Kabul falls

[Seneca]

Re: Re: A Strategic withdrawal...

Originally posted by Thue


Hopefully not - that would be extremely bad form, and a propaganda disaster greater than leaving them alone. In short, the most moronic thing to do short of dropping a nuke on kabul.

They were crazy enough to bomb the Chinese embassy in Belgrade - any strategic gain from that was massively offset by the diplomatic damage (great coalition-building, guys ). Not to mention the shameful bombing of that TV station - they wanted to silence Serb propaganda, so they deliberately target some civilian workers and give Milosevic the greatest propaganda coup ever

So yes, they're quite insane enough to bomb Al-Jazeera...
(Which isn't even pro-Bin Laden especially, just a good example of free speech - you know, one of the things we're fighting for...)

[DanS]

This is a complicated political situation and I wonder whether it isn't just as well that the NA took Kabul. The NA is the weakest faction, so there is little chance that they would be able to keep it, if a renewed civil war were to take place post-Taliban. The US could even provide support for the Pashtun retaking the city.

The reason why it's so complicated is that you have intense internal squabbling among the people of Afghanistan but equally intense regional squabbling. For instance, Pakistan always supported the Taliban. Iran and Russia, the Northern Alliance.

Try to keep your eye on the regional power struggle. It's equally important.

AH: you're FOS. The Taliban is toast. If they had any vehicles that retreated along the Kabul to Kandahar road, they're ultimate "targets of opportunity." We've had experience with these kinds of targets and have been supremely successful...

[Thue]

The news media reports seems to indicate that the domino effect is not over yet, and the taliban is being driven before it. More area is going to fall soon it seems.

[Lonestar]

Originally posted by DinoDoc


I thought it didn't exist anymore.

That's in th' Future, DinoDoc, Don't think Magog(tm) destroyed Kansas yet.

[DinoDoc]

Originally posted by Lonestar
That's in th' Future, DinoDoc, Don't think Magog(tm) destroyed Kansas yet.

Have you read any of the recent storylines? I would have sworn it got nuked quite recently.

[Lonestar]

You aren't talking about that "Worlds at War" P.O.S., are you?


At least Marvel has outgrown such juvenile crossovers....

[DinoDoc]

Originally posted by Lonestar
You aren't talking about that "Worlds at War" P.O.S., are you?

Yes. I never bought it. I just thumbed through a few of the issues.

At least Marvel has outgrown such juvenile crossovers....

Thank God!

[Alexander's Horse]

Originally posted by DanS

AH: you're FOS. The Taliban is toast. If they had any vehicles that retreated along the Kabul to Kandahar road, they're ultimate "targets of opportunity." We've had experience with these kinds of targets and have been supremely successful...

"supremely successful", lol, even the language of the Vietnam bombing debriefs is coming back into vogue. Didn't Nixon say his incursions into Cambodia were something like that?

Well I really hope your right but unlike most of you I actually know what I'm talking about. I've worked in these kinds of war zones.

For mine, giving up the cities is the perfect move. A land mine here, an ambush there. They can run a very effective terror campaign from the hills, or even hiding within the civilian population of the towns. For example when I was in SEA, hand grenades were 50 cents each. You could pick one up at any local market. Lob one of those into a Kabul cafe with a few U.S. servicemen in it and you're on CNN and the front pages again.

The fact is, you really hope its true that the enemy is broken. That doesn't make it so.

But, as I say, I hope I'm wrong

[Thue]

Putin appears to be jelaous (from CNN):

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday that the Taliban are still a threat and warned against being "deluded" by Northern Alliance gains. The Taliban's retreat from Kabul was a cunning, strategic move designed to preserve their manpower and equipment, said Putin, who is visiting the United States for a summit with President Bush.

AH: it seems clear that the population has turned against the taliban, so I don't think guerilla warfare would work well. Besides, the plan is for a peace force to be from other muslim countries, not Americans.
It seems you will get a nice new avatar from mtg . Too bad they are disabled for now .
But if MarkG will let me I will gladly help putting in a special case in the code to have your avatar enabled .

