Falluja operation underway

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by GePap
If the City goes quickly and without much trouble, that will only mean th insurgents scaterred and got out of dodge to fight another day in toher places.

Obviously the US will win this battle- the problem is, I seriously doubt this will be a knockout punch at all.

Some will undoubteld scatter, and Zarqawi may escape. But they will lose money, arms, fighters - the coalition will pick up intell - and probably they will not gain a new sanctuary.

But this helps to define the metrics for success, given that the Coalitin will certainly end up in control of they city
1. Hostiles killed and captured- the more the better, despite the claim that this leads to more. Captured better than killed, as more intell gathered. The more of the killed and captured who are foregn jihadis, rather than Iraqis, the better.
2. Fewer Coalition troops killed the better. Not only keep support at home, but to impress folks over there.
3. Fewer civilian casualties the better.
4. Less material damage to the city and its infrastructure the better
5. The more insurgent war material and money captured/destroyed the better
6. The more intell material captured the better
7. The better friendly Iraqis perform the better.

So far we've captured in excess of 40 hostiles at the hospital. At least a couple of Moroccans. Iraqi commandos seem to have performed very professionally, though NPR reports desertions in other Iraqi units.


And hospital captured INTACT. Good.

[Arrian]

I note that the Hospital was the first thing we went after.

-Arrian

[Last Conformist]

Conclusion: The insurgents should place explosives in hospitals, mosques, and the like so they can demolish them when forced to evac.

Conclusion2: The Coalition should be as liberal as possible in classified dead people as insurgents.

[Patroklos]

How does to battalion artillery detachments and one gunship deliver a "crushing" barrage?

I find the clerics accusation that we are declaring war on innocent civilians absurd. Obviously if this was the case we would have several million dead already.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Arrian
I note that the Hospital was the first thing we went after.

-Arrian

the hospital which overlooked the two bridges, which we also went after. Moving in from the west, to scatter them to the east, against the Black Watch? Or moving in from the north and east to hammer them against the anvil of the River?

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Last Conformist
Conclusion: The insurgents should place explosives in hospitals, mosques, and the like so they can demolish them when forced to evac.

I saw a report that there were booby traps in the hospital. Wiring a place for demolishing is not simple though, and sometimes goes wrong.

[Last Conformist]

Originally posted by Patroklos
How does to battalion artillery detachments and one gunship deliver a "crushing" barrage?

The same way, I suppose, that literally dozens Fedayiin Saddam offered tough resistance to American mechanized divisions back during the invasion, as repeatedly reported in the news.

[lord of the mark]

CNN:

CNN's Jane Arraf, embedded with U.S. troops on the northeast edge of the Falluja, said that the forces cut power to the city before the start of the assault.

Military officials told Arraf that the Army had achieved one of its initial goals -- clearing a path through insurgent defenses in the northern part of the city. Insurgents had set up strings of homemade bombs capable of causing heavy damage.

U.S. forces destroyed the booby traps, triggering explosions and fire.

[Patroklos]

The same way, I suppose, that literally dozens Fedayiin Saddam offered tough resistance to American mechanized divisions back during the invasion, as repeatedly reported in the news.

Exactly, the media needs to monitor their adjective usage so we can actually get some realtive meaning from the descriptions.

It is like my mom saying my room was a disaster area whether I had left a sole sock on the floor or set off a hand grenade.

Local news is great. "Special fact finding commision super duper team 5 special uber-secret report, are their actual weapons at the Yorktown Naval Weapons Station? Excluse team five report at six!"

[Arrian]

Yeah, our local newies think awfully highly of themselves too. "Live, local, latebreaking!!" They are especially proud of their weatherman (who appears to enjoy saying things like "we COULD see up to XYZ inches of snow" like, oh, every time there is snow coming. XYZ is usually the highest possible projection).

-Arrian

[Patroklos]

Weathermen are great, using their "B** F***ing Doppler 2000."

The thing is because of the curviture of the earth Doppler pretty much ranges out a 70-80 miles (and because of what doppler a local channel can afford. All the stations actually get Nationl Weather Service reports and just tie it into their little window. All the stations give you the same weather report!

Oh yeah, and some Falluja whatnot...

[GePap]

Its pretty obvious that the US will win the battle militarilly, and this will slow down the insurgency for a few months perhaps- the issue is, will this be a "crushing blow" a "turning point", or will this knock out the insurgents? Most likely not- we have underestimated the number of insurgents and how widespread they are time after time.

So come January , we will still have attacks on police, still have roadside bombings, still have suicide attacks- maybe less than currently, but still commonly, and that does not even answer the question of what the sunni pop. will do with the election, depending what their choices are, or what happens post election.

I fear Fallujah is the new Saddam- the idea that getting one thing (or person) will magically solve the problem of the insurgency.

[Last Conformist]

Did anyone really believe that capturing Saddam would lead to an immediate end to the insurgency?

[Sandman]

It's the new Tora Bora. The insurgents will slink away, and regroup.

Quite why the Americans have felt the need to take so long over this is beyond me. A surprise attack would have been more effective at disrupting the insurgents, IMO.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by GePap
Its pretty obvious that the US will win the battle militarilly, and this will slow down the insurgency for a few months perhaps- the issue is, will this be a "crushing blow" a "turning point", or will this knock out the insurgents? Most likely not- we have underestimated the number of insurgents and how widespread they are time after time.

So come January , we will still have attacks on police, still have roadside bombings, still have suicide attacks- maybe less than currently, but still commonly, and that does not even answer the question of what the sunni pop. will do with the election, depending what their choices are, or what happens post election.

I fear Fallujah is the new Saddam- the idea that getting one thing (or person) will magically solve the problem of the insurgency.

We shall see. Its not clear to what extent the insurgents in Baghdad, Mosul, and elsewhere rely on Falujah for money, materials, as a training base, etc.

And of course theres still political work to be done in Iraq, primarilly by the Iraqis. But first they must be given sufficient security to carry out that work. And sufficient security would enable expanded UN operations, the return of NGO's, etc. I dont think the importance of improving security should be underestimated.

And I dont think the role of Fallujah in the insurgency should be underestimated. The insurgents themselves have devoted heavy resources to its defense.

We may have underestimated the number of insurgents in the past - notably when for months the Pentagon said, no more than 5000, and then a figure of 20000 was quoted, though i note it was never clarified whom that represented. Certainly these massive numbers did NOT prevent the restoration of order in Najaf. And Basra. And Sadr City. While insurgents in Samarra have proved more resilient than those is Sadr City, that may be well be related to their Fallujah connections.