Russia in ten years

[The Vagabond]

Originally posted by morb
what i originally meant was pretty much what yo have in your middle paragraph. I doubt myself that the sovereignty of Ukraine is a temporary thing. its likely to stay. but what I do pretdict, is that at least the 3, Belarus', Ukraine, Russia will form a strong economic union. it will happen because Russia is likely to make it out of the rut of all 3 and the other too will simply want a piece of the action. Russia of course will be all too eager to setup legit relations because, 1) both Belarus' and Ukraine are already making money off Russia by selling raw materials that do not belong to them but run through their territories and 2) Russia will have some contiguity with western europe for further economic developement. Its already happening. Ukraine, Russia and Germany (France and Italy soon to follow) have already setup a natural GAS consortium in which Russia will supply the resources, Ukraine will control its flow and collect terrifs for the use of its gas lines (and further development of new lines is already on the plan boards) and the west will play the role of the consumer. Further, Ukraine is likely going to be a key player in any kind of goods transportation duties between russia and the west. Ukraine being physically between Russia and the west is something neither the west nore Russia can get around. It is inevitable that Ukraine will draw closer to Russia for its own benifite. The west doesn't need Ukraine, but Russia does.

So even if Ukraine and Russia and Belarus' won't nessesarily be a single unified soveriegn conutry, they will likely become what Canada and US are to each other.

If so, then I agree with you.

[Az]

yeah, and also putting Russian partisans on trial , and recognizing former SS memebers as war veterans.



Also, prohibiting Russian Language, etc. etc. etc.

[morb]

Originally posted by DanS
"the only difference is that Russia is at this point only marginally better off today than Ukrain, but its potential is much greater for the future."

How do you figure this potential?

"give Ukraine another 10 and they'll be in a similar situation..."

Why the fatalism? On what do you base your pessimism?

I take it that your argument is based on the assumption that the west will somehow be swayed by the economic success of Russia? You would have to convince most people in the west that forming a confederacy is the right thing to do for it to fly, correct?

" No matter how long those republics cry about their ‘independence’, they depend of Russia and always will. Georgian people should elect other president. The policy of their current president is the policy of sick man. Their so-called economy based on Russia, they can’t survive without us. The confrontation with Russia is the dead end for Georgia."

and you sir sound like a broken record. i am well grounded in today's political and economic conditions of Russia and many former republics. and i'm sure i've mentioned before that i have mentioned at least once or 5 times that I have strong roots from this part of the world. if you want to know for yourself how I know what I know intuitively, you can go live there for a few years and find out for yourself. or you can keep on looking at cold unsubstantiated numbers that tell much less than half the story and still not know crap about what's really going on. either way.

[Az]

morb:

you don't know how things are there , DanS.

I also feel like in any case , Kazakhstan could be joining as well, with around 50% of people calling themselves Russians!

[The Vagabond]

Originally posted by Dalgetti
and if the reunification with Belarus will go relatively well

This reunification with Belarus remains a mistery. Nobody really understands what it is going to be like.

All your arguments, Dalgetti, only mean that Ukraine needs close economic relations with Russia. But there is no way Ukraine is going to give up its sovereignty.

[Az]

yes , but will Russia agree , or will it precondition it by integration? with the route to the EU closed because of the 3rd world country that the Ukraine is, It seems that many Ukrainians will be compelled to join. esp., the Eastern regions , which are basically , Russian.

[The Vagabond]

On a side note, stop this avatar masquerade, Dalgetti. We want the red banner back. BWT, who is it now? Leo Di Caprio??

[Az]

yeah, it is. I'll bring it back , I promise.

[The Vagabond]

Originally posted by Dalgetti
yes , but will Russia agree , or will it precondition it by integration?

Russia won't precondition its economic cooperation with Ukraine by reunification in a single state...

It seems that many Ukrainians will be compelled to join. esp., the Eastern regions , which are basically , Russian.

Many, but not the overwhelming majority which is needed for such a thing to come true.

[morb]

oh jeez, i just read that article danS posted as his source. they didn't even get the fact about Russia as it's known today taking root in Kiev right. Most of those russian people in the eastern part of Ukraine didn't "migrate" back to those places with industrialization, they were there to begin with. It was likely the Ukrainans who did most of the migrating east to the cities. the eastern part of Ukraine WAS Russia for 700 years until it was officially "given" to Ukraine by Khrushev in the late 1960s(serb?) as a "gift" for the 300 (somethingth?) annyversary of the two "nations" living under the same rule. Had that not happened, I imagine today's russia would extand all they way past Kiev to the west which is almost halfway the langth of Ukraine. I can assure you those "ukrainians" living under the same conditions would increasingly claim they were Russians instead of the opposite.

to anyone from overseas asking my nationality in a survay I would answer that I'm an American too. I EFFING LIVE HERE AND I'M A CITIZEN. That doesn't mean that I'm not still Russian as well.

[morb]

btw, thanks for the support and good arguments Dal, Vegabond.

[Saras]

--"We know you guys hate us. You've always hated us."

We hate the war and human rights criminals that killed people. Not the nation as a whole. Some of my best friends are Russian.

--"You were the first to leave in '89 etc. We have no illusions of you ever willingly rejoining with Russia."

Rejoining assumes we have joined in the past. That has never happened.

--"Plus you're in a better geographical position than any of the former republics an have the closest ties to the west. So you're free... "

Yes we are, no thanks to you.

--"But at least once a month I hear of something on the news of one of the bastards from over there either smuggling things (and women) out of Russia or robbing Russian citizens or simply murdering them."

You obviously read the wrong news sources.

For a different perspective try driving a TIR truck with Lithuanian licence plates beyond the Belorussian border.

[Saras]

Originally posted by Dalgetti
yeah, and also putting Russian partisans on trial , and recognizing former SS memebers as war veterans.



Also, prohibiting Russian Language, etc. etc. etc.

Where that comes from? Russian language prohibited? WTF?

What pisses me off is that Latvia and Estonia in fact do these things to some extent, but Lithuania is tainted as well, although none of these ever happened. We didn't even have an SS legion - everyone basically dodged it and went to the woods.

Oh, and former partisans - some were NKVD officers that after the war committed atrocities on a large scale and deserve at least a trial, and most likely a prison sentence.

[Saras]

Originally posted by The Vagabond
On a side note, stop this avatar masquerade, Dalgetti. We want the red banner back.

And a swastika next to it, just to be consistent.

[DanS]

"and you sir sound like a broken record."

Morb: I am just asking you for to clarify your opinion and to understand the basis of your thoughts. First you talk reunification and then you talk...

"but what I do pretdict, is that at least the 3, Belarus', Ukraine, Russia will form a strong economic union."

Which is it, Morb?

Re the article, it was probably written to avoid political landmines that I know little about. But the gist of the article remains.

" He is obsessively anti-Russian. His policy consists in gaining points with the West using his anti-Russian stance. Hopefully this won't work for him any longer. This looks especially ugly in view of his past as a Soviet foreign minister."

Vagabond: Ah, I see. When I look at him, I see somebody who is fiercely independent and who is competently reforming the Georgian system.