How would you organise Iraq's defences?

[notyoueither]

Put your head between your legs and kiss your *ss good-bye.

It is the only way.

[MichaeltheGreat]

The Iraqis have a lot of potential to win this one. Yes, win. Not because they'll ever kick our ass, but because the definition of winning this time hinges off of regime change and occupation.

Any victory by Iraq will be political, not military, by outlasting the US, and by making the cost in foreign policy prestige and propaganda too high.

Any mobile attack by Iraqi forces, or dilution, or attempts to interdict US supply lines as suggested here would be ****ing suicidal. Any use of WMD or attacks on third countries, including Israel, would play into US hands from a propaganda standpoint.

The Iraqi naval forces, such as they are, are seriously ****ed. Same with their air force. Iraqi naval capabilities will be gone before a ground phase ever starts, and the Iraqi air force won't be worth the AAA and SAM protection it has to keep the planes from being ground killed. Write 'em off from the outset.

The US goal is hinged on three major factors:

Iraq is not to be partitioned - in the Shiite south, partition would make the US **** it's pants, along with all the arab states disinterested in an expansion of Iranian influence. (is that redundant? ) In the Kurdish north, our Turkish allies would **** their pants.

Tikrit and Baghdad are the centers of gravity politically and in every other way. The battle of Baghdad has to be fought and won.

The cost, in terms of American casualties, dollars, time, and political prestige, has to be low enough to be tolerable.

The basic outline of a defense plan for Iraq:

Semi-comply with the new inspections regime. Just enough to make it hard to impossible for the US to get it's way in the UN, but not so much that you lose all sense of whatever the hell motivates ongoing defiance.

Write off the Kurdish north and the Basra area - partition isn't in the US goals, and and the Iraqis can not maintain supply lines, move, or fight in the open.

Deploy a couple of low-to mid quality corps somewhat forward from Baghdad, about halfway to the "write off" areas, one on each side of the rivers. This will doctrinally induce the US to bomb the hell out of and drop what bridges still exist, which in the long run hinders movement on both sides and protracts the conflict. But supply line interdiction and isolation of enemy forces is in the book, so it will be done.

Move several command and control centers into the basements of hospitals, particularly air defense command and control centers. Make 'em broadcast long and loud. If there's a hospital for kids or with an extra big maternity ward, put a ghost HQ in there, with lots of radio traffic.

Redeploy most air defense assets to act as SAM traps for very high priority targets only - Strike Eagles, 117's and Wild Weasel / Ironhand missions in particular. Only one lights up, try to induce a Wild Weasel / Ironhand response, and when they commit, saturate them with previously "dark" air defense assets.

Deploy armor and IFV's into the city areas, and put them in factories, sheds, mostly buried in rubble, anything that will make them harder to detect and give them close range first shot chances.

Erect barricades around accessways in and out of different areas of the city, restricting citizens from going out, and forcing US troops to either back away, or fight in an urban environment.

Survey every 3 story and higher building, and look to deploy small anti-armor teams with RPGs, and supporting infantry teams in as many as possible.

Iraqi arty will be useless in the field - dig some of it in in building basements and first floors, with LOS down major streets for boresight fire. Distribute the rest widely in the city, close to buildings, but with limited, overlapping fields of fire a few miles outside the edge of the urban area, so they can interdict any approaching forces from multiple angles. Fire one or two shot missions, then drop, to frustrate counterbattery efforts. Use topside visual camouflage, and lateral proximity to buildings to frustrate aerial targeting and limit angle of approach. Situate shoulder-mount SAM teams on and perpendicular to the direction of any targeting runs by attack helos, so each tube is essentially directionally protected on one or more sides, and hosts a helo SAM trap on the approachable side.

Under the guise of doing construction work (maybe the sewers need to be cleaned ), plant significant explosive charges underground in several high-density residential areas. Do this in a pattern that's strongly reminiscent of aerial bombardment. Keep significant military assets out of these areas. We want arms and legs flying for CNN.

Secretly wire an orphanage or two for demolition - same with an elementary school. Little arms and legs flying, and mommies screaming on worldwide TV. Again, make it look like an impact crater. If you need to fool people with something coming down, set up a 120 mm mortar a ways away, sighted in, and wait for an air raid alert.

Right now, foreign journalists have largely been given the boot. That's good for right now, while you set up all this stuff, but lift press restrictions, especially of European countries, before hostilities start. If the US blocks satellite and wireless transmissions of neutral journalists, so much the better. Make sure there are lots of cooperative Iraqis who will help those journalists smuggle out images of the little arms and legs, the bombed maternity hospital, the starving but determined populace (use out of uniform soldiers, family members of political hacks, whatever, just make it look good).

The goal is to get the US commited in dollars and forces, let them have the two-thirds of the country they don't want to separate, and give them a tough propaganda and urban fight, or a siege option, with resultant casualties and starvation, etc. Let it protract, let world opinion turn, and give the US the choice between a hard bloody fight in city streets, or turning back. Use the UN and the foreign press as a political tool.

edit - typo

[MichaeltheGreat]

Originally posted by Serb
Black Hawk Down is stupid fairytale. I've almost throw up twice when I was watching it.

What the **** would you know, moron?

[MRT144]

id get my hands on nukes ASAP...then detonate them as soon as a large mass of american forces got nearby...he really has nothing to lose in this strategy

[notyoueither]

Except his life. That would be his death warrant.

[MRT144]

are you saying he isnt going to die anyway in this conflict? hell, without his power he might as well be dead...

[MichaeltheGreat]

I'll bet he keeps both (life and power). Saddam has no time to obtain nukes of any size or deliverability, and US units would be widely dispersed. (Even in a "concentrated" attack like the gulf war, US divisions occupied fronts of several miles in width and even greater depth - the lethal radius of a typical current nuke wouldn't necessarily take out as much as a batallion size force in most areas of the division's security zone. In a lot of areas, you'd be lucky to take out a company size force.

[notyoueither]

He'll keep power?

[notyoueither]

Your scenario Michael, would require a highly professional and well trained force to carry out. I do not think the Iraqi forces could ever dream to attempt such a widely dispursed defence. That would require a high level of training and a degree of initiative on the part of officers and NCOs I doubt Saddam's army could ever come near. This is Saddam's army, remember?

[The Mad Monk]

MtG, mind if I post that in a few spots?

[MRT144]

so MtG why are we invading iraq if he doesnt have any nukes that are deliverable or of any size?

edit: i dont know your political standing on the issue, so this isnt directed towards you so much as its a rhetorical question

[The Mad Monk]

Originally posted by MRT144
so MtG why are we invading iraq if he doesnt have any nukes that are deliverable or of any size?

edit: i dont know your political standing on the issue, so this isnt directed towards you so much as its a rhetorical question

The object of the game is to tag him before he gets nukes, not after.

[kolpo]

Completely surrender to Iran in exchange for one thing: You may be governor of the Iran province called Iraq. Or even better: surrender to China.

[MRT144]

so now america will fufill the role of big bully once again

[The Mad Monk]

[T.R.]
Bully! Bully!
[/T.R.]