CIA predicts collapse of EU

[Drake Tungsten]

I guess you just don't have the slightest clue.

Yep, I don't have the slightest clue. You've outed me with your eminently clever request for detailed and EXACT information on a hypothetical future scenario that I can't provide and couldn't be arsed to even if I could. You sure got me...

[Kuciwalker]

Welfare is a member states issue, and has nothing to do with the EU.

Slavery is a states' rights issue, and has nothing to do with the federal government

(not sure what my point is )

[chequita guevara]

The conservative cry: throw the elderly to the wolves!

This is BS.

[Colonâ„¢]

Drake, you're the one who's supporting this scenario dude, not me. At least tell me why you're supporting it.

As Drogue said, there's no direct link between the welfare states and the EU. If the report would argue monetary policy could lead to a break-up I'd find it much more plausible.

[Drogue]

As you said, a future scenario you can't provide information for. So the aggressive:

Are you really too dense to understand that economic troubles in member countries could lead to weakness, tension and possible strife in the EU? Or are you just taking the piss?

was completely unnecessary, since without any information, let alone evidence, it's impossible to say that it will. Colon wasn't being dense, he was asking a pertinant question. I wish Tenet (or whoever the CIA is run by now) would realise what the EU is and what it isn't. Germany may have a recession due to it's labour laws, but it won't collapse the EU at all.

[Drogue]

Originally posted by Kuciwalker
Slavery is a states' rights issue, and has nothing to do with the federal government

(not sure what my point is )

Clearly it wasn't, unless my US history is a lot mroe rusty than I thought

[chequita guevara]

The thing is, the CIA issues many reports. It's very likely there's another report in the CIA saying that the EU is going to kick our economic asses. I doubt this is actually what the CIA, as a whole, is saying will happen.

[Traianvs]

We all know the CIA gives "trustworthy" information, so they just gotta be correct on this one!

Seriously, Europe is overpopulated already, and taking in more and more people in is not an option. I don't know if other Belgians like Colon will agree, but for me population density here already is way too high. Our world, and in particular our region can't support this population forever; sure for now we succeed, but anybody can see that this is impossible to remain like this throughout the next century or so.

THE CIA has predicted that the European Union will break-up within 15 years unless it radically reforms its ailing welfare systems.

What a joke. Take Belgium's welfare system for example. Sure we have to pay a lot of taxes, but the percentage of our budget spent on medical welfare for example is lower than that of the US, and our system is like.. way better. Sure it'll be hard to sustain the system with an aging population.
On the other hand that's simply a temporary problem. What happens is that we'll be facing this problem in the near future, but after that there is a period in which we'll have a lower population (lower birthrates) in which we'll be able to keep up the costs. If society stays like it is now (highly unlikely) the phenomenon will be fluctuating.
Importing people from other countries just increases the problem. The more people, the more old people yo uwill have, especially in highly developed countries like ours, where people have a good chance of getting really old. I don't think we actually want to increase the population. In fact we should try to decrease it, worldwide too.

[Drake Tungsten]

was completely unnecessary, since without any information, let alone evidence, it's impossible to say that it will.

No one said that it will (except maybe the CIA). I said it could happen and I stand by my statement. The health of welfare systems affects the general economic health of a country and unhealthy economies amongst EU member states could definitely lead to problems for the Union.

I doubt this is actually what the CIA, as a whole, is saying will happen.

I agree. Makes for a snappier title though, doesn't it?

[chequita guevara]

I agree, it definately could happen. I don't think it will happen, though. On the other hand, I also predicted the Berlin Wall would still be standing today, in the spring of 1989. (I should note: this was before I was a communist.)

[Drogue]

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten

was completely unnecessary, since without any information, let alone evidence, it's impossible to say that it will.

No one said that it will (except maybe the CIA). I said it could happen and I stand by my statement. The health of welfare systems affects the general economic health of a country and unhealthy economies amongst EU member states could definitely lead to problems for the Union.

Yes, but declaring that some is "too dense to understand that economic troubles in member countries could lead to weakness, tension and possible strife in the EU" just because they don't think it will generally implies that you do think it will. I think it could, though I think it unlikely. Moreover, even if I thought it would, but was not sure, I wouldn't declare someone was dense for believeing otherwise, as you did. You also stated that you agreed with the article, which implies you agreed with the statement the CIA made in it.

I wasn't saying you were wrong, but your blind dismissal and insult of someone who thinks you probably are seems overtly agressive, unnecessary and rather silly, to me.

[oedo]

They were just guessing.

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by oedo
They were just guessing.

No, I think it's more wishful thinking. The CIA isn't merely an analytical agency. It also produces ideology, and in this case, this report is likely more for internal U.S. consumption than to develop actual policy around a predicted EU collapse. There is a growing movement in the U.S. to build a more European modeled economy, and this is a salvo in the war by conservtivies to head this off.

[Drake Tungsten]

Yes, but declaring that some is "too dense to understand that economic troubles in member countries could lead to weakness, tension and possible strife in the EU" just because they don't think it will generally implies that you do think it will.

He didn't question whether it will happen or not. He questioned whether there was any sort of connection between the health of European welfare states and the health of the EU. Pretty assinine statement, IMO. Maybe I responded too harshly (I've certainly been guilty of this on occasion), but I'm not one to mince words...

[chequita guevara]

Meh. India and China will PWN us both in a century.