The U.S. is heading towards a major depression

[Sten Sture]

Originally posted by Tripledoc
To sten sture

That is the worst kind of neo-liberal voodoo economics I have ever heard in my life.

From the persuasive insight highlighted in the rest of your thought provoking posts, I don't doubt that you are telling the truth.

[Velociryx]

I think your analysis of economies is a bit lopsided.

Yes...what you're saying is true IF all possible markets for existing technologies and industries have been fully tapped.

But we both know that's not how it works.

In the third world, there are new, emerging markets for stuff that we still make, but for which demand is dropping off here.

As people grow old and die, they are replaced by new people, and the new people don't just magically get the stuff they need (even if it's staple stuff)....nope....they gotta go buy it (cars, houses, refrigerators, etc). In this manner, even mature industries keep their steam, and so long as there are developing and/or untapped markets to sell the stuff made by mature industries, there is no danger of collapse.

And of course, while all this is happening, there are also entirely new innovations, leading to entirely new industries being born every day.

I think your fears regarding the impending doom of capitalism are misplaced.

It's not gonna go anywhere for the foreseeable future, and that horizon extends a good bit beyond fifty years.

Could something catastrophic happen to prove me wrong?

Absolutely....but at that point, the extinction of capitalism would be the least of our collective worries.....

-=Vel=-

[DanS]

This year looks like a good one for the US. Europe (especially Germany) and Japan are another matter entirely.

Don't listen to talk radio. It's corrossive to your mind!

[SlowwHand]

I know a lot of people are already majorly depressed about jobs.

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by Tripledoc
To chegitz guevara.

Doom and gloom.
Extinction? No.

You deny that the human race will someday go extinct? That's silly, every species goes extinct. It's not likely to happen today or anytime in the near to mid-term future, but eventually homo sapiens sapiens will be no more. But probably not today.

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by DanS
This year looks like a good one for the US.

They said that last year.

[KrazyHorse]

Why is everybody moaning about the economy? Things are flying up here...

[DanS]

They said that last year.

As Super Sten said, the economy grew at a healthy clip last year. For those with jobs, wage gains were high.

I know it's cold comfort to you, but it always takes a while for job growth to kick in, which will make unemployment go down.

[chequita guevara]

2.4% isn't that great, and the last quarter so a massive drop from 4% to .7%.

[DanS]

Count your blessings. It's a respectable number, and could be revised substantially upward. One of the highest rates of growth in the Western world.

[DuncanK]

Originally posted by Velociryx
As people grow old and die, they are replaced by new people, and the new people don't just magically get the stuff they need (even if it's staple stuff)....nope....they gotta go buy it (cars, houses, refrigerators, etc). In this manner, even mature industries keep their steam, and so long as there are developing and/or untapped markets to sell the stuff made by mature industries, there is no danger of collapse.

And of course, while all this is happening, there are also entirely new innovations, leading to entirely new industries being born every day.

-=Vel=-

It doesn't take many workers to produce the neccessary goods for the next generation. The thing that keeps people employed in capitalism is dynamics. Capitalism is very unstable and it has to constantly be driving forward at a good pace. When it's not driving forward in such a way its uglyness starts to become very appearant, because the masses start to suffer.

[Velociryx]

Again, you cannot examine either one side or the other though....true, as new and better technology becomes available, it doesn't take as many people in the factory to crank out the next generation's cars.

The people who used to work in those factories, however, now go to work building the robots that replaced them on the factory floor.

Or in servicing the robots.

Or programming and improving them.

Or any number of new (evolutionary or revolutionary) industries.

To zero in on one small piece of the puzzle and conclude that the whole is verging on collapse is to ignore the larger picture.

In that larger picture, we find a vast, untapped pool of consumers (the undeveloped world), who only need our help to modernize (and as they modernize, they'll need to buy goods from those who are already there), and AFTER they modernize, they'll begin to desire "exotic" goods and services.

Capitalism therefore, is not ONLY extended by revolutionary technology, but by tapping wholly untapped markets. If either is happening, capitalism continues. If BOTH are happening, capitalism grows like Kudzu.

Both will be happening for quite some time to come.

-=Vel=-

[DuncanK]

Vel,

You are assuming that globalization will be a permanent aspect of capitalism. You are also assuming that every nation will industrialize and develope like the US has. To the first assumption I would say that its an objective fact that its not so. If every nation were to reach the income levels of the current industrialized nations it could only happen once. To the second assumption, if they are to industrialize why haven't they so far. True China may continue to industrialize and depend on imports and foreign investment. Or there could be a global depression this year and their economy would tank along with the other trading nations of the world.

[Velociryx]

With regards to industrialization.....it's not their *fault* that they have not...it is ours.

The industrialized world has the responsibility (and in fact, the NEED) to help non-industrialized nations get there. It's the very best method of opening up new markets that we have.

As to industrialization in general....the pattern need not be indentical, however it is certainly true that in general, the patterns tend to be similar.

-=Vel=-

[DuncanK]

Originally posted by Velociryx
With regards to industrialization.....it's not their *fault* that they have not...it is ours.
-=Vel=-

I won't argue with you about that, but I will add something that you may or may not agree with.

The nature of capitalism is competition. By the admission of the neo-classical economists, capitalism works best when agents behave in their own self-interest.

We could easily produce enough goods and services in the industrialized nations to satisfy the entire world. If they were to industrialize it would just add to the fundamental problem with capitalism. Indeed, that problem is competition itself. Nations industrialize to import to the US. As more and more nations industrialize they all face stiffer competition resulting in market glut.

The industrialization of a nation adds needed dynamics to capitalism, but even if they were all to industrialize, capitalism could not be saved by those events.

edit: I should say that we have the ability to supply the world. However, we may have to be satisfied with a McDonalds on every other block instead of a McDonalds AND a Burger King on every block.