Victor beat me to it. Some of our Apolyton posters obviously didn't pay attention in High School.
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A woman has two children, at least one of which is a boy...
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These problems always piss me off. Like the one, "You are on a game show where you must choose Door Number 1, 2, or 3; there is a prize behind one of the doors, and nothing behind the other two. You choose Door 1. The host then reveals that there was nothing behind Door 3, and asks if you would like to change your answer to Door 2. Do your odds of winning increase, decrease, or stay the same if you now change your response from Door 1 to Door 2?<p style="font-size:1024px">HTML is disabled in signatures</p>
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Originally posted by loinburger
These problems always piss me off. Like the one, "You are on a game show where you must choose Door Number 1, 2, or 3; there is a prize behind one of the doors, and nothing behind the other two. You choose Door 1. The host then reveals that there was nothing behind Door 3, and asks if you would like to change your answer to Door 2. Do your odds of winning increase, decrease, or stay the same if you now change your response from Door 1 to Door 2?The church is the only organisation that exists for the benefit of its non-members
Buy your very own 4-dimensional, non-orientable, 1-sided, zero-edged, zero-volume, genus 1 manifold immersed in 3-space!
All women become like their mothers. That is their tragedy. No man does. That's his.
"They offer us some, but we have no place to store a mullet." - Chegitz Guevara
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Originally posted by loinburger
These problems always piss me off. Like the one, "You are on a game show where you must choose Door Number 1, 2, or 3; there is a prize behind one of the doors, and nothing behind the other two. You choose Door 1. The host then reveals that there was nothing behind Door 3, and asks if you would like to change your answer to Door 2. Do your odds of winning increase, decrease, or stay the same if you now change your response from Door 1 to Door 2?
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We batted the three-door problem around on another thread quite awhile back. That one definitely depends on how the problem is stated. If the host says "I'm going to open door #3, I don't know what's behind it" and it turns out to be empty (and he was telling the truth), then your odds don't change if you switch. But if he says "Of the doors you didn't pick, I'm going to open one that has no prize" your odds go up from 1/3 to 2/3 if you switch.Last edited by Rex Little; February 5, 2002, 21:26."THE" plus "IRS" makes "THEIRS". Coincidence? I think not.
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Originally posted by Rex Little
We batted the three-door problem around on another thread quite awhile back. That one definitely depends on how the problem is stated. If the host says "I'm going to open door #3, I don't know what's behind it" and it turns out to be empty (and he was telling the truth), then your odds don't change if you switch. But if he says "Of the doors you didn't pick, I'm going to open one that has no prize" your odds go up from 1/3 to 2/3 if you switch.
Or another way - choose door 1. Either you're wrong (probability 2/3) or right (1/3). Therefore once door three is ruled out, changing to 2 will make you right is you were wrong (2/3) and wrong if you were right (1/3). so plainly, it's better to swap.The church is the only organisation that exists for the benefit of its non-members
Buy your very own 4-dimensional, non-orientable, 1-sided, zero-edged, zero-volume, genus 1 manifold immersed in 3-space!
All women become like their mothers. That is their tragedy. No man does. That's his.
"They offer us some, but we have no place to store a mullet." - Chegitz Guevara
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Actually, ~52% of all born children are male. But infant mortality is higher among males, thus equalizing the scale... as far as I know, these phenomens are yet unexplained. But then, it has pretty much nothing to do with this little brainstorming session.You make my life and times
A book of bluesy Saturdays
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The basic assumption you're making in this problem (if the answer is 1/3) is that there's no relevant distinction between the two boys (since it makes no difference which boy comes first, there's only one boy-boy combo in the set of possibilities, whereas there are two boy-girl combos - one in which the boy comes first and the other, the girl comes first)."Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-Bokonon
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D'oh, already written by Chow."Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-Bokonon
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