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  • #286
    Dan,
    Well I got my computer back today and they put in a new motherboard. Let’s hope the problem is fixed now.

    Teddy,
    ” Actually some of our champagne bottles have warning labels on them to aim them away from people when opening. Do they have those in Eurocomland?”

    No, we have people who know how to open a bottle of champagne.
    DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.

    Comment

    • #287
      Roland: we're talking at cross-purposes. I guess that mainly we agree. But I'm approaching it more from the businesses' perspective rather than the employee perspective--why would a 2,000 hour year be required from a business perspective?

      Btw, a 2,000 hour year is absolutely nuthin'. I could do 2,000 billable hours in my sleep. Hey, wait a second...

      Colon: let me know how it works for you.

      Re KM, I was very lucky to get out when I did. A couple of days ago, I could have been out at $5.05. Yesterday, I got out at $4.13. Today, I would have had to accept $3.30.

      I paid $5.50/share, so it's not an excruciating loss, if a little painful. I'll summarize the overall p/l for last year sometime soon.
      I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

      Comment

      • #288
        What has been going on with KM lately? I though the company had managed a successful turnaround and now there are rumours the company is flirting with bankruptcy.
        DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.

        Comment

        • #289
          Regarding my qualms with inflation in US, Baum expresses my thoughts neatly in her column.
          DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.

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          • #290
            "But I'm approaching it more from the businesses' perspective rather than the employee perspective--why would a 2,000 hour year be required from a business perspective?"

            Demand-side economics, huh ?

            Essentially it boils down to the leisure-income preference of workers. But that's only one side - I wonder what shapes that preference.

            Comment

            • #291
              Colon: I don't think Baum's column was very good. The basis for the argument is weak wrt CPI (why are we all-of-the-sudden talking about core CPI so much? Just because it went up last month? Just because we did last year?).

              Anyway, it looks to me like last month was a blip, as I said was a possibility...

              http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3EZD19JWC&live=true&useoverridetemplate=ZZZ99ZVV70C&tagid=IXLYK5HZ8CC


              "I wonder what shapes that preference."

              Good question. I wonder too.
              Last edited by DanS; January 16, 2002, 14:31.
              I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

              Comment

              • #292
                Actually Dan, core has always been an issue, just not in the mainstream media. The point is that different forces are driving core CPI than overall CPI and despite the US economy having been in a recession for quite some time those forces haven’t abated yet. Again, if the economy remains in the dolldrums it probably won’t be so much of a problem wrt inflation but if the economy recovers strongly there could very well be one. (otherwise there’ll be the problem of a non-fulfilled recovery priced in the markets)

                ”Anyway, it looks to me like last month was a blip, as I said was a possibility...”

                Month on month data are always volatile, y-y data seem pretty consistent OTOH.
                DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.

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                • #293
                  Well, I guess I can't fathom why somebody would be concerned with 2.6% or 2.7% 12-month rate core CPI. In fact, I might be more worried if it were much lower. Inflation, for lack of a better term, is good. It is necessary.

                  But go ahead and worry if you want to! I don't think you'll find any solace in Greenspan's remarks. In his recent economic overview speech, he mentioned inflation only 2 times, one of which was part of the clause "low-inflation environment" and the other "to the continued subdued pace of underlying inflation."
                  Last edited by DanS; January 16, 2002, 16:10.
                  I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

                  Comment

                  • #294
                    ”Again, if the economy remains in the dolldrums it probably won’t be so much of a problem wrt inflation but if the economy recovers strongly there could very well be one.”

                    When I said this I was implying the risk of a much higher level of inflation if recovery is as good as the stock market believes it will be.

                    And since when do I bother about Greenspan’s speeches?
                    DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.

                    Comment

                    • #295
                      "And since when do I bother about Greenspan’s speeches?"

                      When you decided to try your hand at predicting what/when the Fed would see fit that it needs to do?

                      "When I said this I was implying the risk of a much higher level of inflation if recovery is as good as the stock market believes it will be."

                      Nuts!
                      I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

                      Comment

                      • #296
                        "Inflation, for lack of a better term, is good. It is necessary."

