Mac to go below $500?

[Zopperoni]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
Do you have citations to prove this? Perhaps some statistical analysis? Frankly, I think those that post in such generalities about people without proof are the morons .

This is why I asked the question about QWERTY


Digital music is not a niche market, it's a sector that's still in the first half of the diffusion curve. Take-off has taken place though and I believe that we're already in the late majority phase.

[Asher]

Have we all forgotten history?

Apple had a good start with the Mac when it was new and novel. Apple is employing an identical lock-in based business strategy now, just like they did before. They haven't learned from their mistakes.

Once the general public gets sick of the iPod novelty, and its popularity makes it un-hip (it's already entering that phase...), and mixed with a burgeoning market of competitors that are cheaper and don't lock you in, Apple will feel the hurt with the iPod just like they did the Mac.

It's pathetically predictable. Jobs has always been a stellar marketing guy, and a decent innovation driver, but he lacks any sort of long-term business planning and strategy.

[Agathon]

Jesus... you don't know anything, do you?

[Imran Siddiqui]

Digital music is a market that can only expand.

True, but it isn't there yet. When it becomes the main music market we'll have to see what happens. There is also that whole Beatles 'Apple' case .

We all know that Mac users have a higher vocabulary than PC users, so

Vocabulary does not always equal intelligence. Besides, this wasn't who is smarter, but your contention that most PC users are morons. Stop AVOIDING the question .

Digital music players not a nitch market; they are a growing market and everybody wants one, though not everyone is able to justify the cost of buying one.

What percentage of the total market do they have? So for NOW, they are a niche (thanks Spiffor) market. Maybe when the percentage increases, we can look at it again.

What are you talking about?

You really need to read the posts you are responding to. I asked if you wanted to make a wager that Apple will not have more than 5% of the personal computer market.

[Mr. Nice Guy]

Originally posted by Agathon
Jesus... you don't know anything, do you?

Actually, Jesus knows all. And he knows you and me and Asher and everyone else who has ever lived, is living and will live. Praise the Lord!

[Asher]

Originally posted by Agathon
Jesus... you don't know anything, do you?

I know that the iPod's success right now was based on its style and hip-ness, things we know to be fad-based.

Once something becomes obligatory, it's not hip. Trends begin to deviate into other directions.

Further, we know that consumers don't like paying through the nose for only mediocre hardware, when the competition offers the same or better for cheaper. We also know that consumers don't like to be locked in without any choice.

That's why the Mac is failing to capture any reasonable amount of marketshare, that's why the iPod will dimish substantially in the long run as well.

I don't know how anyone can think Apple can keep anywhere near the marketshare they have now in the future with harder, more frequent competition, a more educated consumer base with more experience in digital music players, and the backlash from the iPod's popularity.

[Zopperoni]

Originally posted by Asher
Jobs has always been a stellar marketing guy, and a decent innovation driver, but he lacks any sort of long-term business planning and strategy.

Lock-in is actually aimed at sustaining a long-term relationship. The problem is, however, that the consumer's switching costs aren't high enough to function as a decent threshold.

[Imran Siddiqui]

I know that the iPod's success right now was based on its style and hip-ness, things we know to be fad-based.

Once something becomes obligatory, it's not hip. Trends begin to deviate into other directions.

That seems to fly in the face with how many iPods are flying off the shelves these days. If they are everywhere and that would hurt their hip-ness, we'd expect their sales to drop dramatically. That hasn't happened yet.

[Zopperoni]

Originally posted by Asher
I don't know how anyone can think Apple can keep anywhere near the marketshare they have now in the future with harder, more frequent competition, a more educated consumer base with more experience in digital music players, and the backlash from the iPod's popularity.

Depends on what they do with it. There's some interesting innovative research on human connectedness through mobile devices. If released in time and with the right network externalities, it could be a major success, but this goes for every manufacturer/brand.

[Mr. Nice Guy]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
Vocabulary does not always equal intelligence. Besides, this wasn't who is smarter, but your contention that most PC users are morons. Stop AVOIDING the question .

They are morons, at least when they get on their computers. I know this is true for about 95% of my own family (and that includes extended family).

What percentage of the total market do they have? So for NOW, they are a niche (thanks Spiffor) market. Maybe when the percentage increases, we can look at it again.

No, market share matters not because this is a market that will eventually replace everything else. Right now, though, it is still in it's early stages.

You really need to read the posts you are responding to. I asked if you wanted to make a wager that Apple will not have more than 5% of the personal computer market.

I ain't making no wagers.

[Agathon]

edit: @ Asher: Yes. I remember you saying this crap two years ago.

I guess you can't ever come up with anything new.

[Agathon]

That seems to fly in the face with how many iPods are flying off the shelves these days. If they are everywhere and that would hurt their hip-ness, we'd expect their sales to drop dramatically. That hasn't happened yet.

Don't worry Imran. Asher is so obviously a genius that he knows how market trends work, and has decided that everything will be different this time.

If the ipod follows the usual course, Apple will be selling even more of them. But again, why take the word of professional stock analysts when Asher can pull the truth out of his ass at will?

[Fake Boris]

Originally posted by Asher
Further, we know that consumers don't like paying through the nose for only mediocre hardware, when the competition offers the same or better for cheaper. We also know that consumers don't like to be locked in without any choice.

Uhh... what's so mediocre about the iPod? the Zen might be technically a bit better, but the difference certainly isn't staggering. And it just looks ugly.

And I don't see the problem with on-line music stores. Most people just don't buy their music online anyway. Even then, the iTunes Music Store is just fine.

[Agathon]

Further, we know that consumers don't like paying through the nose for only mediocre hardware, when the competition offers the same or better for cheaper

But they aren't. Creative's players are aesthetically unappealing and lack the simplicity of the ipod. The ipod's competitors appeal to techie people who are obsessed with features, but who are incapable of realizing that most people want something simple.

[Imran Siddiqui]

They are morons, at least when they get on their computers.

What is the basis for this comment? Why are they morons? What do they do that is stupid? Yes, some people are morons. Some people do dumb things. But how is that most PC users?

market share matters not because this is a market that will eventually replace everything else. Right now, though, it is still in it's early stages.

And thus being in early stages is a niche. We'll see what happens when it is the majority. Maybe we will see what happened with computers where Apple was overtaken. Maybe not. But for now, it's a very, very small part and we can't really predict anything.

But, it's been a very shrewd move for Apple. If they are still the majority maker when digital music becomes everywhere, then they did it by entering into a niche market and riding it until it became a majority market.

I ain't making no wagers.

I guess you see the error of your predictions .