Predictions bout the great first debate.

[Ramo]

Do tell on the Niger Uranium story (havenot heard thisone yet).

http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2004/09/29/cbs_wmd/index_np.html

Regardless those who are currently watching CBS are by default Kerry-ites as anyone having even a passisng familiarity with Rathergate has left their sinking ship.

Dunno how the composition of the audience has any direct affect on polling numbers. It wasn't an online poll...

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

Ramo,

Can you do me a favor and post the article as quote. I'm not a salon subscriber.

[Ramo]

Disagree with Ramo. Kerry is behind in the polls, so for him a tie is a loss.

The point is, in which direction the numbers will move.

No one expected much out of Kerry (IIRC, in recent poll, 44% expected Bush to win the debates as oppoed to 33% for Kerry). Kerry needed to establish his creds and put Bush on the defensive. And that's exactly what he did.

Precisely the same dynamics are affecting this debate as the first 2000 debate (where a Gore win turned into a Bush win through the expectations game).

[Ramo]

Neither am I. Click the "Free Day Pass" link; there's a short commercial, and then you can read the story.

[Bosh]

I missed the first 15 minutes or so. lI think this one was better than average as these things go.

Aaaw, you missed Bush blatantly dodging the first question.

Partisan rantings aside, nobody got pwn3d (eg., the Poles do not consider themselves under Soviet domination, you're no jack kennedy, etc.).

Right.

Agree with Boshko that the DeGaulle bit (assist to Dean Acheson) clearly illustrated Kerry's point about american prestige in the world.

Right, that was my favorite bit from Kerry's side.

Kerry loses points for not pushing these issues home more effectively.

Yeah, Bush kept on pounding the talking points, Kerry treated it more like a standard debate then a campaign event which hurt him a bit.

Disagree with Ramo. Kerry is behind in the polls, so for him a tie is a loss.

Really? If he's behind on the polls and people think he did the same as Bush then there's a chunk of people who were planning on voting for Bush who thought Kerry did better, that's got to help at least marginally (very very marginally). This is especially the case in a National Security, where Bush has a commanding lead in the polls. Kerry's got to pwn Bush in domestic stuff to have it help him but a tie on National Security stuff helps him a little (and a narrow but definate victory like this one certainly doesn't hurt either).

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

Originally posted by Ramo
Neither am I. Click the "Free Day Pass" link; there's a short commercial, and then you can read the story.

CBS was correct to not run the story, not because of possible ties to bia but because it is #1 an old story. #2 Irrelevant story as the WH did a mea culpa only to find out after the fact that they were right in having the infamous 16 words present in the speech and in the process pwning Joe Wilson.

[Ted Striker]

Originally posted by Adam Smith
I missed the first 15 minutes or so. lI think this one was better than average as these things go. Partisan rantings aside, nobody got pwn3d (eg., the Poles do not consider themselves under Soviet domination, you're no jack kennedy, etc.).

Agree with Boshko that the DeGaulle bit (assist to Dean Acheson) clearly illustrated Kerry's point about american prestige in the world. Also think Kerry helped clarify things greatly by saying the issue was not that Saddam was a threat, but what we DO about that threat. Kerry loses points for not pushing these issues home more effectively. Bush seemed to me to rely too much on the buzzwords of free, democratic, and enemy. But Bush did seem fairly effective in using Kerry's prior positions to throw up obstacles aht Kerry had to work around.

Credit to both candidates for declining the opportunity to throw buckets of dirt at each other over the character question. Maybe there is hope for us yet.

Overall, Bush B-, Kerry B

Disagree with Ramo. Kerry is behind in the polls, so for him a tie is a loss.

I gave Bush a C+, Kerry a B

No pwnage occured.

It would have been nice to see Kerry go for the jugular but he didn't push it home. However Bush has been exposed and this can be taken advantage of.

I agree with Adam Smith that I get tired of hearing abstract concepts about freedom and liberty.

Bush said there were 100,000 trained security forces in Iraq, but in reality this number is 50,000. Major slipup.

The character thing was also cool, although Bush kept using the word "weakness" later, indirectly referring to Kerry.

Kerry's highlight of the night was saying that certainty doesn't matter because you can be both certain AND wrong.

[Moral Hazard]

First We need Ned and ML to straighten us out.

I thought Kerry won. Not outstanding but a win more by default than anything. Kerry may have come off a little full off himself, but he made good points. He repeated most of his messages. So did Bush. Bush had some bad pauses after which his statements were weak. Bush's opening weren't really solid. I was wavering before but now I'm in the Kerry camp (weakly). Could lose me though with his domestic one. I was focusing more on Kerry since I've decided to not to vote Bush.

I have to agree with Adam Smith about the win/tie thing. Kerry needs a win more. Even if this is Bush's strength. But I think he got that win. Not strong but a win.

EDited

[Imran Siddiqui]

I think Kerry won this debate, especially on the visual side. Bush stammed to a number of questions. And he didn't learn ANYTHING from the 2000 debates because when Kerry was speaking, Bush smirked and looked unpresidential.

[Ramo]

CBS was correct to not run the story, not because of possible ties to bia but because it is #1 an old story. #2 Irrelevant story as the WH did a mea culpa only to find out after the fact that they were right in having the infamous 16 words present in the speech and in the process pwning Joe Wilson.

The point's that there's an addition to the story that'd hurt Bush. And CBS is refusing to report it.

[Ted Striker]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
I think Kerry won this debate, especially on the visual side. Bush stammed to a number of questions. And he didn't learn ANYTHING from the 2000 debates because when Kerry was speaking, Bush smirked and looked unpresidential.

There were alot of shots of him looking pissed off while Kerry was talking.

[Ramo]

Latest polls on who won the debate:

CBS ABC CNN ARG
Kerry 44 45 53 51
Bush 26 36 37 41
Unsure 30 17 10 8

[Bosh]

Bush said there were 100,000 trained security forces in Iraq, but in reality this number is 50,000. Major slipup.

Really? Didn't know that. And Bush kept on using the 100k number over and over again so it wasn't just a slip up.

There were alot of shots of him looking pissed off while Kerry was talking.

And none of Kerry looking pissed when Bush was talking.

[Drake Tungsten]

OMG! Kerry was one of the first senators to visit a Nazi concentration camp!!!

Well, let me just say quickly that I've had an extraordinary experience of watching up close and personal that transition in Russia, because I was there right after the transformation. And I was probably one of the first senators, along with Senator Bob Smith of New Hampshire, a former senator, go down into the KGB underneath Treblinka Square and see reams of files with names in them.

http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20040930/NEWS09/40930003

In answer to a question from Lehrer (in tonight's debate) Kerry - as if to PROVE his LONGTIME foreign policy experience, and his superior foreign policy knowledge - recounted how he had (with former Senator Smith (R-NH)) gone down into the bowels of the former KGB under TREBLINKA SQUARE.

ONE PROBLEM: Treblinka was the name of a NAZI EXTERMINATION CAMP.

The KGB was on Lubyankaya Square.

http://astuteblogger.blogspot.com/2004/09/treblinka-square.html

[Moral Hazard]

I wonder if it will cost him. Other **** never hit Bush hard, but we always expected that from Bush.