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I remember that new years predictions is a thread we have had in the past here in Apolyton, it was pretty good....
Post your predictions in 2005 for politics, economics, entertainment, or whatever.
Mine:
- Elections in Iraq will go off as planned. Violence will disrupt the elections in a few places, particularly in the Sunni triangle, however most Iraqis will still be able to manage to get their vote in. The Sistani list will win the elections, and the traditional power pattern will be reversed with a Shiite leading Iraq. Sunni Arab hostility to the government will continue, but the government will gain more legitimacy among the Shiite Majority, as well as among the Kurds. In spite of democratic elections, the European nations which opposed the war will still be extremely skeptical of the government and not help in any significant way. The Iraqi government is able to get more recruits from the Shiite and Kurdish areas, and fighting will continue as the government tries to assert control of it's country.
- The Asian central banks who are currently trying to push up the strength of the dollar will begin to diversify to try to avoid being caught with too many dollars when it goes down. The dollar plummets, people begin to demand higher interest rates. The US government is put in a situation where it needs to raise taxes or cut spending. Congress passes a deficit reduction bill will cuts spending to some degree, but isn't strong enough to actually stop the deficit, but does make it look politically like they are anti-deficit. Inflation occurs as a weakening dollar decreases imports. The world economy as a whole is hit as the USA imports less goods from it.
- Troubles will continue in Europe with tensions between Islamic immigrants and West European natives, however reluctance to address this issue among Europe's establishment parties prevents anything of substance from being done about this, and the size of the Islamic minority will continue to increase.
- In the USA, Bush will be able to get something similar to an amnesty through allowing additional immigration. Medical Malpractice reform is passed, we will probably see tax reform of some sort. A much more emboldened Republican majority will push through it's judges, using the "nuclear option" of disallowing filibusters for judicial confirmations if need be, the federal judiciary will get more conservative judges.
- In spite of Abbas replacing Arafat, Sharon and Abbas will be unable to come to any peace deal. Sharon will continue to push a plan of unilateral sepeartion, building up the wall between the parts of the West Bank Israel wants to keep and the parts that will be given to the Palestinians. The Gaza Strip will be withdrawn from.
- Saddam will be found guilty for atrocities committed during his regime, will be sentenced to death.
Anyone else want to try?
Post your predictions in 2005 for politics, economics, entertainment, or whatever.
Mine:
- Elections in Iraq will go off as planned. Violence will disrupt the elections in a few places, particularly in the Sunni triangle, however most Iraqis will still be able to manage to get their vote in. The Sistani list will win the elections, and the traditional power pattern will be reversed with a Shiite leading Iraq. Sunni Arab hostility to the government will continue, but the government will gain more legitimacy among the Shiite Majority, as well as among the Kurds. In spite of democratic elections, the European nations which opposed the war will still be extremely skeptical of the government and not help in any significant way. The Iraqi government is able to get more recruits from the Shiite and Kurdish areas, and fighting will continue as the government tries to assert control of it's country.
- The Asian central banks who are currently trying to push up the strength of the dollar will begin to diversify to try to avoid being caught with too many dollars when it goes down. The dollar plummets, people begin to demand higher interest rates. The US government is put in a situation where it needs to raise taxes or cut spending. Congress passes a deficit reduction bill will cuts spending to some degree, but isn't strong enough to actually stop the deficit, but does make it look politically like they are anti-deficit. Inflation occurs as a weakening dollar decreases imports. The world economy as a whole is hit as the USA imports less goods from it.
- Troubles will continue in Europe with tensions between Islamic immigrants and West European natives, however reluctance to address this issue among Europe's establishment parties prevents anything of substance from being done about this, and the size of the Islamic minority will continue to increase.
- In the USA, Bush will be able to get something similar to an amnesty through allowing additional immigration. Medical Malpractice reform is passed, we will probably see tax reform of some sort. A much more emboldened Republican majority will push through it's judges, using the "nuclear option" of disallowing filibusters for judicial confirmations if need be, the federal judiciary will get more conservative judges.
- In spite of Abbas replacing Arafat, Sharon and Abbas will be unable to come to any peace deal. Sharon will continue to push a plan of unilateral sepeartion, building up the wall between the parts of the West Bank Israel wants to keep and the parts that will be given to the Palestinians. The Gaza Strip will be withdrawn from.
- Saddam will be found guilty for atrocities committed during his regime, will be sentenced to death.
Anyone else want to try?
. Wishful thinking.
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