Move over NASA -- US private manned space station by 2010

[DanS]

Bigelow Aerospace of Las Vegas is set to launch the first privately owned and operated manned space station by 2010 (the first unmanned test subscale module will go up in 2005). Each inflatable space station module (fabric shell) has 2.75x the volume of an international space station module (aluminum shell), and by 2011 or so the station will have more volume than the International Space Station and will be doing more science. Attached is a picture of one of the modules that they have built in their Las Vegas factory -- you can see how huge these things are.

Bigelow Aerospace has a good chance of doing what they say they are going to do. The person who is financing this venture, Robert Bigelow, is looking back on a very sizable fortune and is funding the project to the tune of about $500 million.

Sweet!

http://www.spaceflightnow.com/news/n0409/27bigelow/

[pchang]

It seems to me that it would take about 5 times $500 million once operational costs are factored in.

[DanS]

It is tough to know what a reasonable operations cost baseline is for private enterprise, considering that NASA and RSA are the only ones to have done space stations in the past.

[GePap]

"Trailer homes in SPACE!"

[GePap]

Originally posted by DanS
It is tough to know what a reasonable operations cost baseline is for private enterprise, considering that NASA and RSA are the only ones to have done space stations in the past.

Ok, so lets see- how exponential are the insurance costs? And given that they would not be using government and NASA safety standards, which scientific institutions would take the risk?

[our_man]

Woah! 2.75 times as large as an ISS module! The external design sounds fairly robust too; I was afraid that an inflatable design wouldn't be able to withstand the impact of space debris.

It's a pity the US government doesn't invest much in the space program anymore; it's been shown time and time again that despite the initial investment, the spin-offs from space technology more than pay for themselves... At least the private sector aren't oblivious in seeing that there's a lot of money to be made!

I'll hold my breath for the moment though. I've been disappointed in the past when projects such as this have failed to live up to their expectations.

[DanS]

To me it's not about how much NASA spends. They throw away billions every year (or rather, the politicians who direct the spending throw away the money). NASA has become much less compelling every year since Apollo. Maybe they're victims of their own success.

Private space is trying things in new, much less costly ways. The US is rapidly reaching a critical mass of private space ventures. Lots of people with lots of money, experience and brains doing things smartly. It's fun to watch, even if we know that most of the ventures will fail.

[GePap]

Anyone care to comment on the liability questions? And what about the sending of human beings into Space? What space vehicle would dock with this thing? Launching from?

And the countless other legal, insurance, health, environmental and other questions?

[DanS]

With regard to liability, who knows? They could probably self-insure on the startup articles.

With regard to legal, health, environmental and other questions, I guess they must be figuring it all out (IANAL and am not being paid by Apolyton for a 150 point plan to address all this crap ).

[Arrian]

IIRC, this type of thing is something you would have to convince a specialty insurer to underwrite (Lloyds?). It would most likely be HUGELY expensive, at least at first. The main problem is that in this business, there isn't really an equivalent to a slip & fall. If something goes wrong, odds are it's a catastrophic loss.

-Arrian

[GePap]

These guys do not seem like they have yet developed a way to send human beings into orbit yet- certainly not one that can take and bring humans back and then dock with this thing. That seems to me the bggest problem with this plan, besides all the regulations and insurance costs to be met.

[DanS]

They are not proposing that they develop a way to get cargo and humans to and from the space station. Rather, they will buy those services. Bigelow will be giving away a $50 million "America's Space Prize" to the private company that can offer a ride for 5 to 7 astronauts to the stations.

The one private US manned rocketry project that has been announced is SpaceX's Falcon V, an unmanned version of which will launch in 2005 (and will carry Bigelow's first test subscale module). SpaceX is likely to bid on resupplying and recrewing ISS, as NASA has requested information about recently.

If push comes to shove, perhaps the RSA will handle station recrewing, while the Dnepr/Falcon V will handle station resupply, and Delta IV/Atlas V/Proton will handle module launch. The only truly privately developed launcher among the bunch is the Falcon V, which is adding to the "critical mass" I talked about above, but that and the Dnepr are the cheapest.

[our_man]

To me it's not about how much NASA spends. They throw away billions every year (or rather, the politicians who direct the spending throw away the money).

Very true. When I was at the KSC one word I heard a lot was 'cancelled'. They have all these different projects running and a lot of them aren't being completed because of lack of funding. What's popular with one administration might not be popular with the next (where will Bush's Mars vision be if Kerry wins?).

They could really do with better resource management; focus on a specific goal. At the moment they're trying to do to many things at once.

[DanS]

I'm thinking more about the congressmen who support or oppose NASA programs based on how many jobs it will generate or save in their congressional districts or states. It gives NASA feet of concrete and makes science only a peripheral goal.

I would love to hear the word "canceled", "ISS" and "Space Shuttle" all in the same sentence.

[mrmitchell]

Maybe they're victims of their own success.

NASA brought man to the moon. Unless you're some kind of crackpot, this is still the single biggest human achievement in recorded history.

On the other hand, politicians do bog down NASA. What needs to be done in my opinion is hand them a blank check and a due date for reaching Mars. It would be extremely embarassing if some Eurocoms or Chinese beat us off our planet.

But who's going to do something like that? What, is Bush going to waltz up to Congress tomorrow and ask for unlimited funding for what is essentially flexing our muscles and showing everyone else how big a d!ck the USA has?