CIA predicts collapse of EU

[Drake Tungsten]

Not both. One of the two (probably China)...

[BeBMan]

C-I-what?

[Immortal Wombat]

eh?

[Colonâ„¢]

Originally posted by chegitz guevara
There is a growing movement in the U.S. to build a more European modeled economy...

In what sense?

[Ming]

Wasn't it the CIA that said there were Weapons of Mass Distruction in Iraq

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by Ming
Wasn't it the CIA that said there were Weapons of Mass Distruction in Iraq

It was some people in the CIA, and even they qualified it with a, but we have no proof. It was the NSA that excised the more cautious bits from the main report on the subject, and now they want to put the person who was responsible for that in charge of State.

I just have to spend the next four years trying not to pay attention to American politics.

[el freako]

So, this is from the same CIA that failed to forsee the break-up of the USSR and predicted a continued rise of Japan

Europe's population growth has consistantly been underestimated - forecasts made in the 1980's predicted falling population by now when in fact there is accelerating population growth (in the 5 years to 2003 the EU15's population rose by 7.6m up from a 5.1m rise in the previous 5 years).
Forecasts today again predict that populations will start to fall in 20 years time - with their previous track record I would take that with a pinch of salt.

I very much doubt that europe's population growth rate will differ very much from the 0.9% a year less than north america's that it has averaged over the last century (in the last 5 years the gap has been 0.7%)

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by Trajanus
I don't know if other Belgians like Colon will agree, but for me population density here already is way too high.

You don't know what population density is, dude.

[Drake Tungsten]

So, this is from the same CIA that failed to forsee the break-up of the USSR and predicted a continued rise of Japan

It should be noted that Japan's rise was arrested by the very factors that this report predicts will reverse the rise of the EU...

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten

So, this is from the same CIA that failed to forsee the break-up of the USSR and predicted a continued rise of Japan

It should be noted that Japan's rise was arrested by the very factors that this report predicts will reverse the rise of the EU...

High labor and welfare costs? I wasn't aware that Japan was noted for its welfare system, and while high labor costs did play a part, I thought it was really bad, government secured loans that played more of a problem with their economy.

[el freako]

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten
It should be noted that Japan's rise was arrested by the very factors that this report predicts will reverse the rise of the EU...

What? the bursting of a financial bubble?

[BeBMan]

The CIA also gets a cookie for finding this out:

"The EU, rather than Nato, will increasingly become the primary institution for Europe, and the role Europeans shape for themselves on the world stage is most likely to be projected through it," the report adds. "Whether the EU will develop an army is an open question."

Of course, most of us knew that anyway for some years......

[Lefty Scaevola]

What do the Keystone Spys have to say about the EU's WMD?

[el freako]

I think that the effects of aging population will be pretty similar in both the EU and US because whilst the EU has a worse demographic situation the US situation is adversely affected by four factors:

1. The exhorbitant cost of US healthcare.
Healthcare costs in the US are higher, and rising faster than in europe - both the EU's and US's governments spend a similar proportion of GDP on healthcare (around 6.5% to 7%) but the US's system only covers the poor, old and government employees.
As population ages in the US it will see a far larger rise in the cost of it's public healthcare system than europe.

2. Differences in the tax system.
A much higher proportion of US taxation is obtained by taxing income, whereas the EU relies more on taxing spending (via things like VAT or 'sin' taxes) - as retirees have no taxable income but do continue to spend this means that an aging population will have less effect on the tax base in the EU than in the US.

3. The EU starts from a much better fiscal position.
After Bush's tax-cuts and spending splurge the US's structural budget deficit (i.e. that which would happen if the US economy was performing at 'trend') is around 4% of GDP whereas the EU's is around 1%. This means that the EU has more option to increase borrowing to fund pensions than the US does.

4. The US's superpower status.
The US will face the fiscal problems of it's own aging at exactly the time that it is likely to face a serious military challenge from China - if China starts an arms race the US will find it very hard to keep up. The EU faces no significant challengers like this so we will be unlikely to need to increase our defence spending anything like as much.

[Drake Tungsten]

High labor and welfare costs? I wasn't aware that Japan was noted for its welfare system

I don't know if it's "noted" for its welfare state, but Japan has a pretty extensive one.

What? the bursting of a financial bubble?

The bubble burst 15 years ago. Do you really think that's what's holding Japan back now?