Taiwan: Would War be viable?

[GePap]

Originally posted by lord of the mark


IIUC India has taken advantage of its proximity to the Persian Gulf to purchase LNG delivered by tanker for gas fired power plants.

From Iran and UAE, right?

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by GePap


From the reaction of Vel, Drakie Pooh and Plato, obviously NOT yet a truism.

I only read vel, and his comments seemed reasonable. How and when China surpasses US GDP, and how that relates to Indias growth, remain open questions.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by GePap


From Iran and UAE, right?

Mainly by sea from UAE, i think, with plans for a pipeline from Iran currently in the news.

[Drake Tungsten]

I only read vel, and his comments seemed reasonable.

I didn't even comment on China. Typical GePap accuracy...

[Tingkai]

Originally posted by Velociryx
Yes, I can see how his essays to the Japanese version of our "Fed" on interest rates and "The Case for Free Trade" would prove ruinous to their economy (both of these offered during Japan's extended period of economic doldrums, found after about a thirty second google search).

-=Vel=-

Vel, your theory that American economists like Friedman contributed to Japan's economic success is simply wrong.

Just because Friedman writes about the Japanese economy means nothing. Friedman can talk all he wants about what he thinks Japan should do, but his ideas have not, and are not, being put into practice.

Japan succeeded by doing the opposite of what Friedman suggests. It continues to intervene in the currency markets to keep the Yen-dollar rate stable, something that Friedman would argue against.

There is simply no connection between Friedman and Japan's success.

[PLATO]

Originally posted by GePap


From the reaction of Vel, Drakie Pooh and Plato, obviously NOT yet a truism.

[Whoha]

Vel, let me ask you this since you are quick to point out china's faults: is the US doing everything correctly/enough correctly to not lose its current position?

[Velociryx]

Molly: Woulda gone into greater detail, but it was more of a tangential point to the main one, so...simplify, simplify, simplify....is more the mantra there. Point taken tho...

Ting: So we can take Friedman out...I suppose you'll also wanna take out the gazillion or so effieciency experts and process control guys who went to Japan and basically set down the structure of the modern japanese company (naysayed and ignored in the US until Japan started opening a big can of whooparse on us). They had nothing to do with that success either, right?

Ge: Not sure where the mystery is. I have agreed that both China and India have the potential. What I disagree on is the "inevitibility" of their surpassing.

Here's a newsflash. China is a very old nation. They've had this economic potential for quite some time....before the US was even a glimmer in anybody's eye, and yet....they've not been able to successfully do anything with it for that entire span of time.

So now, they begin to do a few things right, and you start spouting off about inevitability? I don't get it.

Here are a few things off the top of my head that can totally derail the progress made so far:

* China's authoritarian government pulling the plug on the Market. Can be done simply by decree, if they grow to fear the effects it is having on their population.

* Capital flight, if China does something stupid (like oh....invading Taiwan), causing much of the rest of the industrialized world to balk at further investments there.

* General contractions in the economy....very punishing to developing economices like China's.

* Bad decisions on the topic of monetary policy

* War with India (as the other big kid on the block, it could happen, causing LOTS of death and destruction and vastly eroding their huge edge in population). Note too that war between these two giants may well involve some limited nuclear exchange.

But you're right....my gosh...it's...inevitable!

Whoa: I believe that the US isn't doing absolutely everything it could, no....always room for improvement, but then again, the US can get by with smaller growth rates and stay ahead on account of the vast size of its economy (the difference on paper between 6.6 and 10.99 doesn't look like all that much until you add the words "trillion dollars" to the end of it....at which time, it becomes a compelling difference indeed).

Of course China will grow faster for a time...they started off so much smaller that rapid early growth is expected, and in fact, necessary if they are to survive. As they get bigger, however, that growth will slow down dramatically, and be harder to come by, just as it is here.

-=Vel=-

-=Vel=-

[Tingkai]

Originally posted by Velociryx

Ting: So we can take Friedman out...I suppose you'll also wanna take out the gazillion or so effieciency experts and process control guys who went to Japan and basically set down the structure of the modern japanese company (naysayed and ignored in the US until Japan started opening a big can of whooparse on us). They had nothing to do with that success either, right?

Well, I'm glad to see that you can admit when you're wrong.

As for the efficiency experts, they were not that significant. They appeared long after the Japanese economy was booming and remember that it was the Japanese who decided to move into high-quality goods so the Japanese should be given credit for the decision.

Why are you so unwilling to acknowledge the work done by the Japanese in creating their miracle? Why are you so intent on trying to give credit to the Americans?

Japan's economic success was due to the hard work of the Japanese combined with a carefully regulated market where government and businesses worked together to achieve set goals. The American contribution was minor.

[Drake Tungsten]

Except for the Korean War spending, that is...

[Patroklos]

And making them a capitalist democracy in the first place. And making sure they didn't all starve to death afterward.

Why are you so intent on downplaying the role of America in Japan's economy.

[DaShi]

Because he hates America with all of his body (including his pee pee).

[sprucemoose3311]

i agree with everything Velociryx has said so far

[Drake Tungsten]

I agree with everything DaShi has said so far.

[Tingkai]

Originally posted by Patroklos
And making them a capitalist democracy in the first place. And making sure they didn't all starve to death afterward.

Why are you so intent on downplaying the role of America in Japan's economy.

Japan's economic miracle occurred before WWII so it is difficult to say that the switch to democracy had a significant impact on Japan's post-war growth. If Japan economy grew significantly under the emperor then it is reasonable to assume it would have continued to do so in the post-war period.


As for downplaying America's role, the problem is that there is no indication that the US significantly contributed to Japan's success. If you believe that the US did, then show me how it did.

What can be said is that Japan chose a different route to develop its economy compared to the route taken by the US.