[Alexander's Horse]

It doesn't really matter whether the local population loves them or hates, although it would be better if they had popular support. What matters is that they fear them and I'm sure they can enforce that.

They also have strong support from the border regions of Pakistan, the so-called tribal areas, which are not under the control of the Pakistan government. Peshawar is a major centre for small arms manufacture for example.

So even if the whole country is notionally occuppied I don't think its over by a long stroke.

And I'm looking forward to giving MTG his new avatar

[Sten Sture]

Re: Re: Re: A Strategic withdrawal...

Originally posted by MOBIUS


No wall - No William Reeve, 'nuff said

According to the bbc he is fine...

Wonder if this latest series of developments will allow a partial bombing halt during Ramadan (should start on 17th) or at least during the final week. I would think that urban areas will be taken off the target list, only "front-line" or moble troops will be hit. That would allow a welcome concentration on base establishment, humanitarian aid, and peacekeeping forces for a month or so before winter really sets in.

[Lonestar]

Run, run little Taliban! Run!!


Hahahah!


Gotta go.

[TCO]

Originally posted by Alexander's Horse


Yeah right - just like you did in Vietnam.

God some of you people are ignoramuses.

What aspect of Viet Nam?

[Alexander's Horse]

Nice try GP

[MOBIUS]

Re: Re: Re: Re: A Strategic withdrawal...

Originally posted by Sten Sture
According to the bbc he is fine...

Sorry, I meant if there hadn't been a wall he would have been toast! So who thinks the bombing of Al-Jazeera was on purpose - considering how much the US has been calling for them to be censored, on account of their reports of civilian casualties from US bombing... STORY

Wonder if this latest series of developments will allow a partial bombing halt during Ramadan (should start on 17th) or at least during the final week.

You'd better believe it - there's no reason for them to continue the bombing against the Taliban whatsoever through Ramadan!

I would think that urban areas will be taken off the target list, only "front-line" or moble troops will be hit. That would allow a welcome concentration on base establishment, humanitarian aid, and peacekeeping forces for a month or so before winter really sets in.

Many of those urban targets IMO should never have been targeted in the 1st place!

If they had any vehicles that retreated along the Kabul to Kandahar road, they're ultimate "targets of opportunity." We've had experience with these kinds of targets and have been supremely successful...

I think Dan means the Highway to Hell/of Death when the US bombed the broken and routed Iraqi conscripts and civilians fleeing Kuwait city for hours on end, incinerating thousands...

I still think this is a strategic withdrawal on the part of the Taliban back to their heartland. I think they're hoping that the NA will start their internecine fighting again now that Kabul has been retaken...

I'm also interested in seeing just what kind of a pursuing army the NA will put together since up until now they've been fighting on 'home territory' - are they prepared to go on the offensive and 'invade' the south?

Even if the Taleban does melt away, that's still 50,000+ men ready to take up arms again if Mullah Omar survives, Al-Qaeda will retreat to the mountains and disperse overseas if it hasn't already and then you will might looking at a protracted guerilla war as the various factions of the country struggles to come to terms with running the country...

You're looking at a large number of peacekeeping troops being stationed in Afghanistan for a number of years to come, I think.

What I do think has to happen now if for coalition troops to be inserted into Kabul asap - they should have been on the ground already as a part of the ground offensive IMO. Now if they arrive after Kabul has fallen, it will look as though they're wresting control from the NA, instead of taking the place together, which might not sit well with many in the NA...

One does wonder if at any time our NA allies may not soon become our enemies...? On Newsnight tonight I saw the NA spokesman launch a vicious attack on Pakistan with the Pakistani ambassador to the UK sitting next to him - fortunately one of the two men was well versed in diplomacy!

We shall see!

The important thing is that humanitarian aid can really get flowing into parts of the country that need it most!