Standoff at Baghdad?

[Jack the Bodiless]

Assuming the war against Iraq goes ahead...

US and British forces romp all over the desert after bombing all visible Iraqi military installations from the air. They eventually reach Baghdad itself.

...Then what?

Their technological advantage is pretty much useless in street-by-street fighting. Bombing areas occupied by civilians is unacceptable nowadays. Sending ground troops into an urban combat zone will result in many, many body bags. Laying siege to the city is also unacceptable nowadays.

Sure, they'll try assassination. But assassins might not succeed. I expect they'll arbitrarily decree that "the city of Baghdad contains no Weapons of Mass Destruction, therefore we have completed our mission".

...And then go home? With Saddam still technically in power? Unlikely.

Isolate Baghdad and set up an alternative capital to govern the country? Use local troops to take Baghdad as the Northern Alliance took Kabul? Do the Kurds have the numbers and the will to do this, and will they get a fully-independent Kurdistan as a reward?

What will happen at Baghdad?

[Alexander's Horse]

Could be like the Suez crisis - everyone standing around looking ridiculous. US forced to withdraw out of sheer embarrassment.

[lightblue]

The Iraqi army will roll over and die. Surgical operations to take out command and control centres with the generals/colonels that have too much to lose, and the common soldier will just give up facing the far better equipped US army.

[Dinner]

I suspect that once Saddam is down to his last bunker the Iraqis will be tripping over themselves saying how they've always hated him and now would like to help get rid of him.

[CerberusIV]

Does the US military have any new toys intended for combat in urban areas it wants to try out?

[CerberusIV]

If the Iraqis use just ONE chemical warhead the entire US forces will be eating, sleeping and washing in NBC suits, not just trying to fight in them. That isn't going to do much for combat efficiency.

[Dinner]

Yes, those MOP suits suck. I could hardly stand wearing them for an hour much less day after day. On the up side if Saddam uses his chemical weapons, and when his back is to the wall he probably will, this will just prove the Brits and Americans have been right all along. That Saddam is a liar and a dirty cheat.

[The Viceroy]

I predict, the second US/UK troops enter across the Iraqi border, Sadam will magically disapear never to be seen again, along with several billion, some Deputy will take over and welcome the troops into Baghdad, and it will all be over in a few days . The real battle will then begin .. weeding out extremists, picking up the peices Sadam left, and trying to convince the rest of the Arab world that Iraq will be ruled by the Iraqi people.

[Jack the Bodiless]

This seems to rely on the assumption that Saddam is too stupid to realize that the US would have big problems trying to take Baghdad.

Let's assume Saddam has thought this through.

Why should he run, if Baghdad can't be taken?

If Baghdad can be taken: how?

[Urban Ranger]

That's the funnest thing I have heard in a long time.

[Dinner]

I hate to say it but I almost hope Saddam does use his Chemical weapons once or twice since it will completely prove the case and make the anti-war protesters look like the stupid fools that they are.

[Dinner]

Originally posted by Jack the Bodiless
Why should he run, if Baghdad can't be taken?

If Baghdad can be taken: how?

Every city can be taken; it is just a matter of how much it will cost. If you end up in one of the warmer areas of the after life you can ask Hitler how his "Fortress Berlin" turned out for it was surely one of the most fortified cities in history.

Again there probably won't be a giant urban fight in Baghdad because you would need large numbers of soldiers who are willing to sacrific their lives just so a doomed Saddam can make a good show of it before he bows out. No, in the finest Iraqi tradition they will probably turn on him and act like the last man out is stuck with the check.

[Urban Ranger]

Wrongo. Chemical weapons is just an excuse. We see through it.

[Jack the Bodiless]

Originally posted by Urban Ranger


That's the funnest thing I have heard in a long time.

It's not entirely clear whose post you're referring to, UR...

To take Baghdad if Saddam doesn't run, the US will have to get over its post-Vietnam "bodybag phobia". I don't think it has, yet. Even after the extreme provocation of September 11th, the US military was extremely reluctant to go head-to-head with the Taliban until the NA had basically smashed them on the ground.

So it seems that the only real plan is "let's hope the Iraquis do it for us".

[MRT144]

oerdin id like to see saddam use chemical weapons too, if only to make our army look stupid in the NBC suits