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**CerberusIV** · February 3, 2003, 05:47

There is a long history of US Presidents pushing foreign policy issues, often with military action, to divert attention from domestic economic problems. It doesn't necessarily mean a depression but it certainly doesn't look good.

If you have investment plans that are putting money into stocks for the long term (to pay off a property mortgage or for a pension) they should be OK as cheaper shares now should mean more payback in 20 years time (or it will all be so bad it won't matter). Short term investments are more risky.

I voted banana because I don't believe anyone knows for sure.

**Tripledoc** · February 3, 2003, 06:08

Re: The U.S. is heading towards a major depression

Originally posted by Dissident
Anyways I've heard gold is a good thing to invest in a war or depression. And the price has been going up lately. I have been thinking about investing in gold.

but some advice that has been put out there is to consolidate and eliminate your debts. If you aren't in debt a depression will not be very hard to make it through. And invest in gold.

Again these aren't my views. But those of some radio talk show host.

Gold is a a good investment on paper because it is a finite resource, but bear in mind that the gold value can be artificially kept low by manipulating schemes - so don't be fooled again. The aim in this is to keep the dollar (not finite) value high - which according to many economists is overvalued.

Actually a low dollar might be good for US exports - and it is the lack of exports which is really hurting the US economy. But a low dollar will also mean substantial losses for those involved in high finance.

If you are not the patriotic type you might also consider investing in Euros.

**Sarxis** · February 3, 2003, 09:21

I'm already farily depressed in America. This country is great and all- still has a high standard of living even for its poor, but the 'American Dream' is a bulls*** story the upper echelon feeds the lower classes to keep them content. I mean, someones' got to flip the burgers. But burger-flipping or any like job makes you a non-entity in this country.

**Spiffor** · February 3, 2003, 09:38

War (at least preparation of war) had a positive impact on the American growth : Bush's deficit spending to buy as many weapons as possible helped the weapon industry considerably, like the corollary industries, which resulted in a very positive effect in the short term : Q1 2002, there was a 5.2% growth IIRC.

The developed world is currently in a downing phase of its economy, and almost all rich countries have a slowed down growth. Maybe in the near future, they'll have a negative growth as well, including the US.
We are going to an average depression worldwide (including the US) and the lack of international coordination makes sure it'll happen. For once, we Euros are at fault, since we didn't follow the US when it used massive deficit spending to counteract the coming depression.

In short : no major depression, but an average depression.

**Solly** · February 3, 2003, 09:47

Yep, the West over the next twenty years will not do well as a result of our policies ignoring the effects of the demographic dividend.

**JohnT** · February 3, 2003, 09:51

Demographic dividend? New one on me... could you please explain?

**Spiffor** · February 3, 2003, 09:53

Oh, and don't believe wall street experts when they say to put your life savings in the stock market. The system is extremely fragile, and will collapse if there is a significant external shock (like the oil shock Gulf War II could bring).
The system dearly needs more money from people and private investors to hold on : don't be fooled, when they invite you in the Stock-casino, they do so out of their interest, not yours.
Gold isn't great, as the general trend is to lowering the value (I speak on a decade-y trend). I'd rather suggest you to put your life savings in a reasonable Bank, which is a much safer place than the stock market. At least until we precisely know if we're on the verge of crisis or not.

**Velociryx** · February 3, 2003, 09:55

Disagree.

True, with the threat of war looming, the short term economic fallout might not be so pleasant, but the fact is that there are a lot of emerging nations in the early stages of industrialization/modernization (and I would include China in that category).

When we were in their shoes, we bootstrapped our way up by buying what we needed from the (then Industrial Giant) Great Britain.

The nations that are doing what we did 200 years ago need to buy what they need to get started from those who are already industrialized....the west.

Long term, we've got no shortage of customers.

-=Vel=-

**Lancer** · February 3, 2003, 09:58

Ta right. We're all doomed because we didn't elect Gore.

**JohnT** · February 3, 2003, 10:06

Originally posted by Spiffor
Oh, and don't believe wall street experts when they say to put your life savings in the stock market. The system is extremely fragile, and will collapse if there is a significant external shock (like the oil shock Gulf War II could bring).
The system dearly needs more money from people and private investors to hold on : don't be fooled, when they invite you in the Stock-casino, they do so out of their interest, not yours.
Gold isn't great, as the general trend is to lowering the value (I speak on a decade-y trend). I'd rather suggest you to put your life savings in a reasonable Bank, which is a much safer place than the stock market. At least until we precisely know if we're on the verge of crisis or not.

I don't even know where to begin. So I won't. I can't.

But, I just have to ask... No! Must... resist... temptation!

Fah. I've got too much to do today without getting involved in a discussion like this.

**Tripledoc** · February 3, 2003, 10:10

Originally posted by Spiffor

In short : no major depression, but an average depression.

But a major depression is better if it is short, while an average 'Japan style' depression might go on for several decades.

I fail to see how deficit spending can save the day since quite frankly there is nothing really to spend money on, unless there is some revolution in renewable energy.

**CerberusIV** · February 3, 2003, 10:14

Originally posted by Velociryx

When we were in their shoes, we bootstrapped our way up by buying what we needed from the (then Industrial Giant) Great Britain.

The nations that are doing what we did 200 years ago need to buy what they need to get started from those who are already industrialized....the west.

-=Vel=-

Not quite, I'm afraid. 200 years ago Britain generally encouraged investment in the agricultural and mining development of its colonies, not their industrialisation.

Now China buys machinery once and then produces the goods it requires, and exports any surplus. Western money finances it, uses the profits to finance more investment overseas and little comes back to the average joe in the US or Europe.

A lot of Chinese corporations do most of their own R&D and are increasingly less reliant on the West for anything much.

**TheStinger** · February 3, 2003, 10:17

Britain industrialised 1st and then sold the next lot of countires the equipment for their industrialisation.

They sold anything to anyone. especialy the USA.

**Velociryx** · February 3, 2003, 10:22

Really?

It seems to me (granted, I did only a cursory search here) that there have been DROVES of factories building everything from Airframes to Chipsets built all over Asia.

I would imagine that the expertise to build such facilities did not....*could not* have come from the local (largely peasant farmer) population, but rather, would had to have come from an already industrialized nation.

You can't build a modern sky scraper without modern expertise.

Likewise, you *could* attempt to develop every single industry you would need, in a bid for self-sufficiency, but to my knowledge, this has succeeded noplace on earth....so yep....like it or not, developing countries will have to buy from more developed ones.

And, as they develop...as their populations gain more affluence, they'll begin demanding luxury items and exotic imports......

It's precisely the way new markets develop, and to say we're runnin' out of potential customers is to say that the whole world is industrialized.

Anybody *really* care to make that argument?

Yes	26.83%	11 votes
No	53.66%	22 votes
banana	19.51%	8 votes

Announcement

The U.S. is heading towards a major depression

The U.S. is heading towards a major depression

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