GNP, M&A, EBITDA, P/E, NASDAQ, Econo-thread Part 10

[Ted Striker]

Colon,

Well the thing that differentiates this pill from the sun is that:

1) The sun will damage your skin and can in many cases can lead to skin cancer after high exposure. On a personal note, I am scared that I will get skin cancer as I have very pale skin and as a teenager and child was outdoors all the time. My shoulders experienced second degree burns on them 3 times. Now they are freckled over.

2) The pill not only tans the skin but also PROTECTS it from the sun by boosting melanin production

Not only that, for those in climates where the sun doesn't shine all the time, the pill would be very convenient.

Personally, I'm sold on it.

Roxanne doesn't have a tan, since she's indoors all day at the office. But she looks better without it...

[Ted Striker]

This post was so damn good I had to post it twice.

USA!!!

[TCO]

Originally posted by Sten Sture
GP - just looked through today's 10-Q and I didn't see anything that was too bad; I'd say it was worth taking a closer look. Didn't look at the stock valuation metrics yet.

The financials are a little muddy with the impact of their building project. I hate construction and moving for it's distraction, but should mean that the next 12 mos are more productive than the past 12 have been. Burn rate ex-construction looks contained and maybe they will even be CFOps positive next Q. Given their sales run rate, the balance sheet looks all right size wise...

Thanks, stud!!

[TCO]

Originally posted by Colon
GP, I’m going to check their finances but regarding P/B I’d like to say that I think that whether manufacturing is outsourced or not is irrelevant. The point about P/B is that ratio lower than 1 makes it interesting to a raider to purchase the company, sell the assets and pocket the margin. Outsourcing contracts are useless to him. (there are less aggressive motives as well, such as collateral and the opportunity to obtain certain assets more cheaply than through direct investment)

Colon, you would rarely think of this type of company for an asset sale. I was just explaining the low asset value by saying their production might be outsourced. Sten said he thinks the balance sheet makes sense.

[Sten Sture]

Originally posted by Ted Striker
My shoulders experienced second degree burns on them 3 times.

I didn't know you were into NASCAR...

[Roland]

NASplanes, rather.

So people, did anyone ride this huge bear market rally ?

And does anyone believe that running the US economy like Amazon.com is a good idea ?

[Ted Striker]

NASDAQ up 35% since September 11th.

DOW up 20%

Bin Laden's attempt to destroy the US financial markets has FAILED.

No matter, he will die soon.

[Roland]

"Bin Laden's attempt to destroy the US financial markets has FAILED."

Of course it has.

But Allahn Greenspan succeeds.

[Ted Striker]

Interesting stat I just heard:

Amount of money in US savings accounts: 2.2 Trillion
Amount of money in US money market accounts: 2.1 Trillion

[Colonâ„¢]

Tettster, regarding Meladope, I think we can agree that the impact is unpredictable, but a lot will depend on the price IMHO, the lower the larger the chance it will be used for ‘leisure reason’ rather than just pure medical reasons. So if it passes the trials, manufacturing costs would be a very important factor.

And why are those money stats interesting?

Anybody been watching Enron lately? Any guesses about the impact? (Sten? )

Another question, I noticed at pchang’s site that AOLTW’s liquidity ratios are pretty weak. Could that pose any problems? (Sten? )

Besides, I’ve never could make head or tail out of AOL’s accounts, is that just me or do others share that opinion? (Sten? )

[TCO]

there was a good WSJ article about Enron.

[Roland]

I'd guess Sten might be a bit busy. Last week was total madness in the bond market.

Could get very interesting now. I think that the US bubble has finally entered the terminal stage. Unless the Fed discovers another bubble to foster, we could have just seen the start of the endgame in last week's turmoil.

[Ted Striker]

Herr Rechtsberater,

So when does the recession end and growth start again?

Or does Wurstland economics ban the use of upsides?

[Roland]

Under the technical definition, "this" recession could end in Q1 or Q2 2002. The next one is just around the corner, though, when the reliquification and the housing bubble seriously run out of steam.

[Ted Striker]

Hmmm...that's an interesting take...I would have thought the housing bubble would have been on the tail end of this one...

So:

1) How long do you expect the "lull" between the two recessions to be?

2) How long is the next recession supposed to last?


My prediction originally was that we'd be in a slowdown starting January 2000 and lasting until January 2003.

Now I say April 2000 through April 2003.