State Implosion -- A New Twist In North Korea

[ranskaldan]

Originally posted by DanS
I think what UR means is that "political freedom" without the necessary economic prosperity is no better than tyranny.

And I disagree. Tyrrany is much worse.

That is where I would disagree.

"Political freedom" without economic prosperity is simply a chaotic system of demagogues, extremist parties, riots, anarchy, and general mayhem. Such a system is ripe for Hitlers to take over.

Economic prosperity without "political freedom" is a mature, healthy democracy waiting to emerge.

[Velociryx]

Once more, I find that we are largely in agreement, Rans. I definitely don't believe that we need to USE our military force in Asia....but in order to keep the Chinese in check (this speaking not from personal preference, but from the perspective of American aims in the larger sense), then yep. We absolutely need a base on the mainland of Asia. Further, I believe we absolutely would spend the necessary bucks to ensure our position there, first by installing a pro-US government in NK, or by paving the way for reunification with SK, and then, by dropping whatever money was required to rebuild infrastructure in that nation.

-=Vel=-

[ranskaldan]

Originally posted by Velociryx
Once more, I find that we are largely in agreement, Rans.

With so much agreement, I wonder what this argument is about.

I definitely don't believe that we need to USE our military force in Asia....but in order to keep the Chinese in check (this speaking not from personal preference, but from the perspective of American aims in the larger sense), then yep. We absolutely need a base on the mainland of Asia.

Of course. A superpower would be insane not to maintain a base in a strategically important area.

Further, I believe we absolutely would spend the necessary bucks to ensure our position there, first by installing a pro-US government in NK, or by paving the way for reunification with SK, and then, by dropping whatever money was required to rebuild infrastructure in that nation.

Not necessarily in that order. I think the "rebuilding of infrastructure" comes first and foremost; reunification is only a dream until NK is sufficiently rebuilt.

[DanS]

reunification is only a dream until NK is sufficiently rebuilt.

Nope. We or our allies occupy and govern before the money is spent. That's the way it works.

[Velociryx]

That last bit....I'm not sure if it's gonna be up to us.

At this stage in the game, I think it'll get worse before it gets better.

If the country implodes, there may be no choice but to do it the other way (unify first, fix later), cos at that point, we're talking about millions starving as the mechanism of government freezes up and grinds to a halt.

Again, in a perfect world, it'd most surely be better for all involved to build infrastructure first, so there's not such a shock to SK's infrastructure, nor a "culture shock" of suddenly introducing millions of "have nots" into a first world nation.

But I do not believe we have sufficient control of events or the situation to guarantee we can make it work out that way.

-=Vel=-

[Velociryx]

Just saw Dan's post, and I have to agree.

We're not gonna just hand Kim a wad of cash and tell him to go build infrastructure so we can merge his country down the line. Can't happen.

I fear for the poor folks living in NK, too, cos they're at ground zero for a whole lot of misery....

-=Vel=-

[Alinestra Covelia]

There's a fine line between saying "we're going to do this genuinely to make your lives better" and "oh heck, let's just fire a few tactical missiles in there - problem solved".

There's been a lot of the latter type of views that American military might alone will solve a problem. These do probably the most damage to American credibility.

As always, you need to be able to follow the job through, whether it means negotiating with allies (and enemies) to get the best deal for the afflicted peoples, or shouldering the responsibility yourself.

America's previous examples of supporting or installing pro-US figurehead leaders without thought to their suitability for the country (South Vietnam, South Korea's Singman Rhee, and Chiang KaiShek spring to mind) has caused much residual unease when America talks of regime change.

Fortunately, Afghanistan is standing up to be a pretty good example. Hamid Karzai's job is very difficult but it genuinely seems to be improving standards since the Taliban's fall.

If America can prove to support more such leaders to the good of the governed, and less of those who are just politically pro-American, then they'll have less resistance and more cooperation in making the world a safer place.

[DanS]

America's previous examples of supporting or installing pro-US figurehead leaders without thought to their suitability for the country (South Vietnam, South Korea's Singman Rhee, and Chiang KaiShek spring to mind) has caused much residual unease when America talks of regime change.

It seems to me that the democratically elected and sustained SK gov't is able to govern NK for a short time before democratic institutions can be installed in the North.

This could be a hands-off operation, at least internally to NK, as far as the US is concerned.

