The tactics of Kerry-bashing and Savior from Terrorism worked: Bush has 11 point lead

[Vlad Antlerkov]

The Newsweek poll shows basically the same split as the Time poll.

A few internals re the interviewees:

374 Republicans (plus or minus 6)
303 Democrats (plus or minus 6)
300 Independents (plus or minus 6)

541 Bush/Cheney supporters (plus or minus 5)
403 Kerry/Edward supporters (plus or minus 6)

And gimme my swing state polls damnit!

Edit: Newsweek poll also pushed leaners.

[Vlad Antlerkov]

Rasmussen tracking poll has the race as Bush 49, Kerry 45. Not ARG/Zogby territory, not Time/Newsweek territory either.

Edit: Meta-analysis of the various state polls, for those of you into this sort of thing.

[Kuciwalker]

Originally posted by Jaguar
Are you completely insane? Are you completely unaware of what's going on in the world? Or are you just so delusional that you no longer have any grip on reality? Have your eyes failed you, or have you failed your eyes?

Reagan won 49 states in his re-election bid. Bush would be lucky to win 39, and I wouldn't be surprised if he won by a paper-thin EC margin of less than 20 votes. To win as many states as Reagan did, he'll have to pick up states like Connecticut, California, Maryland, Delaware, and New York. And Bush is no Ronald Reagan.

You can say that again. And a few more time. Also, you should send him spam mail with that in it.

Reagan

Bush

[Kuciwalker]

Originally posted by Jaguar
Just googled it and when I came back you had already posted. Yikes.

I beat the leader of the free world by more than 150 points on the SAT. I'm not sure whether that's or . That's fairly scary.

But it gets worse. That score is from when I took the SAT at the age of 13.

200

Same age

[Jaguar]

I really decided to rant at him.

[Edan]

Originally posted by Vlad Antlerkov
The Newsweek poll shows basically the same split as the Time poll.

A few internals re the interviewees:



And gimme my swing state polls damnit!

Edit: Newsweek poll also pushed leaners.

The newsweek polls does not appear to do any weighting. When I did weighting, I got Bush 49%, Kerry 43%.

This blog does simmilar weighting and gets 51% - 46%.

Also, the Margin or Error is 4%, instead of the usual 3% for random sampling of ~1000.

I don't put much faith into this poll.

[The Mad Monk]

From the Zogby site:

Released: September 03, 2004
John Zogby, the first to predict “The race is Kerry’s to lose,” tells Wall $treet Week with FORTUNE viewers that investors are moving in Bush”s direction to Kerry’s peril.



Zogby identifies "make or break" battleground constituencies...

As Republican delegates say goodbye to the glitter and fanfare of Madison Square Garden, self-identified investor voters say they now favor President Bush over John Kerry by an eleven point spread (49% vs. 38%) according to a Zogby/Wall $treet Week with FORTUNE poll conducted on August 30th through September 2nd.

In tonight’s post RNC Convention episode of PBS’s Wall $treet Week with FORTUNE, Zogby will be interviewed by Karen Gibbs, W$WwF co-anchor, where he will announce that President Bush now has the advantage of a double-digit lead among self-identified Investor Class voters. Of those voters who identify themselves as owning stock, 54% say they would vote for Bush compared to 34% for Kerry’s 20 point difference.

In analyzing the poll data, Zogby will probe the “make or break” role of two key groups, the Investor Class, and the Undecideds, both of whom are increasing in numbers and potential impact as Campaign 2004 speeds toward election day.

Both the Investor Class and the Undecideds may prove to be battleground constituencies for Kerry. The poll indicated that Kerry’s support fell as the number of undecided voters rose, suggesting that by [August 30th] some of the Senators supporters may have lost confidence in him and joined the ranks of the undecided.

Zogby International conducted interviews of 1,001 likely voters chosen at random nationwide. Of these likely voters, 307 described themselves as “members of the investor class” All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from August 30th through September 2nd. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, and gender to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups. Numbers have been rounded to the nearest percent and might not total 100.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=858

[Atahualpa]

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten
Judging by test scores, Bush is smarter than the vast majority of the population

[DinoDoc]

I'm hoping for an electoral tie. That'd be amusing.

