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  • #31
    ummm I certainly have given points to the contrary, just cuz u dont like em doesn't negate their existance.

    umm... did you see any of my posts? i answer many of them, point by point.

    also its pretty clear ur biasing a lot of ur points w/ adjectives like ludicrous. and the seemingly random US bashing is a lil disturbing too. basically ur saying "omg japan has nukes" we're s. korea lets build a ****load! and Im saying tha twont happen. I not saying s. korea wont get any, just that this ever escalating japan/s. korea arms race wont happen.

    why not? i'm asking. you've said it won't happen because "it makes no sense"

    u've conceeded neither consider military action as a viable resolution of conflict between the two. and that there are more dangerous nations in the region THAT ALREADY HAVE NUKES. but u still u insist an ardent pacifist like japan posessing nukes will ignite a firestorm th elikes of which the world has not witnessed before.

    "firestorm"? no. that's not what i said. i said that it would trigger an arms race. not specifically between japan and skorea, but more between all of east asia.

    china might play games but they have all the nukes they need wrt japan. like I've already said and u haven't disagreed w/.

    you're right, i didn't disagree. but i also think you're wrong in that they wouldn't spend more if japan remilitarized.

    so I really dont know where that leaves u? I guess to flame me again. I really thot this was winding down then all of a sudden u flared it back up.

    when did i ever flame you?

    ======


    how about i finally bring evidence to the table?
    Where will this lead? How about a nuclear arms race in Asia? North Korea is not the only proliferation problem on the Korean peninsula. In March 1994, the head of the South Korean National Security Planning Agency, Suh Su- Joong, revealed that former President Roh Tae Woo had approved a covert nuclear weapons program. South Korea has also successfully tested a mobile missile launcher and has more than 24 tons of plutonium on hand.
    There are at least two other countries in Asia that can produce nuclear weapons within months if they so choose- Japan and Taiwan.
    According to the CIA, Taiwan, Israel and the then apartheid regime in South Africa tested a nuclear weapon over the South Atlantic on Sept. 22, 1979. We can assume the Taiwanese didn't throw away the blueprints from that test and can recreate it any time it wishes.
    And in May of last year, Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary, Yasuo Fukuda, said that Japan was considering abandoning its long-term opposition to nuclear weapons. In the face of Korean and Chinese alarm, the government backed away from the statement, but experts agree it would be easy for Japan to build nuclear weapons.

    Sowing The Wind (Conn Hallinan, San Fransisco Examiner)

    Vice President **** Cheney raised the specter this weekend, saying a nuclear-armed North Korea could incite neighboring nations to build their own bombs.
    Such an Asian arms race could spill over from Pyongyang to Tokyo and put some of the world's most populous areas in the shadow of atomic weapons. Some could even end up being possessed by previously reluctant powers like South Korea or Taiwan.
    Analysts admit that's unlikely to happen soon but warn it could erupt if North Korea keeps dabbling with atoms.
    "There's a very high likelihood that North Korea's possession of nuclear weapons will trigger an arms race in East Asia," said Paik Haksoon, a North Korea expert with the Sejong Institute, a foreign relations think tank outside Seoul.

    Just last month, Japan's Defense Agency admitted that Tokyo considered developing its own nuclear arsenal in 1995 to counter the threat of a nuclear-armed North Korea. But Tokyo ultimately rejected the idea because it might deprive Japan of U.S. military protection and alarm Asian countries.
    Paik said a nuclear Japan would likely trigger a domino effect, with China buttressing its own arsenal of an estimated 410 warheads as an insurance policy. Pointing to its nuclear-armed neighbors and the potential increased threat from Beijing, Taiwan would then feel justified in joining the atomic club, he said.

    Japan has no aircraft carriers, bombers or long-range missiles to project force. And as the only nation attacked by nuclear weapons, by the United States at the end of World War II, there is ingrained abhorrence of possessing atomic bombs.
    But building them would not take long.
    Japan has approximately 72 tons of plutonium in spent fuel rods from its nuclear power plants, according to 1999 figures of the International Atomic Energy Commission. North Korea, by contrast, is believed to possess no more than 66 pounds.
    Both South Korea and Japan have largely relied on the U.S. nuclear umbrella as insurance against attack. But when faced with the verified presence of atomic bombs on the other side of the border, South Korea may consider arming itself, Paik said.
    "It is not enough for South Korea to simply rely on the United States," he said. "They may not always be able to deter an attack or protect us."

