The Pentagon Papers, Iraq Edition

[Ted Striker]

Originally posted by Agathon


You forget rule #1 - calculate the risks involved with either option. Leaving him be was the lesser risk as people argued at the time and as has now proved to be the case.

And that's where there great Weapons of Mass Destruction lie came in.

[Ramo]

I doubt there are many nationalists waging this insurrection. It's more the people who had power under Saddam

No, not really. Where the Arab Nationalist insurrection is strongest, in places like Fallujah, the insurrection has beem divorced from Saddam's former government for a while. And the Sadrists (who could be considered Iraqi Nationalists) have absolutely nothing to do with the former government (besides being a target of their repression).

[Berzerker]

Out of a country of 25 million, 15,000 is not much when gauging public opinion. Why do you think 15,000 constitutes more than a very small minority? In any war of liberation, and this qualifies, the first resistance (if any) comes from the elite who were in power. Obviously Saddam and his cronies were a minority, hence there fear of sharing or relinquishing power via democracy. The danger comes when the nationalists who wanted or needed help getting rid of Saddam start thinking their new government is an antagonistic puppet of the US. That's when we'll see nationalists who oppose each other ally to get rid of the occupier and that's when we are in trouble... The Kurds are on our side and most of the Shi'ites are either on our side or just waiting for the smoke to clear. Most of the trouble is coming from the Sunni triangle and Saddam's tribal associations. Actually, I'd expect far more than 15,000 given the population size if most Iraqis were really angry with us...

[Berzerker]

No. It's all of them, and they are ganging up because they hate the US more than each other. I saw a couple of ex-military academics state this as fact last week, and it has been in the press for some time.

Sure, some people hate us more than they hate each other, but the numbers posted by chegitz show that the insurrectionists are relatively small in number.

No, not really. Where the Arab Nationalist insurrection is strongest, in places like Fallujah, the insurrection has beem divorced from Saddam's former government for a while. And the Sadrists (who could be considered Iraqi Nationalists) have absolutely nothing to do with the former government (besides being a target of their repression).

And Sadr was reigned in by... Sistani...certainly a nationalist (most people are nationalists). The constant attacks are coming from the Sunnis who were in control under Saddam, not nationalists in the broad sense of the term. Their goal is not nationalism, it's avoiding vengeful opponents they tormented when Saddam was in power. If the Iraqis really opposed the US, the insurrectionists would cut across religious and tribal boundaries and they'd number in the hundreds of thousands or millions... I'm not saying that can't become the reality, but I believe most Iraqis want to give us the chance to help get them back on track.

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by Berzerker
Out of a country of 25 million, 15,000 is not much when gauging public opinion. Why do you think 15,000 constitutes more than a very small minority?

It constitutes a growth in the resistence of 300%, not including those killed. IIRC, that's another 11,000, which would actually mean a 520% growth if included.

[Berzerker]

Still small numbers compared to the population size. If I have a penny and you give me 2 more, that's a %200 increase but it doesn't mean much of anything. I figure there are around 7 million Sunnis and maybe 1 million who had some special attachment to the previous power structure. So the insurrectionists have maybe a little more than %1 of their own faction...

The main reason so many people are skeptical is because we were led to believe this would be easy. Without that false level of comfort, 15,000 out of 25 million hardly seems significant...

[chequita guevara]

Did you even read the OP? You know, about the Pentagon being pessamistic.

[Ramo]

And Sadr was reigned in by... Sistani...certainly a nationalist (most people are nationalists).

Actually Sadr (and the Sadrists) is much more of an (Iraqi) nationalist than Sistani. That's partially why they're so opposed to Sistani - he's of Iranian descent. Sistani has much more of an internationalist orientation.

The constant attacks are coming from the Sunnis who were in control under Saddam, not nationalists in the broad sense of the term. Their goal is not nationalism, it's avoiding vengeful opponents they tormented when Saddam was in power. If the Iraqis really opposed the US, the insurrectionists would cut across religious and tribal boundaries and they'd number in the hundreds of thousands or millions... I'm not saying that can't become the reality, but I believe most Iraqis want to give us the chance to help get them back on track.

The Ba'athists are Arab Nationalists. Most Sunnis are also Arab Nationalists. And as I said, the core of the Arab Nationalist insurgency hasn't had much to do with Saddam's gov't. The Fallujah insurgents are certainly not the same thing as the Tikriti Clan.

The insurrection does cut across the religious and tribal lines (specifically, there are two insurrections, one Sunni and on Shia and both cut across tribal lines). As for the number of insurrectionists, it's no doubt huge. Keep in mind that there are cities where essentially the US or Allawi gov't can't operate.

What most Iraqis believe is that we've totally ****ed up their country, and that we ought to organize elections and get the hell out right now.

[Berzerker]

I read it, and? Perhaps I should restate what I said to motivate you, Ramo, and Aggie to comment:

"I doubt there are many nationalists waging this insurrection. It's more the people who had power under Saddam and who fear a transfer of power to potential and actual enemies within the country."

All 3 of you dispute this but based on what? Five thousand becoming 15,000? C'mon... That ain't a popular uprising, it's a relative few intent on staying alive because of what they were doing to other people under Saddam has created many enemies... If this was a nationalist uprising, why do we see the violence occuring mainly in the Sunni triangle and not the more populous Shia and Kurdish areas? Because 1) this is not about nationalism...yet... and 2) because the vast majority of nationalists are either undecided or on our side based on the expectation we are there to liberate them... The trick is getting Iraq back on it's feet without ruining their expectations of "freedom" or at least self-determination...