                        BLOODY AMERICOM! ALANIST! STATIST! You... you.... Repubicrat!
                        Inflation is bad. Praise the ECB. Inflation is bad. All hail the ECB. Ehm...

                        "Nuts!"

                        Why ? You have service sector inflation, rising labour costs, maybe a weaker dollar, and when the pricing power returns that stock prices are discounting in their funny earnings estimates - voila, inflation.

                        Comment

                        • #297
                          This is a funny discussion and I don't really know where to go with it. You bloody Eurocoms must have a Fear of Inflation gene that hasn't been discovered yet by the gene mapping projects. Comparing 2001's core CPI to the topline CPI number since 1966 that you referenced earlier in this thread, there are only 5 years with similar or smaller numbers.

                          You can't argue against what Colon says (Nuts!), but it only paints--let's say--1/8 of the picture. Yes, there is a risk of much higher inflation, but his arguments don't give you a feel for the magnitude of that risk. Further, he says nothing about either one-shot or cumulative mitigating factors. Lastly, even if the worst case scenarios were to come to pass, it would most likely come well within the bounds of even last cycle's modest CPI numbers--a cycle, I might add, that brought kudos to Greenspam for his management.

                          Everybody keeps hounding Greenspam for printing money, but look at the numbers and you can see that he has been an effective inflation hawk. Securities prices may have gotten a little out of hand, but we had ~10 years of uninterrupted growth, for heaven's sake!

                          Roland: Unemployment should be a mitigating factor against service sector inflation both on the demand side and supply side.
                          I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

                          Comment

                          • #298
                            "You bloody Eurocoms must have a Fear of Inflation gene that hasn't been discovered yet by the gene mapping projects."

                            You Americoms are brainwashed by the Wall street consensus that easy money (and a little inflation) is good. What utter balderdash. Abandon your statist leanings!

                            "Comparing 2001's core CPI to the topline CPI number since 1966 that you referenced earlier in this thread, there are only 5 years with similar or smaller numbers."

                            Add 0.5-1 % or so for changes in methods.

                            "Everybody keeps hounding Greenspam for printing money"

                            Who ? In the US, most people think it's a free lunch.

                            "but look at the numbers and you can see that he has been an effective inflation hawk."

                            You also forgot real estate inflation. It's pretty much the same as Japan in the 80s. High monetary growth, Low CPI, and rampant asset price inflation.

                            "Unemployment should be a mitigating factor against service sector inflation both on the demand side and supply side."

                            Well we're at 5.8 %, and we'll see how much it mitigates. Problem is that most pressure seems to come from special sectors (health care etc), and I wouldn't want to shift an unemployed computer nerd to perform brain surgery.

                            Comment

                            • #299
                              Dan,
                              ” When you decided to try your hand at predicting what/when the Fed would see fit that it needs to do?”

                              Agreed what he says is important because he’s in charge of monetary policy but only for that reason and not because his forecasts about the economy are of such tremendous quality. (quite the opposite)

                              Re magnitude of inflation, considering that services excluding energy services has climbed to 4.0% y-y and median CPI to 3.8% y-y, I’m thinking of an overall CPI of 4-5% and higher in case of a strong and sustained recovery.
                              Of course there’s the possibility of unexpected events, but I didn’t mention this because I consider that to be self-evident and because there’s no reason to assume they’ll be benign rather than malign.

                              As it comes to wages pressure, I haven’t seen its growth slow down much despite the increasing unemployment but I’m honestly interested in hearing a good explanation for that.
                              Last edited by Colon™; January 17, 2002, 17:16.
                              DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.

                              Comment

                              • #300
                                wage pressures

                                Believe me, wage increases have pretty much halted during the 4th quarter and do not appear to going up in the 1st quarter. On the other hand, there is still plenty of PRESSURE to ask for higher wages. Business just see no pressure to grant them.
                                “It is no use trying to 'see through' first principles. If you see through everything, then everything is transparent. But a wholly transparent world is an invisible world. To 'see through' all things is the same as not to see.”

                                ― C.S. Lewis, The Abolition of Man​

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