Iran and Syria in secret conference

[Urban Ranger]

Oh yes, the Domino Effect.

[The Viceroy]

The argument that Democracy can't survive in Iraq because of ethnic divisions has not played out in India . Its people (rural) are just as uneducated, village is regularly pitted against village, and yet still, they have a reasonably stable democracy. The price India pays is corruption ..

I believe that Iraq can become democratic, but it will be a fairly corrupt one, stuck with rivalries, and uneducated people getting elected (as in India) who cause trouble.

India has been a democracy for 50 years now, and long may it continue .. Iraq will join it if the western powers support its efforts, and don't abandon it to interference from other ME nations .. then the democracy will collapse.

[TheStinger]

Democracy was imposed on Japan and Germany and seemed to have some success

[Lancer]

UR, democracy is "government caring for the people...etc"?
BS. Democracy is the government staying out of the way of the people.

[Sloth]

Originally posted by Lancer
UR, democracy is "government caring for the people...etc"?
BS. Democracy is the government staying out of the way of the people.

A most peculiar definition...

[Ned]

Originally posted by DuncanK
Because of all the ethnic conflict. Picture the US before the Civil Rights Movement except the minorities are more violent.

Sounds like that very undemocratic South Africa.

[Ned]

Originally posted by Urban Ranger
Democracy isn't simply people getting the right to vote. Democracy is the government caring for the people, doing things for them. Voting is simply a tool designed to get the government to listen to the people. If, voting notwithstanding, the government fails to listen, it's not really democracy.

This is a joke, isn't it?

[Ned]

Originally posted by TheStinger
Democracy was imposed on Japan and Germany and seemed to have some success

Stinger, they were democratic to begin with. The government of Japan was elected. Hitler was "elected."

What we got rid of in Japan was a military that was largely independent of the elected government. In Germany, we got rid of the Third Reich.

I don't know if Iraq ever had a government elected by the whole people.

[TheStinger]

Hitler contested an election and formed a government, how he became leader was certianly dodgy enough to doubt its democratic credentials

[ahenobarb]

Originally posted by Ned


Stinger, they were democratic to begin with. The government of Japan was elected. Hitler was "elected."

What we got rid of in Japan was a military that was largely independent of the elected government. In Germany, we got rid of the Third Reich.

I don't know if Iraq ever had a government elected by the whole people.

If your looking for democratic forms (if not substance) as a precursor to a real democracy, Saddam got 100% right?

Not that anyone believes that was a real or fair election, but Iraqis do have experience showing up at the polls. Also after the war when there is a real fair election, you can expect 90+% turnout. They will want a say in how their country is run and who runs it.

[GePap]

Viceroy: India is a democracy, but has had many issues in its tome: for example, the whole indira Ghandi and son times. Ethnic strife continues, such as the anti-Sikh riots after Indira's assasination, the siege at the golden temple, and since Hindu fundamentalists hav been gaining more power, hindu-muslim clashes. And all of this in a state that has had 50 years fo dmeocracy (of a sort), plus two seperatist moveemnts , on in Kashmir, and the one that has killed more people, in the Northeast areas like Assam.

Ned is correct to say that germany and Japan had deeper democratic roots than Iraq does, plus these states lacked hte religious and ethnic divides Iraq does, and were much richer societies well into the industrialized era.

[Az]

Actually, Iraq is "well into the industrialized era" as well. Many people there have skills, as engineers and technological proffesionals, unlike many arab countries, where their educated classes are mainly doctors and other unproductive stuff.

Seriously though, If the government would be de-centralized enough in terms of culture, but will have a strong glue to hold it together, I think they have a very good chance at making it happen. This does depend a lot on the actions of the US government. This is my major worry with this war, that the US government wouldn't do the right things. That's what's keeping me rather "on the fence".

[Sirotnikov]

either iraq or iran will be the next real democracies in the region, in my opinion

[Ramo]

Iraqi democracy would mean that the US would have many, many, many more headaches to deal with. It's not going to hapen. Iranian democracy is a real possibility, although Gulf War II might give their gov't the pretense it needs to crush the reform movement.

Ethnic strife continues, such as the anti-Sikh riots after Indira's assasination, the siege at the golden temple, and since Hindu fundamentalists hav been gaining more power, hindu-muslim clashes.

Yep, like the recent massacres of Moslems in Gujurat. It will be very, very bad if the Hindu ultra-nationalists gain any more power...

[DuncanK]

Are the Shi'ites the majority? Even if they are the most numerous they still don't have 50% of the total, right? Democracy would seem very dangerous to me. I'm picturing Yugoslavia, and I don't know that much about Yogoslavia, only that after the USSR broke up they had a lot of problems with the ethnic groups.