Standoff at Baghdad?

[Urban Ranger]

Should I remind you of the situation in Afghanistan? It's not a pretty one. That's why you don't see it on TV. The Taliban was a lot smaller, poorly armed, and sitting out in the mountains.

I would like to see the US carpet bomb Baghdad. Make my day.

[Jack the Bodiless]

"Surgical operations "

Hey, we can land those things in windows from the air. Ya there will be collarateral. But you know what, it wont warrant enough to stop the bombing. Unless, Saddam, say. Decides to use those human shields. Then its his own fault.

Which windows?

If ground troops can aim a laser designator at a window, then they can aim a rocket-launched grenade at it just as easily. But precision munitions are useless if you don't know where the enemy is: and, in urban warfare, you get to find out when your soldiers start dying.

And, yes, he will use the civilian population as human shields. He can avoid blame by pointing out that this is what happens when an invading army tries to massacre armed civilians defending their homes.

I hope the military has a contingency plan that isn't dependent on Saddam surrendering or being turned on by the Iraquis. But, other than using local opposition forces as cannon fodder (which I don't think they will agree to), I think the only alternative is to isolate Baghdad (but drop food in) and use somewhere else as an "acting capital" for the rest of Iraq.

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by Jack the Bodiless
I think the only alternative is to isolate Baghdad (but drop food in) and use somewhere else as an "acting capital" for the rest of Iraq.

That's going to be very expensive. You need tons of men, and there is still no escape from random snipings by Iraqi forces.

[Ramo]

What will happen at Baghdad?

I suspect there'll be a siege of Baghdad. Hopefully, we'll be sick of war eventuallly.

[Jack the Bodiless]

Maybe the US could then call on the other Arab nations, for an all-Arab army of occupation to go into Baghdad.

But would they cooperate? And would the Iraquis let them in?

[Urban Ranger]

I suppose if US troops find chemical and/or biological weapons in Iraq, they may. Otherwise, doubtful.

[Ramo]

I'd bet that if an Arab state actually does help the US prosecute this war, it'd have something damn close to a revolution on its hands.

[Drake Tungsten]

I'd bet that if an Arab state actually does help the US prosecute this war, it'd have something damn close to a revolution on its hands.

People said that before the last Gulf War and nothing came of it. It's certainly a possibility, but not a very likely one IMO.

[Kontiki]

Originally posted by faded glory
"at a recent conference there were 60 plus Iraqi opposition groups represented, most of whom hate each other only slightly less than they are against Saddam. That should make for some clear democratic decision making."

Ya. So? Your looking at the bigger picture and going nuts. Im saying, cross the bridges as you get to them. First concentrate on overthrowing Saddam. Then worry about post-war Iraq.

Wow. That right there is one of the most dangerous attitudes one can have and is a major reason that this war should be avoided. Do you honestly think that war should be fought with a "damn the consequences" mentality?

[Jack the Bodiless]

A recent rant by Saddam included the claim that his enemies will "commit suicide at the gates of Baghdad".

...Which implies that he's already preparing for this scenario. He didn't say "at the borders of Iraq", he's admitting that the rest of Iraq will fall.

[Ned]

Originally posted by orange


no it doesn't

what it proves is that, if attacked, Saddam will use his B+C weapons. We already know that. Hence the protest.

Exactly - but in the same breath the protesters said that Saddam has no B + C weapons.

[Arrian]

A recent rant by Saddam included the claim that his enemies will "commit suicide at the gates of Baghdad".

...Which implies that he's already preparing for this scenario. He didn't say "at the borders of Iraq", he's admitting that the rest of Iraq will fall.

Not that I'm succumbing to the overconfidence syndrome that seems to be going around, but this is the same guy who promised the world the "Mother of All Battles" back in Gulf War Round 1.

-Arrian

[SpencerH]

Theres a world of difference though Arrian. The desert had always been considered the best terrain for mobile armoured forces. The city is virtually the opposite.

So far I've heard of plans for 4 american divisions and 1 brit division. Thats not enough troops to take and hold Baghdad (pop 5M) if the local populace doesnt greet us with open arms and actively help the overthrow.

While I dont agree with all of it here's an interesting link

[lord of the mark]

Note - about a third of Baghdad is Shiite. Isolated groups of Pro-Saddam soldiers wont last long there. Which points to the Iraqi problem in defending baghdad - Urban opertions favor the defended in small groups , fighting guerilla style. But this both reduces Iraqi command and control over its troops (IE makes it easier for them to surrender) and exposes them to the wrath of the population - unless theyve evacuated the population, in which case US firepower can dominate (harder than in open ground, but still doable)

Lets look at it this way - reports indicate that Saddam does not allow regular troops OR Republican Guards into Bagdad. Only Special Republican Guards are relaible enough to be kept in the capital. How many of them are there, 40,000???
And they are apparently not all that well trained in urban warfare themselves, since they have been kept mainly for domestic control. A difficult problem, but far from insoluble.

[Jack the Bodiless]

He appears to be arming the citizenry, however.

Unusually for a dictator, he permits the sale of weapons to ordinary citizens.

Edit: Damn, can't find a link for that. Alleged quote from Dan Rather: "Iraqi civilians are buying guns in great numbers if they can afford it, not to fight Americans but to protect themselves in the coming anarchy after the war."

Irrespective of the stated reason: it means that reasonably affluent Iraquis can buy guns.