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I don't know if the lack of attention on this is because you guys are sick of the election or what, but I'm sure as hell not. This is the official recount thread (different from the other ones, Ming).
This election is just about to get good... and its not over yet. Its not even close to being over yet. People who've seriously doubted the election results announced on Nov. 3rd have been labeled as conspiracy theorists and "sore loser liberals". But now its gone beyond that and there is a legitimate case for challenging the election results, and the legal paperwork is already being filed for it to actually happen.
source
Lets recap what we know so far. Given the current electoral situation as of Nov. 2, the President cannot win re-election without the State of Ohio. The State of Ohio is still counting its ballots, which it won't finish until Dec. 1st at the LATEST ( source ). Currently, the President leads Ohio by around 136,000 votes. However, there are 155,000 votes uncounted as povisional ballots. 81 percent of these ballots have been deemed officially valid (source), and if history is any indicator (and it usually is), a large majority of Provisional ballots cast in Ohio in 2000 went to Gore, which would mean that its not unsafe to assume that in 2004 it will be the same. These provisional ballots alone cannot, at least short of a miracle, win Kerry the election. But people tend to forget about the other 92,000 "undervote" ballots(source), of which are largely cast by democratic supporters (source 1, 2).
Do the math folks, with 90% of the 81% Prov. ballots in Ohio, Bush's lead gets cut from 135,000 to around only 30-40 thousand. Then add in the undervote ballots (which were cast by about 50+% black voters) and the election either gets insanely close (like Florida 2000) or Kerry wins.
So what do you guys think is going to happen? And before all you Bush supporters shrug this off, remember... its going to happen now. I'm not saying Kerry will win, but its definately going to get down to the wire again.
Discuss
Relevant links:
Letter from Ohio SOS (dated yesterday, Nov. 19)
David Cobb and Michael Badnarik Official Recount Page
This Election is Not Over (for all the Math)
Democrats Take Up Fight Over Ohio Ballots
Voter Suppression Challenged by Ohioans, Allies
Democrats Take up Fight Over Ballots
More to come...
Edit: I meant undervotes, not spoiled ballots
This election is just about to get good... and its not over yet. Its not even close to being over yet. People who've seriously doubted the election results announced on Nov. 3rd have been labeled as conspiracy theorists and "sore loser liberals". But now its gone beyond that and there is a legitimate case for challenging the election results, and the legal paperwork is already being filed for it to actually happen.
The process has started! To make sure that there is enough time for a full and fair recount, attorneys for David Cobb and Michael Badnarik on November 17th sent formal letters via overnight delivery to all 88 Ohio county election directors, asking them to prepare for the recount.
The next step? A formal demand for a recount is being delivered on November 19th to the county elections directors and Secretary of State Blackwell, along with a bond for $113,600 to cover the cost of $10 per precinct needed to request a recount.
The next step? A formal demand for a recount is being delivered on November 19th to the county elections directors and Secretary of State Blackwell, along with a bond for $113,600 to cover the cost of $10 per precinct needed to request a recount.
Lets recap what we know so far. Given the current electoral situation as of Nov. 2, the President cannot win re-election without the State of Ohio. The State of Ohio is still counting its ballots, which it won't finish until Dec. 1st at the LATEST ( source ). Currently, the President leads Ohio by around 136,000 votes. However, there are 155,000 votes uncounted as povisional ballots. 81 percent of these ballots have been deemed officially valid (source), and if history is any indicator (and it usually is), a large majority of Provisional ballots cast in Ohio in 2000 went to Gore, which would mean that its not unsafe to assume that in 2004 it will be the same. These provisional ballots alone cannot, at least short of a miracle, win Kerry the election. But people tend to forget about the other 92,000 "undervote" ballots(source), of which are largely cast by democratic supporters (source 1, 2).
Do the math folks, with 90% of the 81% Prov. ballots in Ohio, Bush's lead gets cut from 135,000 to around only 30-40 thousand. Then add in the undervote ballots (which were cast by about 50+% black voters) and the election either gets insanely close (like Florida 2000) or Kerry wins.
So what do you guys think is going to happen? And before all you Bush supporters shrug this off, remember... its going to happen now. I'm not saying Kerry will win, but its definately going to get down to the wire again.
Discuss
Relevant links:
Letter from Ohio SOS (dated yesterday, Nov. 19)
David Cobb and Michael Badnarik Official Recount Page
This Election is Not Over (for all the Math)
Democrats Take Up Fight Over Ohio Ballots
Voter Suppression Challenged by Ohioans, Allies
Democrats Take up Fight Over Ballots
More to come...
Edit: I meant undervotes, not spoiled ballots
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