Russia in ten years

[Ecthy]

You tell me what you guys are going to join next!

Axis of Evil?

[DanS]

"Most people speak Russian as their mother tongue."

Could you quantify that?

[DanS]

Here is a particularly interesting part of the report as it relates to this discussion...

"Nostalgia for the former Soviet Union is stronger among Russians than Ukrainians, and predictably, few Russians identify with Ukraine. In the survey, 51 percent of Russians agreed that "it is a great misfortune that the Soviet Union no longer exists," and another 19 percent agreed more than disagreed. The figures for Ukrainians are 35 percent and 17 percent, respectively. Nostalgia for the Soviet Union appears to be a yearning for a time when at least minimal human needs were met, rather than a strong ideological commitment. The question whether Ukraine and Russia should unite drew a similar response. Twenty four percent of Ukrainians thought the country should reunite with Russia, with an additional 19 percent expressing partial support. Russian percentages were 50 and 33 percents, respectively.

"Opinion differs by region, but differences by ethnicity are not available because the data are not tabulated by both region and nationality. Nevertheless, the desire for unification of some sort appears marginal among Ukrainians in the west, but substantial in the east. Ukrainians comprise almost 90 percent of the population in the seven oblasts that joined the Soviet Union after the war.(12) Only 11 percent in these oblasts favored outright unification, with an additional 16 percent being lukewarm to the idea. In the east, where Ukrainians account for 54 percent and Russians for 41 percent, 46 percent of the respondents favored unification and 33 percent favored it advisedly.(13) "

[morb]

Originally posted by DanS
The Texas analogy isn't perfect. There has never been a language difference between Texas and the rest of the U.S., for instance.

good one! best I've heard today!

oh as far as growing skin, i wasn't saying i was offended, just that you don't really know what you're talking about. which you don't. there are general misconceptions that everyone who doesn't know has been fed and swallowed hook, line and sinker.

that's about it.

[DanS]

OK. So I can assume that you aren't going to address the basis for these opinions?

i wasn't saying i was offended

Could you explain the difference between "offended" and "insulted"?

[morb]

Originally posted by DanS
Here is a particularly interesting part of the report as it relates to this discussion...

Nevertheless, the desire for unification of some sort appears marginal among Ukrainians in the west, but substantial in the east.

yes, and incidently, the farther east you go, the more population density increases. also, I've already mentioned that here several times without the use of any stinkin surveys.

Ukrainians comprise almost 90 percent of the population in the seven oblasts that joined the Soviet Union after the war.(12) Only 11 percent in these oblasts favored outright unification, with an additional 16 percent being lukewarm to the idea. In the east, where Ukrainians account for 54 percent and Russians for 41 percent, 46 percent of the respondents favored unification and 33 percent favored it advisedly.(13) "[/i]

first of all Ukrain was never really "appart" at that point to be "reunited" in the first place. there were strong seperatist and isolationist movements in both Ukrain AND Russia at that time. as history would prove the "reds" were simply much more strong and numerous of all other factions for better or worse. basically, this "evidence" doesn't say or prove anything here.

I'l point out again, that the people have coexisted as one for much longer than this country has even existed, including all the colonial years.

Also I am not nastalgiac over the SU. I left it to escape communism. but it doesn't automatically mean that i wouldn't like to see the people reunified.

think of it this way, what we are talking about is closer to the situation between east and west german. the only difference is that Russia is at this point only marginally better off today than Ukrain, but its potential is much greater for the future. that's why I say that in 10 years when russia begins to get back up on its feet and Ukrain is still where they are today, they'll begin to draw closer. Belarus' is areguably the most distant of the 3 language/culture wise. But they are economically much weaker than either Russia or Ukraine. They've held out for ~10 years being independent, and they're kinda getting tired of it. give Ukraine another 10 and they'll be in a similar situation... mmkay?

[DanS]

"the only difference is that Russia is at this point only marginally better off today than Ukrain, but its potential is much greater for the future."

How do you figure this potential?

"give Ukraine another 10 and they'll be in a similar situation..."

Why the fatalism? On what do you base your pessimism?

I take it that your argument is based on the assumption that the west will somehow be swayed by the economic success of Russia? You would have to convince most people in the west that forming a confederacy is the right thing to do for it to fly, correct?

" No matter how long those republics cry about their ‘independence’, they depend of Russia and always will. Georgian people should elect other president. The policy of their current president is the policy of sick man. Their so-called economy based on Russia, they can’t survive without us. The confrontation with Russia is the dead end for Georgia."

Serb: Shevardnadze has always been very well-respected here in Washington.

[Saras]

--"Their so-called economy based on Russia"

That's one of the favourite arguments by Russians about former SU republics. Did you mean oil and other raw materials?

If so, Japan should join Saudi Arabia.

Morb - Ukraine is in much worse economic state. Read papers.

