MussoliniComment
-
Well not actually 'me' - I used the OECD's estimates of the output gap.Originally posted by Flubber
You say that "you" corrected for the economic cycle. How exactly??
The methodology used is described in the OECD paper Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances19th Century Liberal, 21st Century EuropeanComment
Comment