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I don't see a manned private space station as a reality in 2010.
I would like to be proved wrong.
I would like to be proved wrong.
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One day Canada will rule the world, and then we'll all be sorry. -
Why don't you see it?I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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A prime concern is that there is a strong but unlikely chance of some kind of calamity. A serious accident or fatality of some kind that will set projects back a couple of years. When Challenger and Columbia went up in smoke they caused serious delays to the shuttle programmes. Even if practical safety fears aren't increased by such an accident there may be a reduction in investment by those who get scared off by the huge losses that could result - insurance companies amongst others may have second thoughts.
The Xprize has been around for 6+ years (not certain but certainly since '98) and is about to expire in December, leading to a sense of urgency amongst competitors to acheive success by then. This could be dangerous and lead to attempts made at the expense of proper safety testing. The opposite may be true - a deadline may cause competitors to pull out all the stops. I have doubts is all.
If all things go right 2010 is acheivable, if anything goes wrong it won't happen by then.One day Canada will rule the world, and then we'll all be sorry.Comment
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I don't know if you have seen this or not, but Richard Branson wants to sell 2 hour rides in space for $200,000.“It is no use trying to 'see through' first principles. If you see through everything, then everything is transparent. But a wholly transparent world is an invisible world. To 'see through' all things is the same as not to see.”
― C.S. Lewis, The Abolition of ManComment
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He's been wanting to sell rides and hotel stays in space for a decade or more.One day Canada will rule the world, and then we'll all be sorry.Comment
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Appears he's adding meat to the bones.
One day Canada will rule the world, and then we'll all be sorry.Comment
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I don't get it. What's a "strong but unlikely" chance of catastrophe? Sounds like nonsense to me. If catastophe is unlikely, then why aren't you able to see a private station by 2010?I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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By "strong but unlikely" I mean that the chances of a major incident are not negligible but still less than 50%. I see the chances of some other kinds of significant delaying problems as higher than 50%.Originally posted by DanS
I don't get it. What's a "strong but unlikely" chance of catastrophe? If catastophe is unlikely, then why aren't you able to see a private station by 2010?One day Canada will rule the world, and then we'll all be sorry.Comment
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Seems like you have a pretty good handle on what these failure percentages are. Care to share?I see the chances of some other kinds of significant delaying problems as higher than 50%.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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Failure rates of presnet launches ranges from 2% to 25%. The Chinese launches are running at a rate of 1 in 6 or there abouts, the US attempts in the 60's ran at about 1 in 5 or so. I don't see why private programmes will not suffer similar rates of failure and setback.
In 5 attempts I would expect at least each competitor to have a 50% chance of a serious set-back of some kind.Last edited by Dauphin; September 28, 2004, 13:28.One day Canada will rule the world, and then we'll all be sorry.Comment
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Anything not looking like this is NOT a space station
Attached FilesWithin weeks they'll be re-opening the shipyards
And notifying the next of kin
Once again...Comment
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Good for the pioneers. It's a pity they're still deluding themselves that there's money to be made in space, but, hey, I suppose the belief keeps them going.Comment
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If you plan on some unmanned launch vehicle failure by preparing redundant modules, as Bigelow is doing, then these setbacks should be negligible. A half year. 3/4 of a year tops.
With regard to the chance of individual launch failure, the Dnepr, on which Bigelow will fly most of his test articles, currently has a first level Bayesian estimate chance of failure of 16.7% for the next launch -- it hasn't failed yet in 4 launches, but doesn't have the track record for a lower demonstrated chance of failure. However, consider that as the test program goes on, the chance of individual failure falls rapidly. And again, an individual launch failure does not automatically mean that the program is delayed.
For crewing the station, we don't have to worry about that until 2010. But the Russians have proven that humans can be launched safely using expendable rockets. In a pinch, the Russians would happily launch a crew of 3 for $60 million or whatever.
For cargo, the rate of launch failure shouldn't impact the endeavor's schedule.Last edited by DanS; September 28, 2004, 14:23.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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As I said, another dotcom.Originally posted by DanS
These aren't pipedreams. You can see the test articles pictured above. The endeavors may in the end be unsuccessful (as any achievement worth the effort and time is inerently risky), but the programs are fully-funded by private individuals and entities and we're seeing hardware fabricated and flown.
What are you going to use as replacements?Originally posted by DanS
But in any event, I think that ISS and Space Shuttle should be canceled based on the programs' lack of merit, not because of what is happening in the private sector.(\__/) 07/07/1937 - Never forget
(='.'=) "Claims demand evidence; extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence." -- Carl Sagan
(")_(") "Starting the fire from within."Comment
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Why on Earth would you replace these white elephants?What are you going to use as replacements?
All individual startups are risky. It doesn't strike me that these are particularly "dotcom"-like.As I said, another dotcom.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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