[Jaguar]

Originally posted by Atahualpa

Judging by test scores, Bush is smarter than the vast majority of the population

That's not surprising. The vast majority of the population are idiots.

[Ned]

Originally posted by Jaguar

That's not surprising. The vast majority of the population are idiots.

A full explanation as to why the average Democrat thinks they are smarter than average.

[Vlad Antlerkov]

Info on both campaign's internal polls:

Originally posted byy Josh Marshall

A note on polls: as of the day after the convention I'm told by what I believe to be reliable sources that the internal polls of both campaigns had President Bush up roughly four points on John Kerry.

Getting straight-up info on what each campaigns' own polls are telling them is inherently difficult. And I want to make clear that I have not seen the data with my own eyes. But I have heard this from sources (for each side) which I believe to be reliable. And I'm passing the information on on that caveat-ed basis.

[Drake Tungsten]

The Gallup poll is finally out. Bush leads by 7 points...

Bush leads Kerry by 7 points
By Susan Page, USA TODAY

WASHINGTON EPresident Bush widened his lead over John Kerry after a combative Republican National Convention deepened questions about the Democratic candidate's leadership, especially on terrorism. (Related link: Poll results)
As the campaign enters its last eight weeks, a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll taken Friday through Sunday shows Bush at 52%, Kerry at 45% and independent candidate Ralph Nader at 1% among likely voters. Before the convention, Bush led Kerry by 2 percentage points.

Among registered voters, Bush was at 48%, Kerry at 46% and Nader at 4%.

Bush's lead remains within the survey's error margin. By historical standards, the race remains too close to call.

But the New York convention has reshaped views of the political landscape and the candidates in ways helpful to the GOP. Views of whether Bush has the personality and leadership qualities to be president improved by 6 points; those of Kerry declined by 14 points.

And the importance of terrorism Ethe major issue on which Bush has an advantage Esurged. Voters now say terrorism is as important as the economy, and more important than the war in Iraq, in determining their vote. The president is preferred by 27 points over his challenger in handling terrorism, up from a 10-point edge last month. By 2-to-1, those surveyed say the chances of a terrorist attack against the USA would be less if Bush rather than Kerry were elected.

Bush strategist Matthew Dowd predicts the race will tighten again but says Bush is further ahead than the campaign expected. With the Democratic convention over, "John Kerry has lost any ability to have any one-way conversation" with voters, he says.

Mark Mellman, Kerry's pollster, says Kerry is "making progress every single day" in closing the gap with Bush. "The reality is that this was a convention filled with ugly and inaccurate speeches, and no doubt as those speeches are being heard they make some impression," he says. "Equally there's no doubt they'll fade pretty quickly."

The lessons of presidential races since World War II indicate either candidate could prevail in November.

Since World War II, three contests have been within the margin of error among registered voters at Labor Day. In those races, the leading candidate won in 1980; the trailing candidate won in 1960 and 2000.

Still, Bush received a modest bounce from his party's convention, while Kerry's standing sagged in the USA TODAY poll after the Democratic convention. The president is driving both sides of the ballot: eight of 10 of his supporters say they are voting for Bush; half of Kerry voters say they are voting against Bush.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/president/2004-09-06-poll_x.htm

Let the desperate whining and infighting in the Democratic Party continue!

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by DinoDoc
I'm hoping for an electoral tie. That'd be amusing.

It's not technically possible. There are an odd number of electors. Someone will have one more than the other, unless a third party wins somewhere.

[Ned]

I was watching CNN earlier. Their pollster analyzed the boost encumbants received from their convention on the average. It appeared that the average was 6 points with the lowest among the last 11 or so imcumbants being 3. Using slight of hand, CNN analyist said that Bush received only a 2 point bounce, the lowest in recorded history! He got there by showing that Bush's numbers went up from 50 to 52% -- even while totally ignoring Kerry's numbers, which fell from 47% to 45%!

It would be interesting to know whether the prior incumbant boost numbers ingnored the spread and focused solely on the incumbant's own numbers. But any fair observer would have to conclude that there is something very peculiar about the CNN analysis.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/09/06/presidential.poll/index.html