Is Bahdad really the key?

[KrazyHorse]

Without Baghdad he has nothing.

Abandoning the city instantly loses him the the war.

He's not a guerilla leader, nor do I think he has the capability to transform himself into one.

[Pekka]

Hmm, you made me realize one thing I didn't before.. Baghdad is very important TO Saddams glory and position. If he wasn't such a dictator, it wouldn't be SO big issue. Also I agree that he is NOT guerilla leader, or can transfrom himself into one.

[Pekka]

If it was more like our countries, it would still be capital, but the fight would be far from over. It would be still effective even without capital. But in case of Saddam it is not true. He might lose his popularity fast if he loses Baghdad, or should I say when he loses it. The people are not so faithfull to their leader than let's say maybe our countries would. They basically fear him. Sure there are many who do love him, but basically he is in power because they are afraid of him.

[Pekka]

So basically I could agree with you, that Baghdad is way too important, but unfortunately for him impossible to hold. He made too big of mistakes before the war, and that is being dictator. Otherwise he could effectively execute series of strategies, see what works and build on that.

But let's say for the sake of the thread, let's think about those strategies anyway in Iraqs point of view, what they could do, if the loosing of face of Saddam would not carry such a big weight?

[Pekka]

No one wants to contribute?

I'm not very good strategist myself, but I could have some tricks and tips that would work.. but not in terrain like Iraq. Too much desert where they can't capitalize. Also they lack of some essential weapon systems that are necessary for smaller and weaker armies to give beatings to bigger...

.. but still it makes me think, this can't be it. Saddam can't be that stupid. He KNOWS this way he will lose for sure. And when that is the case, he would do anything to avoid war. But there is the possibility of Saddam being screwed in the head to actually believe he has a chance with this strategy. So, Saddam is smarter than that, and that is why he must have winning strategy, and he has not revealed it yet. Or is he just this stupid?
Is he actually relying on that other arab countries will help him, if he just keeps doing this war like he's doing?

[spiritof1202]

A few points

1) Saddam doesn't trust the regular republican guard to enter the environs of Baghdad- To avoid a coup. Only the Special Republican Guard and a variety of irregulars including a number of Fedayeen are situated in Baghdad right now.

2) The remnants of the Republican Guard don't have many choices except for surrender or death. They can't maneuver and they don't have the firepower to decisively fight their way out of anywhere.

3) Every mechanism of control comes to Baghdad. "All roads lead to Rome" is the quote that comes to mind

4) The coalition has very tight control of vehicular movement. If it moves above ground it can be seen. Moving in the open would be the biggest risk that Saddam could take. There are tunnels, but apparently, the special forces have already discovered the tunnel network.

5) The only real war that Iraq could fight is a war for world opinion. Irregular tactics, such as suicide bombing are strategically insignificant.

6) The Coalition has real-time information resources like unmanned Predators that the Iraqi's just don't.


Relying on a delaying defense is risky and ultimately doomed to failure for Saddam. They cannot resupply, or reinforce. Its just a question of time. How long and how many civilian casualties is the big remaining question. Will Saddam self-destruct... using chemical questions is an interesting question too.

[spiritof1202]

As to whether other Arab countries will actively get involved in a fight.... no. They understand that it would be suicide. Attacking means maneuver warfare and that means that US airpower could be brought to bear in ways that they couldn't withstand. Their armies would be decimated, and the regimes of those countries would then be vulnerable.

[Frogman]

Baghdad is the key. I never realized how desolate so much of that country is and there ain't a whole lot outside the cities. Saddam's own misinformation campaign will do him in. We take the city and people will know they have been lied to and they will no longer fear him.

That said, we still have to find the SOB and make sure he doesn't turn up again.

[Pekka]

Well, that kind of limits the options. If those are in fact true, then there have been HORRIBLE mistakes at preparing.

Small can beat big. There are few key points what it has to do. They are not a big secret, but very important.

First of all, they need to break the enemies spirit as much as possible. That means sabotage, countless harrasing, making them slow down everywhere they go, exhaust them, give brutal lessons when they make mistakes, be nasty, have high moral yourself and make it seen that they have to kill every man if they want to win. Have a field day on back support lines all the time, make sure combat troopers don't get food, medicine, or sleep. Break the spirit!

Control the fights. Don't fight the big ones fight (which Iraq is doing, they desperately need to break the rule of this), fight your own fight, make the enemy to fight your fight. If you want to slow down, make the enemy want that too. You must decide what the pressure points are, out maneuver the enemy to make this possible. Choose where you want to fight big fights, and make enemies attempt of doing this obsolete.

You can't outpower the big one in firepower. So maneuvering is essential. It's not supposed to be fair fight anyway, so use every trick in the book to get the position to 'shoot the enemy in the back'. Make the enemies intelligence pick up wrong information, feed them with it. Infiltrate the enemy. Get right information, you must have good intelligence all the time or you can't play the game and outsmart the enemy.

And as a rule in combat, it's more effective to wound the enemy badly, than kill. Make them scream in pain, disable soldiers so others have to carry them back or try to help them, then shoot them too.
Don't shoot the point man, shoot the third guy for example. No one wants to be point man, but if no one wants to be third man either.. break the spirit!

Leave them with horrible images of their buddies suffering. 'I saw my friend die in my arms' is not so good as 'I had my friend scream in my arms for two hours before he was finally rescued, disabled for the rest of his life and with screwed up head'. They go back home, and tell what it was like, and not have funeral where they can't tell how bad it was. Spread lots of rumours. Break the spirit!

Make sure, that every time they think 'this was too easy?', they are right and what they feared for is about to come true.
Try to disable the advantage of high technology, if you are outpowered in it. Don't pick up the bodies of killed enemies, let them find it. Or you can just pick them up and pile them so that when they attack, they have to climb over them. They really want to get their buddies away from there, being piled up, so make sure they suffer even more when they try it. Make sure you're not getting overpowered.

Mah, I don't want to make this post longer, but small countries CAN give beatings to big countries. Just make sure the ones fighting REALLY don't want to be there, and that they give up their honor to serve their country because it is just so horrible they don't give a crap anymore.

[Pekka]

But as things are like they are, Saddam is not able to accomplish even one of these things.

[MrFun]

Just go straight for the bannanas.

[Sarxis]

Originally posted by Pekka
But as things are like they are, Saddam is not able to accomplish even one of these things.

Yes, this is the case so far. The Iraqis probably planned to fight this way, but were overwhelmed too quickly.

[rah]

The citizens of Baghdad are the key. How they react or don't react will the most important aspect.

I loved watching their Information Minister claiming that the Allied forces weren't even within 100 miles of the cities. Then citizens were asked to take up arms and go defend the airport. (there were no takers )

[Tolls]

He's on the telly again...I can't understand what he's saying, but I think Iraq has won the war several times over.