Why Kerry Failed

[Sava]

They vote Republican because they are stupid. They believe him when he says he has "moral values". They are suckered into voting for Bush because of the social values. They don't realize they are voting against their own economic interests.

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

Link

The myth of the bigoted Christian redneck
Charles Krauthammer (archive)


November 12, 2004 | Print | Send


WASHINGTON -- In 1994, when the Gingrich revolution swept Republicans into power, ending 40 years of Democratic hegemony, the mainstream press needed to account for this inversion of the Perfect Order of Things. A myth was born. Explained the USA Today headline: ``Angry White Men: Their votes turned the tide for the GOP.''

Overnight, the revolution of the Angry White Male became conventional wisdom. In the 10 years before the 1994 election, there were 53 Nexis mentions of angry white men in the media. In the next seven months there were more than 1,400.

At the time, I looked into this story line -- and found not a scintilla of evidence to support the claim. Nonetheless, it was a necessary invention, a way for the liberal elite to delegitimize a conservative victory. And even better, a way to assuage their moral vanity: You never lose because your ideas are sclerotic or your positions retrograde, but because your opponent appealed to the baser instincts of mankind.

Ten years and another stunning Democratic defeat later, and liberals are at it again. The Angry White Male has been transmuted into the Bigoted Christian Redneck.

In the post-election analyses, the liberal elite, led by the holy trinity of The New York Times -- Krugman, Friedman, and Dowd -- just about lost its mind denouncing the return of medieval primitivism. As usual, Maureen Dowd achieved the highest level of hysteria, cursing the Republicans for pandering to ``isolationism, nativism, chauvinism, puritanism and religious fanaticism'' in their unfailing drive to ``summon our nasty devils.''

Whence comes this fable? With President Bush increasing his share of the vote among Hispanics, Jews, women (especially married women), Catholics, seniors and even African-Americans, on what does this victory-of-the-homophobic-evangelical rest?

Its origins lie in a single question in the Election Day exit poll. The urban myth grew around the fact that ``moral values'' ranked highest in the answer to Question J: ``Which ONE issue mattered most in deciding how you voted for president?''

It is a thin reed upon which to base a General Theory of the '04 Election. In fact, it is no reed at all. The way the question was set up, moral values was sure to be ranked disproportionately high. Why? Because it was a multiple-choice question and moral values cover a group of issues, while all the other choices were individual issues. Chop up the alternatives finely enough, and moral values is sure to get a bare plurality over the others.

Look at the choices:
-- Education, 4 percent
-- Taxes, 5 percent
-- Health Care, 8 percent
-- Iraq, 15 percent
-- Terrorism, 19 percent
-- Economy and Jobs, 20 percent
-- Moral Values, 22 percent

``Moral values'' encompasses abortion, gay marriage, Hollywood's influence, the general coarsening of the culture, and, for some, the morality of pre-emptive war. The way to logically pit this class of issues against the others would be to pit it against other classes: ``war issues'' or ``foreign policy issues'' (Iraq plus terrorism) and ``economic issues'' (jobs, taxes, health care, etc).

If you pit group against group, moral values comes in dead last: war issues at 34 percent, economic issues variously described at 33 percent, and moral values at 22 percent -- i.e., they are at least a third less salient than the others.

And we know that this is the real ranking. After all, the exit poll is just a single poll. We had dozens of polls in the run-up to the election that showed that the chief concerns were the war on terror, the war in Iraq and the economy.

Ah, yes. But the fallback is then to attribute Bush's victory to the gay marriage referendums that pushed Bush over the top, particularly in Ohio.

This is more nonsense. George Bush increased his vote in 2004 over 2000 by an average of 3.1 percent nationwide. In Ohio the increase was 1 percent -- less than a third of the national average. In the 11 states in which the gay marriage referendums were held, Bush increased his vote by less than he did in the 39 states that did not have the referendum. The great anti-gay surge was pure fiction.

This does not deter the myth of the Bigoted Christian Redneck from dominating the thinking of liberals, and from infecting the blue-state media. They need their moral superiority like oxygen, and cannot have it cut off by mere facts. And so once again they angrily claim the moral high ground, while standing in the ruins of yet another humiliating electoral defeat.

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

Its interesting to note that the anti-gay marriage initiatives may have actually cost repubs votes in the 11 states having referendum if one compares contrasts with the rest of the states.

[Straybow]

Yes, except that the gay marriage bans passed in all of the 11 states. Bush won, what was it now, 9 of those 11 states, with Michigan and Oregon never really being in play?

No, the referendi did not hurt the Republicans at all.

[Ned]

When Democrats start calling Republicans WalMart shoppers, one begins to wonder about whether Democrats really believe that the lower-middle class, the so-called working class, is their constituency.

[Straybow]

You'd think they like WalMart shoppers, since everthing in WalMart comes from China.

[Ned]

Here is Arianna's take on Kerry's defeat: She blames Kerry's focus on domestic issues. She blames this on Clinton and on Cahill, who wanted that focus, on Holbrooke who wanted Kerry to stay close to Bush's Iraq policy and others Clintonistas like Carville. As a result, Kerry's Iraq policy differred with Bush's in minute shades of grey and not the black and white that Arianna and others like Gary Hart wanted and thought would win the election.

http://www.ariannaonline.com/columns/column.php?id=744

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

Originally posted by Straybow
Yes, except that the gay marriage bans passed in all of the 11 states. Bush won, what was it now, 9 of those 11 states, with Michigan and Oregon never really being in play?

No, the referendi did not hurt the Republicans at all.

The pont being according to Krauthammer in those state with refernendum in contrast to 2000 voting he fared worse thatn all other states.

[Straybow]

So? "Fared worse than in other states" = gained less in the margin by which he won in most cases. He still won the states, and gay marriage was rejected 2:1.

That's mandate material.

[GhengisFarb™]

Originally posted by Ned
When Democrats start calling Republicans WalMart shoppers, one begins to wonder about whether Democrats really believe that the lower-middle class, the so-called working class, is their constituency.

Oh they believe it, they're completely off their rocker but they DO believe it.