GDP, M&A, EBITDA, P/E, NASDAQ, Econo-thread Part 12

[Ted Striker]

Originally posted by Sten Sture
I wonder if 90% of the States Utd private health care spending is for plastic surgery in metro LA??? Striker?

Probably the multiple penile reduction surgeries I had would account for the percentage.

[Sten Sture]

like just taping it to your ankle wasn't a decent solution...

Kids today, surgery for everything.

[TCO]

He couldn't fit it inside those tight Trojans. Of course we know how you solved that problem...

[Ted Striker]

[TCO]

Sorry honey, we'll just have to procreate.

[DanS]

"Also I assume the 100.000 $ something legal costs per doctor appear under legal services, for example..."

Over the holiday, I was stunned at finding out the premiums that these folks have to pay. I heard figures up to $140,00/year from high school friends who went into health care. I guess it depends on what specialty you're in. Those LA plastic surgeons are working on some high value faces.

[Ted Striker]

Ya, there have been several strikes this year where the doctors have walked off of the job because of liability insurance costs. In most cases, the states stepped in and put a cap on the damages someone could collect from a malpractice suit.

[Colonâ„¢]

Originally posted by DanS
BFD. Do we need to go through all of this comparative GDP pissing contest again?

Well, as long you keep insisting something exceptional is going on in the US economy, the likes of me and EF will keep bugging you with data to prove the opposite.

The whole point is that US Productivity gains averaged 1.5% from the '70s through '91. '92 forward we're averaging something north of that (or we aren't). This is indeed a productivity miracle (or it isn't), and contains a lot of what Sten detailed.

(be prepared for another rehash )

Firstly, the US doesn't exist in isolation, differences in productivity growth affect capital flows and currency movements. The US has been able to run a huge current account deficit for years because its economy and asset returns have been perceived to be superior.
The US relies on foreign capital to fund its investments which makes the economy very vulnerable to a crash of the greenback. When foreigners stop funding US' investments, households will have to start saving more and consuming less.

And secondly, there's nothing unique about such an acceleration, the US had a similar bout before 1973 and Japan had it end 80's.
More spectacular productivity performances didn't save other economies from their imbalances so I'm mystified why you are putting so much stock on an acceleration of what, like 0.5%?

And regarding housing, the problem is not just that prices are outpacing household incomes (I don't see why you should use a ratio with GDP) it's also that a lot consumption spending hinges on mortgage refinancing. A mortgage refinancing allows only a one-time increase in consumption and you'd need mortgage rates to keep on dropping to allow this pattern to repeat itself.
Even without falling real estate prices or higher interest rates, consumption spending would stall.

[TCO]

There was an Oped peice by one of the Fed board members today in the WSJ. It discussed productivity gains.

[Sten Sture]

Originally posted by Colon

A mortgage refinancing allows only a one-time increase in consumption and you'd need mortgage rates to keep on dropping to allow this pattern to repeat itself.

That part is not necessarily true, depending on how you interpret 'one-time'. When a mortgage is refinanced at a lower interest rate, the monthly payment is less, allowing consumption to be increased for a perpetual period. Unless all of the refinanced mortgages were structured to have the same payment amount with a shorter term, or large cashout and similar term.

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When did anyone say that something 'special' makes the US economy immune to dependancy on foreign capital? When foreignors stop investing in the US, rates of return will have to rise so US consumers don't have to do that awful saving!

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No, we used AI so I wouldn't have to do that gross stuff.

[Ted Striker]

Originally posted by GP
There was an Oped peice by one of the Fed board members today in the WSJ. It discussed productivity gains.

details?

[TCO]

Originally posted by Ted Striker


details?

More message/less statistics than a Freak-post. It was actually a pretty fluffy article. Main point was that the rate of productivity was better in the last few years than before...and that he hopes we can get back to that. That the main thing helping us is a free-trading, post-Cold War world.

[Ted Striker]

Thanks dog.

[Sten Sture]

Who was the author? Gwynn? No one mentioned it all day.

[TCO]

Some guy from the bank in Texas. Can't remember name and gave my paper away after reading it.