[ranskaldan]

The "perfect world" happens a lot more often that you would expect. China, SK, Japan, Russia all went through various degrees of this "perfect world".

Of course, if Kim dropped dead tomorrow and the entire machinery of NK came magically under SK control, everyone would be happy. But that is very unlikely to happen; the most likely scenario is change from within. That's why there is a Sunshine Policy and continuing efforts to open NK to the global market.

[DanS]

We're not gonna just hand Kim a wad of cash and tell him to go build infrastructure so we can merge his country down the line. Can't happen.

That's exactly what Ranskaldan is telling us we have no choice but to do. I don't buy it. If he wants his nukes, then I doubt we can do much about it. The administration appears resigned to this, although I hope they have an ace up their sleeves (probably not, though, we'll see).

But not a red cent of American money to him under those circumstances. No food. No energy. No trading. No normalization. No World Bank and IMF loans. Nothing. He's got his row to hoe, so he might as well get to it.

If the SK wants to shovel money into the pit, that's their business. But I doubt they'll have much company, considering the mood in Japan and Europe. The food program is already extremely underpledged for '03. The US is probably the only country that has the necessary amount of ready rice available to give.

[ranskaldan]

Originally posted by DanS
We're not gonna just hand Kim a wad of cash and tell him to go build infrastructure so we can merge his country down the line. Can't happen.

That's exactly what Ranskaldan is telling us we have no choice but to do. I don't buy it. If he wants his nukes, then I doubt we can do much about it. The administration appears resigned to this, although I hope they have an ace up their sleeves (probably not, though, we'll see).

No one is "handing Kim a wad of cash". If you want to do that as some sort of short-term buy-our-way-out-of-this-mess tactic, you can go ahead, but this is not what I'm advocating.

SK has been making progress in convincing NK to open itself up; and that's the approach that I'm talking about.

But not a red cent of American money to him under those circumstances. No food. No energy. No trading. No normalization. No World Bank and IMF loans. Nothing. He's got his row to hoe, so he might as well get to it.

Kim doesn't care, and in the meantime, this approach would only further isolate his country and starve his people. It maintains the current status quo but that's about all it does.

If the SK wants to shovel money into the pit, that's their business. But I doubt they'll have much company, considering the mood in Japan and Europe. The food program is already extremely underpledged for '03. The US is probably the only country that has the necessary amount of ready rice available to give.

China is a major participant in the dumping of rice into NK.

[DanS]

Perhaps so, but not under the auspices of the UN. I don't know the numbers precisely, but I think about 1/3 the populace is served [edit: was served] under the UN.

Kim doesn't care

I think he does care, even if strictly in a self-serving way. And he'll also come to learn that maintaining even a small number of nukes is an extremely expensive endeavor. It's a big economy weapon. Missile defense would make it even more expensive for him, because it would require of him a larger arsenal.

SK has been making progress in convincing NK to open itself up

Oh, that's what the $300 million cash payment to NK to inaugurate the Sunshine Policy was for? If only I needed such convincing...

[ranskaldan]

Originally posted by DanS
I think he does care, even if strictly in a self-serving way. And he'll also come to learn that maintaining even a small number of nukes is an extremely expensive endeavor. It's a big economy weapon. Missile defense would make it even more expensive for him, because it would require of him a larger arsenal.

He does care, but the condition of the North Korean state and its people do not factor into his equations.

Oh, that's what the $300 million cash payment to NK to inaugurate the Sunshine Policy was for? If only I needed such convincing...

Yes, of course.
And the rail and road links. And the industrial zone at Kaesong. And the opening up of certain NK sights to SK tourists, And the economic zone at Sinuiju (well the last one is Chinese but it's in the same general trend).

Hell, this is how China started its reforms.

[DanS]

The big and quick money is Uncle Sugar. He knows it. That's why he wants direct talks with the US. But now he's ~ $700 million or so per annum in the hole, relative to his previous position.

[Alinestra Covelia]

And economic reforms would take far shorter time in NK than they would in China, simply through smaller populace and lesser land area.

I reckon that SEZs on the line of Shenzhen and Macau could potentially save NK. Once Kim relinquishes power (possibly through natural old age) then a new elite would rise, which would be half military and half economic.

Given another generation, the economic elite would hold most of the rulership.

This is pretty much how China tried to modernize whilst keeping political reform to a manageable (some might say minimal) pace. NK could potentially do it much faster and absolutely than China too.