GNP, M&A, EBITDA, P/E, NASDAQ, Econo-thread Part 10

[faded glory]

Originally posted by Roland


I don't think it was that fast, but enron was nothing but a hedge fund - in other words, a bet without noteworthy assets. And just like your lottery ticket becomes worthless once the wrong numbers are drawn, so did ENE stock....

I know. It was all false glory. All paper wealth. Had no substance or consistency and it evaporated as quick as it arrived. What happened was the company invested everything. The workers 401k's are officially worthless. The CEO had better sell his mansion, and rent a 1 bedroom apartment. Cause he is worthless also.

'

On behalf of the people of the State of California, Ted:

Your stupid ass governer blames them (political scapegoating)

but I bet you 100 bucks says your power situation remains the same

[Ted Striker]

Well I agree, Governor Davis is pretty worthless, and a big weasel.

Our situation will be fine though, there is alot of new capcity coming online very rapidly.

This next summer will be the only true test, and after that, we'll be okay.

Power conservation has also increased very rapidly.

[pchang]

Probably the most significant economic development (at least in the US) has been the retirement of 30 year treasury bonds.

[Roland]

Dan:

"I wonder what everyone else would have done differently given this scenario."

How about not create a bubble economy in the first place ? Remember how I ranted against his braindead Y2K rampjob ? And now we have extreme money supply growth, the housing bubble at a top, the consumer still at a zero savings rate, the return of fiscal deficits, and - a shrinking economy. Great job, Alan. Just be glad that you're in government, otherwise they'd sue the crap out of you.

pchang:

"Probably the most significant economic development (at least in the US) has been the retirement of 30 year treasury bonds."

Huh ? You're kidding, right ?
Even that announcement let the door open to restart issueing them, and they'll be around for a long time anyway due to slow retirement. More interesting is the flagrant manipulation attempt that worked just long enough to spike another huge wave of mortgage refinancing. I'm wondering which macro-management is ****ed up more: US or Argentina....

[Ted Striker]

Guten Morgen, Herr Rechtsberater.


I have nothing else to contribute to today's discussion!

[pchang]

Roland,
You call the result "the most flagrant manipulation". In my books, this still counts as very significant, so I don't see how you are really disagreeing with me.

[Roland]

No, I said: "More interesting is the flagrant manipulation attempt"

The Fed and Treasury, along with the leveraged speculators, can huff and puff as much as they want. They won't get the house of cards up again once it started crumbling. They'll squeeze out a few more drops of the lemon that is the US consumer, but then it's back to draught again. So it is interesting, but hardly significant, unless they try it often enough to undermine confidence in US treasury bonds.

[DanS]

I bagged my investment in MOT. Seemed like a good time to get out, when the stock was down about 15%. Bad investment in the first place. Not enough margin of safety.

The other stocks in my public portfolio are doing well enough. I am still disproportionately exposed to COMS. Good investment and I continued to add to it over the months, when appropriate. Up about 20% from my purchase average.

KM is still out there. It's getting down to the point where I can start picking it up again. Still, it's up about 15% from when I bought it.

CNXT presents a dilemma of when and if to sell a stock that has made a run. Up about 140% from when I bought it. It's still a good company, but I wouldn't purchase it at this time. I'm thinking of balancing out my losses with a slight march down in my holdings in CNXT.

I am not finding a sufficiently interesting mix of stocks when I look at the screens I'm using. This probably means that I'll have to be more rigorous in my analyses.

[Roland]

Whatever you do: this is a trader's casino... I mean, market.

[Colon™]

It seems Mike forgot to enforce my vacation.

Here’s a funny (or not) report about a consultancy that made an attempt at measuring the wealth corporations create or destroy by looking how much stock price increases and dividends exceed the risk premium demanded to invest in stocks. (if at all)
According to this measure Japanese corporations destroyed nearly $1 trillion in value, while US created nigh-on $200bn and the Eurozone created over $1 trillion in value.
Another conclusion you could draw is that mergers destroy value, since many of the companies at the bottom of the list were big predators, like Vodafone. (Motorola is down there too)

Interested in hearing comments/criticism.

Dan, if you want fat dividends and low P/E's, go Belgian. You'll get an undervalued euro as dessert.

[Colon™]

I assume you guys like to have the link to the report in question.

[DanS]

Interesting spreadsheet. I wish they had gone back 10 or 15 years, though, to include at least one business cycle in all countries...

[Colon™]

Does anyone know whether there’s a market in commercial lending of art?

Dan, I'm sure that if the measure is well received, there soon will be such a list.

I’m surprised to see that Coca-Cola is at the bottom between all those predators and telco and IT household names.

[Roland]

Funny list indeed. I'd also agree that the 1996-2001 timeframe is heavily destorting. But nonetheless we should exploit it for counterhype.

"Does anyone know whether there’s a market in commercial lending of art?"

Lease your Picasso, or what ? I'm not sure what you mean there....

[Colon™]

Let me put it this way, is it possible to generate income out of a piece of art, while maintaining ownership? (other than exhibiting it yourself)