    Specter of Asian arms race looms in shadow of North Korean nuclear program (HANS GREIMEL; Associated Press Writer)

    The North's state-run Central Radio said the world was watching the Pyongyang-Washington standoff "with sweating hands," and vowed that the Stalinist state would maintain its "mighty army-first policy."
    "The victory in the nuclear conflict is ours, and the red flag of the army-first policy will flutter ever more vigorously," said the broadcast, monitored by South Korea's Yonhap news agency.
    Washington and its allies are pressuring North Korea to abandon its suspected nuclear weapon programs. The North has insisted on direct talks first with the United States, from which it wants a nonaggression treaty.
    The bluster from the North came as South Korea's outgoing president warned that Pyongyang's production of atomic weapons could force his country and Japan to built nuclear bombs as well.
    "If North Korea has nuclear weapons, South Korea could possess such weapons ... and Japan could arm with nuclear weapons. This is what a lot of people worry about. This cannot be tolerated," Kim Dae-jung told tourism officials.

    North Korea says 'victory is ours' in nuclear dispute as Southerner warns of arms race (JAE-SUK YOO, Associated Press Writer)
    B♭3

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    • #32
      according to the cia factbook, japan spends 1% of its GDP on the military. south korea, 2.8%.
      i'm more than certain both nations can safely afford up to 5%, if need be, although that would be an extremely large number. i do realize i am revising my earlier guesstimate.
      B♭3

      Comment


      • #33
        Originally posted by Arrian


        I have no doubt that US conventional forces could defeat NKs, handily, but I doubt it could be done before NKs artillery pounded the everliving crapola out of Seoul. That isn't acceptable.

        -Arrian
        Try about 20 B-2s with those 15,000 lbs on each. We would have fire works for about 24 hours as each artillery piece cook off the next one. Plus those some 200,000 troops on the border would just disappear. The US Military would start this one with shock and awe.

        Comment


        • #34
          I think everyone is missing the big issue here, which is, after the end of the Cold War, do we really give a rip about South Korea any more? Why?
          As I see it, especially if the SK's don't want us there any more, who cares? Its a grim, ugly, wasteland of a country, with no strategic value or resources.
          I'd rather have a German division in front of me than a French division behind me.--Patton

          Comment


          • #35
            Originally posted by Joseph
            Try about 20 B-2s with those 15,000 lbs on each. We would have fire works for about 24 hours as each artillery piece cook off the next one. Plus those some 200,000 troops on the border would just disappear. The US Military would start this one with shock and awe.
            Which would not be as effective as they were when bombing people in open desert, as opposed to mountains. And how exactly would 200,000 troops just on the front disappear? Do we have some Magic someone did not tell us about?
            You do realise that B-2's take over 15 hour or so to fly form thier bases in Missouri to korea? and that they would not be used in caprte bombing, and that precision bombing of front line troops with these bombers is a waste of resources, using the wrong type of plane for the mission?

            "Military annalysis" of this sort is just so funny!
            If you don't like reality, change it! me
            "Oh no! I am bested!" Drake
            "it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong" Voltaire
            "Patriotism is a pernecious, psychopathic form of idiocy" George Bernard Shaw

            Comment


            • #36
              Originally posted by GePap


              Which would not be as effective as they were when bombing people in open desert, as opposed to mountains. And how exactly would 200,000 troops just on the front disappear? Do we have some Magic someone did not tell us about?
              You do realise that B-2's take over 15 hour or so to fly form thier bases in Missouri to korea? and that they would not be used in caprte bombing, and that precision bombing of front line troops with these bombers is a waste of resources, using the wrong type of plane for the mission?

              "Military annalysis" of this sort is just so funny!
              Well if you have been watching the News, the B-2s are already there. Guam. Guess how long it takes to fly to Korea from there.

              Comment


              • #37
                From guam? what, 8 hours?

                Ahem..B-2's are not for attacking troops on the field. That would be done by B-52's, but a handful of B-52's would no more take out 200,000 men in mountanous North korea than they did in open desert Iraq, nor the jungles of Vietnam.

                To put it simply: war with North korea would be very, very ugly. Iraq was always the easy and weak member of the "axis of evil"
                If you don't like reality, change it! me
                "Oh no! I am bested!" Drake
                "it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong" Voltaire
                "Patriotism is a pernecious, psychopathic form of idiocy" George Bernard Shaw

                Comment


                • #38
                  Quite true, all the more reason to let them go their own way.
                  I'd rather have a German division in front of me than a French division behind me.--Patton

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Originally posted by yavoon
                    its not like the US/USSR cold war. japan would only posess limited MAD ability. how would china building more things counter that MAD ability? it wouldn't. there is no logistical counter. so ne buildup that china/ north korea would do would be independant in goal from whether or not japan has nukes.
                    You forget both China and Russia have the capability to launch nuclear strikes against these facilities. Before the Japaneses can set them up, the nuclear warheads would already be airborne.
                    (\__/) 07/07/1937 - Never forget
                    (='.'=) "Claims demand evidence; extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence." -- Carl Sagan
                    (")_(") "Starting the fire from within."

