American position on the PA

[Imran Siddiqui]

St. Marcus, I agree .

It's one of the reasons Musharraf's takeover of Pakistan was SOOO vital. Islamic fundamentalists were going to overtake the state, and PM Sharif was basically handing power over to them.

[Ned]

The problem I see is that we are relying on Arafat to call elections and not run himself. Given Arafat's track record, I don't think this is likely.

We might want to consider economic sanctions on Arafat if he runs for re-election and wins. Yes, I know the Palestinians are suffering enormously already. But just the threat of a cutoff of American and European aid may be enough to make him rethink his position.

The problem with this, of course, is that Arafat would rely even more on aid from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. We cannot influence Iraq to help. Perhaps the Saudi's would, though.

Regardless, we will have to make it crystal clear that failure to call elections will have adverse consequences. Ditto the relection of Arafat or one of his cohorts in terrorism.

True, the Palestinians can elect whomever they want. But they cannot get a Palestinian state without US support; and they cannot get US support with Arafat as its president.

[Imran Siddiqui]

We might want to consider economic sanctions on Arafat if he runs for re-election and wins.

Ditto the relection of Arafat or one of his cohorts in terrorism.

So democracy doesn't matter to the US anymore. Oh wait, it never did, did it?

True, the Palestinians can elect whomever they want.

That ain't what you are saying.

[Ned]

Imran, Of course it makes a difference to us. But we cannot vote. If the Palestinians insist on electing terrorists, then we can cut off aid.

We have a similar position on Cuba and Iraq, except with Iraq, the present leader poses a more pressing need for action.

[CyberGnu]

I think the word part was the obvious one-sidedness of the speech, though.

It would be one thing to declare that 'if you get rid of Arafat I personally guarantee that you will have a state no less than three years later, and the US will use military might to make sure the Israel keeps its word for once'.

Instead we got 'get rid of arafat and we go back to square one'. Yeah, right, great incitement...

The only way something good comes from this would be for the EU to realize that if peace will ever come to the ME, it won't be because of the US... Maybe that will make them take a more active role, possibly by embargoing it like South Africa.

[Dr Strangelove]

Sometimes it is better to have the hardliners at the negotiation table because they pull more weight with the hardline segment of the community.

[GePap]

Terrible speech

While, as i have said many times before, i have absolutely no love for Aafat and do think he has done nothing good for the Palestians (Oslo was a deal he cut with Rabin in which he got power and Israel more settlements for less money), Bus's plan is generally idiotic (much like the man).

If anything, the physical conditions are such that the plan is impossible. Without thier infrastructure, which israel has generally totally destroyed or badly damaged, the Palestinians can't do anything. As long as israel holds control of areas, elections in them are unlikely to happen and difficualt to carry out. What independent Judiciary if there are no courthouses? What security service if all memebrs are 'fair' game for israel and their barracks and jails have ben bombed?

Bush has called for a catch 22 situation (though the book might be too complex for him...) For the palestinians to get a provisional state (for God's ske, he isn't even allowing for a long term solution, so long for Iraq...) the need tocarry refomrs, but until the palestinians can act without israeli invasion, they can't carry out reforms. In short, the Palestiians would need a provisional state to carry out the refomrs they would have to take for the US to back a provisional state.

This so called plan won't do much, and if violence spirals out of control again, well, the shrub will need a new plan.

[Ned]

GePap, I understand that we have Tenet there now fixing the Palestinian security apparatus. If Arafat or some other leader asks, we can help with everything else as well.

I am sure that the US will do everything possible to make a Palestinian state work if....

[CyberGnu]

Dr Strangelove, AFAIK, that worked ONCE (Carter)... The problem with hardliners is that they are usually insane...

[CyberGnu]

GePap:

This so called plan won't do much, and if violence spirals out of control again, well, the shrub will need a new plan.

If?

[Sprayber]

If the Palistinians can't be trusted to elected decent leaders then why is everyone so anxious for them to have a state of their own? Imran says it will take 20 years for Arafat to have enough power to stop Hamas. That tells me a few things.

1. He will never accomplish it since he will surely die before then
2. The Pal cannot be bargained with or trusted to keep any deals that are made.
3. The West Bank would be better off apart of Jordan or be subject to occupation by some power that can do what Arafat cannot do.
4. Some here are content with the status quo and the suicide bombings.


Arafat is not a moderating force for the PA. He is merely occuping a space. The Palistinians should be allowed to elect those people they feel express their views. If that view is the destruction of Isreal then they should be prepared to accept the response of the Israelies. Having your own country is about accepting the responsibilites that go along with it. If they can't accept that then they don't deserve their own nation. This non-state limbo that they are in serves no one except Arafat and a few desk hounds in the UN. Actually the arab states seem to be doing ok with it.

[Ned]

Sprayber, Excellent observations.

CyberGnu, You really do live in a make-believe world, don't you? The Israeli's are not the problem here. Sprayber said it all.

Imagine if the EU did impose sanctions on Israel. We would just have to make up for it and take our costs out of Europe's hide in one fashion or another. Now that makes a lot of sense, doesn't it?

We have to stay on the same page to be effective. We could use EU support.

[CyberGnu]

The Palistinians should be allowed to elect those people they feel express their views. If that view is the destruction of Isreal then they should be prepared to accept the response of the Israelies.

And how is that different from Israel? Should we do the same there?

'Sure, you an elect any one you want for president, but unless it is Perez we will invade you'?

And this is going to improve the siutuation how?

[DinoDoc]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
And Arafat NEVER has had the power to squash Hamas, and no Palestinian leader will be able to in the next 20 years.

Imran, Hamas is a cancer upon the Palestinian cause threatening all hope they have for an independent State solely because it suits them. Even more important than that for Arafat, they are a direct and real threat to his power and likely his life as well. The dumbfounding thing about his behavior is that he allows them to opperate them openly, cede to them the authority to provide numerous social welfare serices, and sign alliances with them. It's absolutely maddening to watch it on the outside.

[morb]

its simple. if the PA people fairly elect Arafat as their leader and vote in Hammas or other terrorist groups as their governing members/body, then it only means that the bulk of them are supporters of terrorism. If this is the case, it means that they are not decent human beings, nore do they want peace for themselves or Israel and want nothing but to war monger.

I think it becomes clear that if this turns out to be true, they have failed their test. There is no course of action left but show of force. Their terrorism support structure must be taken out or there will never be peace in the ME, nore will this area ever be stable.

On a personal level, if they actually ARE war mongers, they don't deserve even the land they claim now. But that's just my view.