Danish Elections Called

[Winston]

Yes.

It's a monumental loss to political cartoonists everywhere.

Lately he lost the glasses as well and adopted a very short hair cut compared to what he's had for the past 25 years. Let go of the tie right after the election was called. I wonder if there's anyone he wants to make an impression on?

Shortly after he became Party Leader in 2002, he also divorced his wife of 20 years BTW, after it became publicly known that she suffered from recurring depression. NOT first lady material any longer, sorry!

This man has got to be the ultimate dream of every stylist and spindoctor North of the Swiss Alps.

[Stefu]

Is Pia Kjaersgaard still around? How's her party expected to do?

[Winston]

She's still very much around yes. Much to her disappointment though, it doesn't look like immigration issues will play as large a part in this campaign as it did in 2001. A hardline approach on immigration is after all about 75% of her party's entire platform. But the government has succeeded in bringing the number of immigrants down to an almost historic low point already, so Pia Kjærsgaard and Dansk Folkeparti (Danish People's Party) could face a bit of a fight to hold on to their 12.0% share of the vote from 2001.

The three latest polls from my daily paper (Nov., Dec., Jan.) however give them 11.6, 12.5 and 11.4%, so depending on the ongoing campaign, they might do all right. They've been a surprisingly reliable part of much of the government's legislation over the past three years, considering they are basically a protest party, and oddly enough their (protest) voters may actually end up giving them credit for just that at the polls. The majority of their voters are former Social Democrats, so their continued support with the voters plays an important part in explaining why the Liberal-Conservative block is currently so very strong in Danish politics.

[Winston]

A fresh opinion poll from Jyllands-Posten conducted among 888 voters from 18-20 January predicts a landslide victory for PM Anders Fogh Rasmussen and Venstre.

It gives Venstre 35.7% and 65 seats, compared to 26.8% and 49 seats for the Social Democrats.

The poll also asked for the voters' preferred candidate for the position of Prime Minister. 50.4% pointed to Anders Fogh Rasmussen, and only 18.3% to Mogens Lykketoft. The rest were either undecided or pointed to others, Radikale Venstre's Marianne Jelved getting the most at 7.1%.

According to the poll, only six parties will be represented in Folketinget, the Danish Parliament. See graphic below for number of seats by party (left column is the government and its supporter; V=Venstre (Liberals), C=Conservatives, DF=Danish People's Party, right column is the opposition parties; A=Social Democrats, B=Radikale Venstre (Social Liberals), SF=Socialist People's Party). The 4 North Atlantic seats are left out of polls, and so the total here is 175 compared to 179 in the actual Folketing.

[Gangerolf]

Why the strange abbreviations (A, B and C)?

[Winston]

Goes back to the 1920's I think when there were only 4 parties, and so they were given the letters A, B, C and D. Venstre was D back then, but changed its letter to V in the 1950's I believe.

Parties can choose their letter freely, except for the rather obvious X which isn't allowed.

Danish People's Party is O, and Socialist People's Party F, but they're sometimes abbreviated normally, since they're not among the 4 "old" parties.

[Winston]

A Gallup poll in today's Berlingske Tidende reveals that half of Social Democrat voters believe that their party leader, Mogens Lykketoft's leadership abilities are worse than those of Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Venstre.

Responding to a direct question, only one third of Lykketoft's own backers believe that he outperforms Fogh Rasmussen when it comes to "real" leadership.

Mogens Lykketoft told the paper he has "given up" commenting on such polls...

[Stefu]

IT APPEARS TO BE OBVIOUS THAT THE BEARD-SHAVING WAS A GRAVE MISTAKE

Anyway, to stop with the frivolous commentary for a minute*, for Denmark if they stick with Rasmussen. We should have someone like him here in Finland.

*: Personally, I've always felt people shouldn't be ashamed to admit that they judge leaders at least partly, no matter how small that part is, on the basis of looks and other silliness. Everybody does it, and if they don't, they most likely are dirty hippies.

[Winston]

Don't really know if one's allowed to say so, but I just love the cockfighting theme of Jyllands-Posten's satiricals.

(From top left, clockwise: Mogens Lykketoft (Social Democrats), PM Anders Fogh Rasmussen (Venstre), Bendt Bendtsen (Conservatives), Marianne Jelved (Radikale Venstre))

[Winston]

The one above was actually the first one, when everybody had all their feathers intact.

This one from today's paper deals with a rather trivial matter which nonetheless has influenced the political debate here for several weeks. As of 1 January, holders of the most common credit card here Dankortet have to pay a fee to their bank of DKK .50 (USD .08) per transaction when using the card to do their shopping.

The Dankort-fee of DKK .50 has become a strain on the government's campaign.

Anders Fogh says: "Will you put an end to this matter already! It'll ruin us!"

(Note: There's a wordplay in Danish which can't be translated, but I found another one, sort of. )

[Winston]

Latest poll by Rambøll, conducted for Jyllands-Posten among 1102 voters from 24-27 January resulted in 61 seats for Venstre, compared to 45 for the Social Democrats; overall 99 seats for the government and its supporter, 76 for the opposition.

Below is a graphic of the poll's results, compared to previous polls and the election of 2001.

Translated rows:

A Socialdemokratiet = Social Democrats
B Det Radikale Venstre = Social Liberals
C Det Konservative Folkeparti = Conservatives
D Centrum-Demokraterne = Center Democrats
F Socialistisk Folkeparti = Socialist People's Party
M Minoritetspartiet = Minority Party ()
O Dansk Folkeparti = Danish People's Party
K Kristendemokraterne = Christian Democrats
V Venstre = Liberals
Z Fremskridtspartiet = Progress Party
Ø Enhedslisten = Far-left Socialists

Translated columns:

1) Blue = Election 2001, % of votes
2) White = Opinion poll, Nov 2004, % of votes
3) White = Opinion poll, 18-20 Jan 2005, % of votes
4) Yellow = This opinion poll, 24-27 Jan 2005, % of votes
5) Change from Election 2001 till now, % of votes
6) Blue = Seats in Parliament, Election 2001
7) Yellow = Predicted seats in Parliament, this opinion poll

The 4 North Atlantic seats are left out of polls, and so the total number of seats here is 175, compared to 179 in the actual Parliament.

/me concludes all is well in the Kingdom.

[Winston]

/me emerges on horizon and moves, occasionally overtaken by the odd tumbleweed, within shouting distance

Helloo-o! Anybody here?

[Gangerolf]

Vote Z

[Winston]

Oh Rolfie, you know they aren't even running this time. Funny to think they once held >15% of the vote and 28 seats in Parliament.

But you still have yours relatively intact in Norway?

Incidentally, how do you like the Minority Party with a predicted .1%. Finally a (small) bunch of politicians who actually call things by their real name!

[Gangerolf]

Oh they are intact. Second largest party with about 20% of the votes. But I don't think they're comparable to the Danish FrP. I think they're more like Dansk Folkeparti. And no, they won't be getting my vote.


Who are the Minority party?