[chequita guevara]

You think wars of liberation start as explosions, the a general uprising? It's true, out of 25 mil, 15K aren't necessarily significant. Except that they've had phenomenal growth in the last ten months. This growth shows no sign of slowing down.

It is the Pentagon that has said this is becomming a nationalist uprising.

[Ted Striker]

I trust Senator Lugar's judgement and also his integrity.

He is probably the greatest foreign policy scholar of our time.

What is so odd about this is that he has been very vocal during most of his career, but we haven't heard a peep from him on Iraq until today.

This is the first time I have heard him since I can remember. Very odd, but I doubt it was a coincidence.

[Ramo]

Berz, if it were only 15,000 who oppose us militantly, they wouldn't be able to take control of major population centers. Fallujah and Sadr City (the latter is Shia BTW) would be under our control. Further, the vast majority of Iraqis think we've totally screwed up, and want us out and an elected Iraqi gov't in ASAP (like Sistani). That doesn't mean these people support the insurrection, which is an important distinction.

And you're misunderstanding a key point. That the insurrections are run by nationalists of varying sorts does not mean that the insurrection is about promoting the Iraqi nation. Iraqi nationalism is really prominent only among the Shia, and for their militants (the Sadrists) other priorities eclipse it.

[Berzerker]

Ramo -

Actually Sadr (and the Sadrists) is much more of an (Iraqi) nationalist than Sistani. That's partially why they're so opposed to Sistani - he's of Iranian descent. Sistani has much more of an internationalist orientation.

And yet Sistani lives in a country with a Shia majority that has closer connections to Iran than either Saddam or Saudi Arabia, hence his greater weight. I don't know how nationalistic either man is, both are to varying degrees (I didn't say Sistani was more nationalistic). But I do know, and even chegitz supported my conclusion with those numbers, that the Iraqis fighting us are small in number compared to the population size and not fighting because of nationalism. They are fighting to prevent a political takeover by the Shia/Kurd majority because they fear vengeful victims from the Saddam era.

[Ramo]

And yet Sistani lives in a country with a Shia majority that has closer connections to Iran than either Saddam or Saudi Arabia, hence his greater weight.

I don't know what you're trying to say here...

I don't know how nationalistic either man is, both are to varying degrees (I didn't say Sistani was more nationalistic).

Sadr is much more the nationalist.

But I do know, and even chegitz supported my conclusion with those numbers, that the Iraqis fighting us are small in number compared to the population size

Sure, but if you include their sympathizers the number is much, much larger. As I said, they control major cities.

[q]They are fighting to prevent a political takeover by the Shia/Kurd majority because they fear vengeful victims from the Saddam era.

I never said that that that wasn't a reason why they're fighting. However the Sunni insurgents are by and large Arab Nationalists. That's their ideology. So it's an element in their resistance.

[Berzerker]

chegitz -

You think wars of liberation start as explosions, the a general uprising? It's true, out of 25 mil, 15K aren't necessarily significant. Except that they've had phenomenal growth in the last ten months. This growth shows no sign of slowing down.

I've already said it can get worse. But we haven't reached the critical point either and your numbers handily prove it. What is a sign of slowing down? Increasing attacks were expected as it became clear to the insurgents we weren't running this time and an Iraqi government was going to be built and they were going to lose some power to the other factions in the country, antagonistic factions.

It is the Pentagon that has said this is becomming a nationalist uprising.

Where? And I'll believe that when I see Kurds and Shi'ites join in, they are well ahead of the Sunni triangle wrt rebuilding after Saddam... The NIE only says a worst case scenario is civil war. Well, the damn country wouldn't even exist if not for the Brits so divide it up among the 3 factions. Hell, there could be 2 civil wars - among the Sunnis and then with the majority. But I don't think the latter will happen, we're helping the Sunnis who want to rebuild and live by helping to fight their Sunni opponents - and there ain't many of them. The key to this is the Iraqi people taking real control asap...

Ramo -

The Ba'athists are Arab Nationalists.

When they are in control, how is that different from everyone else? People generally discriminate based on distance, the greater the distance, the more blatant the discrimination. So what is a nationalist? Someone who discriminates based on distance - the greater distance being that of the foreigner compared to the countryman. Me, my family, my friends, my neighborhood and town, my state, my country...foreigners come last.

Most Sunnis are also Arab Nationalists. And as I said, the core of the Arab Nationalist insurgency hasn't had much to do with Saddam's gov't. The Fallujah insurgents are certainly not the same thing as the Tikriti Clan.

Do you mean "hadn't much to do with Saddam's gov't"?
The Sunnis were his base of support, obviously not all Sunnis were equally supportive because they're a product of tribalism too which goes back to the distance and discrimination thing...

The insurrection does cut across the religious and tribal lines (specifically, there are two insurrections, one Sunni and on Shia and both cut across tribal lines).

The Shia problem is dissipating because of Sistani, it's escalating among the Sunnis for stated reasons.

As for the number of insurrectionists, it's no doubt huge. Keep in mind that there are cities where essentially the US or Allawi gov't can't operate.

And most of the people in those cities don't want to be involved, just a hunch... But what are they going to do, vote out the insurrectionists? A gang moves in and the locals no longer have much of a say.

What most Iraqis believe is that we've totally ****ed up their country, and that we ought to organize elections and get the hell out right now.

Thanks for agreeing, but their country was already ****ed up, had been ever since it was created. Thank the Brits for that