French Elections : Will Le Pen make it to the second round?

[gopher]

Damn, beat me to it.

[Spiffor]

I'd like to calm the fears of many here about Le Pen and it's irresistible rise to power...
First, his good results come mostly from the very high confidence of the Jospin team, which was sure to be on the second round... After all, all the media announced this since 6 months. Hence a "useless" first round, when you seemingly could vote for sympathetic candidates or remain on vacation (Sunday was in the middle of the vacation for Parisian children).

Second, Le Pen, in absolute numbers, doesn't have significantly more voices than before. Its progression is not as obvious as it seems.

Third, there will probably be a major awakening for the second round, every party except one leftist one said the French must vote Chirac at the second turn. It is highly probable Chirac will win with 80% or so. Still, I say we French must vote for Chirac without thinking it's already won... We just witnessed how horrible this way of thinking is : it allowed Le Pen at the second round.

Four : about Le Pen being an imaginable Premier (I forgot who wrote that) : it's currently not possible because of the designation of the PM in France : he has to recieve the "confidence" of the parliament, which is elected locally. A government party must have many small zones of control to have representatives at the Parliament. Hence, LePen had no representatives since the election is not proportional anymore (1988). Many "Republican" candidates will desist for someone else if they see a fascist is going to win in their zone, as we can see at the national level.

Five : even if he's garbage, Le Pen is human, and gets old as any human. Even if he slowly progresses each time, he'll eventually die before rallying the majority of the French behind him. His death won't kill fascists ideas in France, but he's the only charismatic leader of the far right for now. As the far right is something for dumb, uneducated people, charisma is extremely important. The voters of Le Pen will go back to regular fascism or protestation (by voting for very-right parties or leftist parties)

[The Vagabond]

C'est la lutte finale, groupons nous et demain,
LePennationale sera le genre humain.


PS. Thanks to Ecthelion for the quote

[Guynemer]

Well, keep that self-deprecating sense of humor about you, and you'll fit in around here... even if you are a wacko Buchananite.

[David James]

Now I think I know why everyone fears a strong showing by right wing politicians... not because there is anything inherently wrong with them but because the extreme left responds by violent protest...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/europe/newsid_1945000/1945044.stm

The other intriguing thing is this; why is no one concerned with the strong showing (when votes are combined) of extreme left parties like the communists and trotskyites?

[Kropotkin]

Originally posted by David James
The other intriguing thing is this; why is no one concerned with the strong showing (when votes are combined) of extreme left parties like the communists and trotskyites?

I hardly think there's been any big election wins for anything like that in western Europe for quite a while so it's not really on the agenda.

Le Pen is not a right wing politician, that's Chirac. Le Pen is a extereme right wing, bordering on fascist. Clearly some people around here don't really know of the man...

[Az]

I really don't understand the people saying : "Most people that voted for Le Pen don't want him . "

he has been quite consistant. It's the third election he gets double figures.

[axi]

It is funny how much the media have downplayed the big success of the far-left (trotskyist) parties against the reformist CP.

It is funny that Eli supports Le Pen, since he has denied that the holocaust ever took place.

It is not funny that Le Pen got voted by workers, pensioners and poor people in general. This means that these people see the false way out of their problems.

I wonder what chegitz has to say about the LO and the LCR. Since he's a trotskyist, he should be partying... Che? Hello?

[ZoboZeWarrior]

Originally posted by faded glory
Oh and stop mocking the french damn you! I am now a frenchmen in a game!

FD french !
What happens ?
Gone to canada had was hit one the head by a falling tree ?

[Bereta_Eder]

nationalist,
I usually troll people in these forums to see what they're made of.
Few can veil their true self or beliefs if some pressure is put to them. You are serious and frankly one of the few "opposite thinkers" of me who answered in a polite manner even if tons of trolls are thrown to them. (which, of course as you guessed sometimes a troll hides the person's true beliefs behind it).
So let's argue.

Originally posted by nationalist
Don't really know what your getting at here. I support the right for justice to be served. Some crimes, such as mass murder, are heinous and deserve death. I think that our justice system needs to be revamped to ensure that no one is unjustly executed, but I don't think that the American people should have this legitimate tool of justice taken from them.

In this particualr instance I was talking about the right of your fellow citizen to live if confronted with a serious illness.
I think this is an irrevocable right. The right to medical care (and so the right to life) of everyone. I was not talking about the death penalty.

I am not a rich man by any extent of the word. I am a college student who is joining the Army to get my tuition paid for. My dad is a steel worker. He has earned his health insurance by the sweat of his brow. He is not corrupt. He is a member of the proletariat that you socialists so dearly love. However, in America, most of the proletariat are right wing nationalists (hence my name). This is because globalization is killing American industry.

Not only the american industry...The european and the Greek one too (what's left of it).
Still, where I come from most workers are communist, not right wing. Here the right wing is supposed to look after the interests of the rich, primarily. (oversimplistic view I give but just to get the idea).
But, essentially the workers which are communists advocate the same thing your dad's friends do. The end of globilization if it keeps destroying industries, jobs and ultimately lifes and families.

I don't think that my dad should have to break his back to support a drug addicted alcoholic's right to recieve his fourth free liver transplant.

That's a more than fair point. However, let's say that your dad god forbid found himself without a job for a long period of time. And he had no money to pay for medical care. Wouldn't you want to have the assurance (that every country should offer to itz citizens in my point of view) that he will not suffer or worse just because he happened to be unemployed? (and it's not his fault?)

I take it that you don't extend this right to unborn children, even though they are genetically distinct beings. A woman has no right to kill her unborn child, and a man has no right to abandon his unborn child. That is inhumane.

The Greek Law permits abortions up to the 3rd month. After that it still permits them but for very dire reasons.
I do not believe that a child is made untill some time has passed.
I think it is inhumane to have a child that will put him/her and its mother in misery. I think that is inhumane.
And I believe that NOONE, not a single woman wants to be got in a position where she has to have an abortion. But once she does she should be free to make her own informed decision about her and her baby. To condemn them both to misery for some obscure almost supernatural "right to live - where life doesn't even exist" sounds inhumane to me.
About underbirth (sorry for my english - not my first language) you are partially right. A recent study showed that abortions are the cause for 50% of underbirth in Greece. This is a freightenly high number. But still the causes of it are not abortions but not enough information. And the cause of underbearth are not abortions but the way of life and PRIMARELY the fact that people do not have the financial means to support large families even if they very much want to.

I am not a racist, you do not know me, and you have no right to assume this.

I was trolling you. But to say that arabs coming to Europe is bad or that Mexicans coming to the US is bad rang a bell

I assume you were refering to controlling immigration though...

[Ecthy]

paiktis says such things after losing a debate, don't worry...

So what am I made of?

[faded glory]

Originally posted by ZoboZeWarrior


FD french !
What happens ?
Gone to canada had was hit one the head by a falling tree ?

Read the signature frog boy .Oh and I wasnt talking about PBEM

Au-dessus de mon corps mort le nazi's arrivera à Paris.
viva la france!

woohoo....go III corps!

[ZoboZeWarrior]

Originally posted by faded glory

Au-dessus de mon corps mort le nazi's arrivera à Paris.
viva la france!

Good !

But you should have said "Vive la France!" (If you allow me ...)

If you want I could look for good old french sentences ...

[faded glory]

Its difficult. But as a frenchmen in a game, I can say. We do not roll over and die.

Quite the opposite, the germans fear the III corps. There high command has to bring up large forces just to stop a few of our squads. Cowards!

An thanks zobo!

[Ecthy]

paiktis himself is made of hair, as each of his kind

What the frig are you guys talking about?