Floyd, you asked me why I was against the lottery. Here's why:

[David Floyd]

Well, since David couldn't answer, I will. 1:150,000 (appx.)

OK, even assuming 1:150,000, one is stupid to play the lottery. This fact is even reinforced by the more common sense answer to the question (which mine was). So, in that sense, the more ignorant a person is on the subject of math, the less likely they should be to play the lottery, if they are using their brains at all.

[JohnT]

"the more ignorant a person is on the subject of math, the less likely they should be to play the lottery, if they are using their brains at all."

Of course, the more aware a person is on the subject of math the less likely they will play the lottery.

David, it's late and I'm kind of tired, but I think you just argued yourself in a big circle here. But maybe not.

[David Floyd]

Of course, the more aware a person is on the subject of math the less likely they will play the lottery.

David, it's late and I'm kind of tired, but I think you just argued yourself in a big circle here. But maybe not.

I don't think I did. All I was trying to point out was that regardless of level of knowledge on a subject, people are unlikely to play lotteries for anything other than entertainment IF THEY ARE USING THEIR HEADS.

If they become blinded like idiots in search of a get rich quick scheme, too bad for them, I suppose, but it's their own fault. No one forced them to give up money, and the odds against winning were very high, which they could figure out whether or not they know math (as I think I just showed).

[JohnT]

So, what is the chance of winning a 46-number lottery with 6 slots, with a 46-numbered Powerball that is non-deterministic upon the other balls (I don't think I phrased that correctly, but you should get the idea)?

1:310,229,045,280

That's 1 in 310 billion! I never hear that number in the lotto ads!

Without the powerball, it comes down to a manageable 1:6,744,109,680

[Ramo]

You surely aren't going to try to tell me that your odds for winning the lottery IMPROVE as more digits are added to your number guess, are you?

I want you to explain precisely why you think the way you do. Since it's "emminently logical."

That actually proves my point, though

How so? You were completely off. If you were a few more orders of magnitude off, lotteries would actually start making sense.

if my guaranteed prize was over $100.

Usually with odds as bad as that, the guaranteed prize is far, far more than $100.

Not unless you can afford and are willing to buy more than a few tickets.

Even if you couldn't. If the prize were large it'd be insane not to buy one ticket at those odds. I certainly would.

[David Floyd]

OK, but regardless of the game, it doesn't change the basic fact that anyone can reason out the obvious fact that the odds of winning the lottery are very, very poor.

Advertisements do just that - advertise. Beer commercials don't show people throwing up if they drink too much, or dying if they drive drunk. But everyone knows that both things happen - common sense and experience.

[David Floyd]

I want you to explain precisely why you think the way you do. Since it's "emminently logical."

So I misspelled a word at 1 am. Get over it.

And my answer will simply be common sense. Maybe you need something else in order to justify not playing the lottery. I don't, though.

How so? You were completely off. If you were a few more orders of magnitude off, lotteries would actually start making sense.

Maybe, but my guess was not a wild ass guess, my guess was based on what seems to make good sense. If the odds of guessing a one digit number are 10%, the odds of guessing a two digit number are 1%, and so forth.

It's not correct, and I never even tried to claim that it was correct, but it still leads in the correct direction - don't play the damn lottery.

Usually with odds as bad as that, the guaranteed prize is far, far more than $100.

Yes, that's true, but everyone who guesses the right number have to share the prize. I said MY PERSONAL prize, not the overall prize.

Lotteries don't exist to lose money, now do they?

Even if you couldn't. If the prize were large it'd be insane not to buy one ticket at those odds. I certainly would.

OK, fine, granted. What lotteries do you know that offer a 1% chance of winning any sort of substantial individual prize?

Not too many, are there?

[JohnT]

But beer commercials do say "Drink responsibly"!

Of course, it's the mean old government that makes them say that. Bad, BAD government! **JohnT whaps the government with a rolled up newspaper**

[JohnT]

Originally posted by David Floyd


So I misspelled a word at 1 am. Get over it.

You also misused it:

http://www.britannica.com/dictionary?book=Dictionary&va=imminent&query=imminent

[David Floyd]

Yes, they do say that, but that doesn't change the basic point that even if they didn't say that, a reasonable person would know not to drive drunk or drink a case and not expect to puke.

[David Floyd]

You also misused it:

Good God.

Since when are you the spelling/usage police? And I'm not exactly know for making those sorts of mistakes, so cut me a little slack here. We all knew what I was trying to say.

[Ramo]

My gut reaction (i.e. without applying any mathematical knowledge at all) is that my lottery would be two or three orders of magnitude from the real answer. Same with John's lottery. It simply comes down to lottery exploiting the ignorant - the poor.

[JohnT]

I'm not the spelling police: I'm the spelling Nazi!

[Aeson]

I play the lottery from time to time (a few tickets a year, if that). To me it's just entertainment, a minute Vegas vacation if you will. I don't think it's stupid, anymore than any luxury or entertainment is. I understand the odds perfectly.

For those who play the lottery only to win, their money is wasted the vast majority of the time of course...

[David Floyd]

My gut reaction (i.e. without applying any mathematical knowledge at all) is that my lottery would be two or three orders of magnitude from the real answer.

You're saying that your gut reaction to a six digit number is to think you have a GREATER chance than 150,000? Sorry, but that doesn't make any sense.

It simply comes down to lottery exploiting the ignorant - the poor.

First of all, poor people are not necessarily ignorant, just as rich people are not necessarily intelligent.

Secondly, I maintain my statement that any reasonable person KNOWS playing the lottery is inherently stupid, if they think about it for even two seconds.