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Originally posted by Q Cubed
                      according to the cia factbook, japan spends 1% of its GDP on the military. south korea, 2.8%.
                      i'm more than certain both nations can safely afford up to 5%, if need be, although that would be an extremely large number. i do realize i am revising my earlier guesstimate.
                      Japan cannot, due to the Peace Time Constitution.
                      (\__/) 07/07/1937 - Never forget
                      (='.'=) "Claims demand evidence; extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence." -- Carl Sagan
                      (")_(") "Starting the fire from within."

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        I think everyone is missing the big issue here, which is, after the end of the Cold War, do we really give a rip about South Korea any more? Why?

                        Its a grim, ugly, wasteland of a country, with no strategic value or resources.

                        its strategic value lies in that it is a mainland ally close to china.
                        resources? none, except for a large and growing economy, poised to be the first asian economy to jump from industrial to service-driven.
                        grim, ugly, wasteland? sounds rather harsh, but that might be in the eyes of the beholder. although i'd like to know what parts you were looking at...

                        As I see it, especially if the SK's don't want us there any more, who cares?

                        and this part... i'm tired of seeing this sort of tripe. naturally, it's bigger news to report that the skoreans DON'T want us amis there... but what's left unsaid is that both a sizeable portion of the korean populace and the government itself DOES want the us there.
                        roh got elected into office fanning the flames of anti-american sentiment; he did so also on the younger electoral group, the portion that does not remember the korean war. his victory was by a razor-thin margin, as well.
                        his opponent would have sought to have a harsher line with nkorea, and chose not to follow the anti-american craze among the young in the country--and in the end, it cost him that sector of the electorate.
                        even the young actually want the us in korea, for now--most of them are rather more occupied with rebalancing the alliance, which they see as condescending towards korea. they do NOT, however, want to kick the americans out. oy.

                        Japan cannot, due to the Peace Time Constitution.

                        very true. although i was predicating such an increase on the notion that japan, already seeking to ease the restrictions placed on it by macarthur and the american occupation, would try to amend its constitution.

                        Ahem..B-2's are not for attacking troops on the field. That would be done by B-52's, but a handful of B-52's would no more take out 200,000 men in mountanous North korea than they did in open desert Iraq, nor the jungles of Vietnam.

                        very true. no amount of "shock and awe" would stop seoul from being decimated and the ground war in korea from being a meatgrinder.

                        it's amazing the assumptions people can come up with.
                        it would also be very prudent not to get too cocky. yes, iraq fell apart quickly. but to assume that the same thing would happen in north korea is a logical fallacy.
                        =====
                        iraq / nkorea
                        flat, desert / mountainous, forested
                        largely unfortified / insanely fortified
                        most military target locations known / many military targets unaccounted for
                        army isn't in the top 10 for size / army is fourth in size
                        troops aren't loyal to saddam / troops are insanely loyal to kim
                        Last edited by Q Classic; April 12, 2003, 04:48.
                        B♭3

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Originally posted by Q Cubed
                          his opponent would have sought to have a harsher line with nkorea,
                          How harsh was he planning on being? Was he going to have the gall to demand reciprocity for the aid South Korea gives it or something equally horrible?
                          I make no bones about my moral support for [terrorist] organizations. - chegitz guevara
                          For those who aspire to live in a high cost, high tax, big government place, our nation and the world offers plenty of options. Vermont, Canada and Venezuela all offer you the opportunity to live in the socialist, big government paradise you long for. –Senator Rubio

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                          • #43
                            How harsh was he planning on being? Was he going to have the gall to demand reciprocity for the aid South Korea gives it or something equally horrible?

                            please, no sarcasm.
                            the harsher line in this case, as far as i understood it, was that he would refuse to continue the sunshine policy and ask for far more accountability with such things as the nuclear materials.
                            i do have to admit, however, i didn't pay as much attention to the election as i could have--but this happens when you don't live there.
                            B♭3

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              Q-Cubed knows his stuff.
                              http://monkspider.blogspot.com/

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Originally posted by Q Cubed
                                very true. although i was predicating such an increase on the notion that japan, already seeking to ease the restrictions placed on it by macarthur and the american occupation, would try to amend its constitution.
                                The LDP might be trying to do this, but the rest of the region is watching, watching like a hawk. So they can't just blantantly move to amend the constitution, as even attempts to do so will be viewed as renewed aggression ambitions.
                                (\__/) 07/07/1937 - Never forget
                                (='.'=) "Claims demand evidence; extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence." -- Carl Sagan
                                (")_(") "Starting the fire from within."

                                Comment

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