[The Vagabond]

Personally I am very pessimistic in what concerns perspectives of the hypothetic Russian-Ukrainian reunification in a single state. Sorry, Morb. Certainly, the separation was unnatural and unfortunate. But once that happened, it is practically irreversible. Even assuming for the sake of argument that the majority of the Ukrainian citizens want to reunificate with Russia, there will always remain a significant portion of the population which is against and whose opinion cannot be ignored. Otherwise, instead of mutual benefits we'll only get an additional pain in the ass. In the modern world, unless something unpredictable happens, there seems to be no incentive for that part of the population to change its mind. I don't buy the economic argument, because if Russia goes up economically she will anyway drag Ukraine up.

Perhaps the best for all of us would be to accept the inevitable and to stop unnerving each other with empty talks about reunification. Instead we better concentrate on building a healthy relationship a la EU.

But I would be glad to be wrong on this issue.

[The Vagabond]

Originally posted by DanS
Serb: Shevardnadze has always been very well-respected here in Washington.

The sooner this b@st@rd disappears, the better for both Georgia and Russia.

[DanS]

"The sooner this b@st@rd disappears, the better for both Georgia and Russia."

What do you have against him?

[The Vagabond]

Originally posted by DanS
"The sooner this b@st@rd disappears, the better for both Georgia and Russia."

What do you have against him?

He is obsessively anti-Russian. His policy consists in gaining points with the West using his anti-Russian stance. Hopefully this won't work for him any longer. This looks especially ugly in view of his past as a Soviet foreign minister.

[morb]

Originally posted by The Vagabond
Personally I am very pessimistic in what concerns perspectives of the hypothetic Russian-Ukrainian reunification in a single state. Sorry, Morb. Certainly, the separation was unnatural and unfortunate. But once that happened, it is practically irreversible. Even assuming for the sake of argument that the majority of the Ukrainian citizens want to reunificate with Russia, there will always remain a significant portion of the population which is against and whose opinion cannot be ignored. Otherwise, instead of mutual benefits we'll only get an additional pain in the ass. In the modern world, unless something unpredictable happens, there seems to be no incentive for that part of the population to change its mind. I don't buy the economic argument, because if Russia goes up economically she will anyway drag Ukraine up.

Perhaps the best for all of us would be to accept the inevitable and to stop unnerving each other with empty talks about reunification. Instead we better concentrate on building a healthy relationship a la EU.

But I would be glad to be wrong on this issue.

what i originally meant was pretty much what yo have in your middle paragraph. I doubt myself that the sovereignty of Ukraine is a temporary thing. its likely to stay. but what I do pretdict, is that at least the 3, Belarus', Ukraine, Russia will form a strong economic union. it will happen because Russia is likely to make it out of the rut of all 3 and the other too will simply want a piece of the action. Russia of course will be all too eager to setup legit relations because, 1) both Belarus' and Ukraine are already making money off Russia by selling raw materials that do not belong to them but run through their territories and 2) Russia will have some contiguity with western europe for further economic developement. Its already happening. Ukraine, Russia and Germany (France and Italy soon to follow) have already setup a natural GAS consortium in which Russia will supply the resources, Ukraine will control its flow and collect terrifs for the use of its gas lines (and further development of new lines is already on the plan boards) and the west will play the role of the consumer. Further, Ukraine is likely going to be a key player in any kind of goods transportation duties between russia and the west. Ukraine being physically between Russia and the west is something neither the west nore Russia can get around. It is inevitable that Ukraine will draw closer to Russia for its own benifite. The west doesn't need Ukraine, but Russia does.

So even if Ukraine and Russia and Belarus' won't nessesarily be a single unified soveriegn conutry, they will likely become what Canada and US are to each other.

[Az]

Vagabond: you cannot be sure , really. If the Russian Economy will begin to grow, and Russia has much healthier prospects in that , relatively to the Ukraine , and if Russia will still remain interested in such a reunification, and if the reunification with Belarus will go relatively well, Chances are , that the Ukrainians will want to join Russia. It's not like their economy conditions will meet TODAY'S EU quota in 20 years. They're going downhill , FAST. My grandmother lives there . It's ****ing hell. The only republics that have actually improved their economic position since the fall of the SU , are the baltic states. The others are worse now. Much worse.

[morb]

Originally posted by Saras
--"Their so-called economy based on Russia"

That's one of the favourite arguments by Russians about former SU republics. Did you mean oil and other raw materials?

If so, Japan should join Saudi Arabia.

Morb - Ukraine is in much worse economic state. Read papers.

oh sure, japan and saudi arabia have a lengthy mutual history and are pratctically the same.

We know you guys hate us. You've always hated us. You were the first to leave in '89 etc. We have no illusions of you ever willingly rejoining with Russia. Plus you're in a better geographical position than any of the former republics an have the closest ties to the west. So you're free... But at least once a month I hear of something on the news of one of the bastards from over there either smuggling things (and women) out of Russia or robbing Russian citizens or simply murdering them.

Not really nice.