The bankruptcy of Creationists' probability argument

[Ramo]

The odds of life developing on one planet in the universe, given no divine intervention is much greater than 1 in 24 trillon. Probably greater by a factor of ten.

I agree.

[Caligastia]

Creationists don't realise that God had a hand in evolution, and neither do evolutionists. Hey! Join the club!

[Capt Dizle]

Ramo agrees with me. Now I can pull the trigger and die fullfilled.

[Asher]

Originally posted by jimmytrick
Ramo agrees with me. Now I can pull the trigger and die fullfilled.

Not quite -- you made a silly goof in what he quoted.

[Caligastia]

He admits there's a chance! Come to Jesus Ramo!

[Boris Godunov]

Simple, really.

Est. # of galaxies in the universe: 125 billion

Now it is reasonable to assume in every galaxy there is at least one planet with conditions like earth. That is being very stingy, considering there are 100 billion potential solar systems in our galaxy alone.

So even with that conservative estimate, we know life developed on our planet out of those 125 billion earth-like ones. So the odds are at the most 1 in 125 billion, I'd say.

[monkspider]

UR, I'm afraid this is a strawman. I doubt there are many theists who subscribe to the belief that "low probability equates impossibility". Nothing personal of course, comrade.

[Ramo]

Simple, really.

Est. # of galaxies in the universe: 125 billion

Now it is reasonable to assume in every galaxy there is at least one planet with conditions like earth. That is being very stingy, considering there are 100 billion potential solar systems in our galaxy alone.

So even with that conservative estimate, we know life developed on our planet out of those 125 billion earth-like ones. So the odds are at the most 1 in 125 billion, I'd say.

That's not quite valid. You could only say that only if you assume life developed on Earth without divine intervention, which is what he's questioning.

[Berzerker]

There are different kinds of "creationists", one claims the earth is young and that macro-evolution doesn't occur. Another group recognises an old earth and doesn't deny macro-evolution, just that bio-genesis - life from non-life - has not been proven. And bio-genesis is quite difficult to prove, not that creation via some "god" is any easier to prove.

[Capt Dizle]

Boris, life in its simplest form is very complex.

Take the ingredients of a pepperoni pizza, in their natural state; throw them up in the air. How many times would you have to throw them up before a cooked pizza comes down? Incalculable. Ditto life.

But I am not a theist and I am not defending creationism.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Ramo


That's not quite valid. You could only say that only if you assume life developed on Earth without divine intervention, which is what he's questioning.

Well, I thought that was the point--the odds assuming there was no divine intervention.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by jimmytrick
Boris, life in its simplest form is very complex.

Take the ingredients of a pepperoni pizza, in their natural state; throw them up in the air. How many times would you have to throw them up before a cooked pizza comes down? Incalculable. Ditto life.

But I am not a theist and I am not defending creationism.

Not incalculable, I wager. And here:

http://www.talkorigins.org/origins/postmonth/jun98.html

"It's like rolling a die ten times and getting 3526525514 and saying "wow, the odds on that were 60 million to one, what a coincidence!!". (And note that rolling 6666666666 is no less likely; the probability of getting 3526525514 is exactly the same as the probability of getting 6666666666.) If you post facto single out some particular sequence as "special" (such as "6666666666" or "life arising") then of course that individual sequence is improbable, but that doesn't mean that the dice were rigged (i.e., there was an intelligent designer behind that sequence). It's exactly as probable or improbable as anything else.

Sure, non-life producing universes might be more probable than life-producing ones, but what does that prove? We only think that life-producing universes are special because we're in one. Each individual universe, life-producing or not, has the same intrinsic probability. The "intelligent design" argument is highly anthrocentric -- it only works if you assume that life-producing universes are special in some way that affects the production of those universes.

For example, suppose that you allow two compartments of randomly-distributed gas molecules to mix together, and then at some instant after a long period of time you take all the molecules in one corner and paint them blue to indicate that this configuration is "special". Then you claim that the initial configuration of the gas molecules must have been set in just such a way that all of the molecules which you later painted -- which surely were distributed almost at random in the beginning -- happen to end up, at that later instant, to all end up in one corner of the compartment. After all, if it had been set up any other way, if the initial distribution of gas molecules in the two compartments had been almost anything else, those particular molecules which you've painted blue would never have ended up in that corner all at once by that time. What are the odds of that happening, that those particular molecules all end up in that corner at that time? About a gazillion to one. That must mean that the initial configuration of molecules was intelligently designed so that those molecules would end up there at that time, right? Wrong. The initial configuration of molecules was random.

This is exactly analogous to what people claim when they suggest that "fine-tuning" must imply intelligent design. You after the fact designate some particular configuration of the system as "special", such as "those molecules in the corner" or "the existence of life on Earth", and say "Wow, things must have been set up in the beginning exactly so that this configuration will occur!". But it's really an artifact of our singling out one configuration as special. It's exacerbated if this configuration happens to give rise to self-aware life -- if all of those molecules in the corner happen to, through their interactions, give rise to some sort of sentient behavior, then they might suppose that the initial distribution of gas in the compartment was "fine-tuned" to make all of them end up in that corner at that particular time.

As a similar example, look at it this way: suppose hypothetically that the parameters of the universe were determined purely at random by some natural physical process (without intelligent design being involved), such as a quantum fluctuation or something. Further suppose that there are 10 such parameters, which can take on values between 1 and 6, with every permutation being equally likely. And finally suppose that the only configuration of parameters capable of giving rise to a universe with intelligent life is 3526525514, and that the universe happens to, by random, come up with that configuration. To us, those parameters are a meaningless and random sequence, no more and no less likely than any other. But to them, it's an extremely special, unique, and very improbably "fine-tuned" -- the odds are worse than 60 million to one! -- set of parameters. But it would be incorrect for them to conclude that their universe was intelligently designed, because in this hypothetical example, it wasn't! (And again, this does not require a "multiverse".) No matter what configuration actually occurs, you can always after the fact say that that configuration was "selected for" simply by virtue of it being so improbable and you being in it, when in fact it's no more improbable than any other!"

[Boris Godunov]

And the odds of ambiogenesis may very well be 1.0:

http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/abioprob/abioprob.html

[Ramo]

I'm sure the odds of abiogenesis occuring on Earth is very close to one, given the number of molecules and amount og time we're dealing with.

Well, I thought that was the point--the odds assuming there was no divine intervention.

Right. But you can't assume that abiogenesis occured without divine intervention on Earth if you're assessing these odds.

[Capt Dizle]

Personally, I expect there is life on other planets. I wouldn't be surprised if there are lifeforms in our solar system.

God knows.