Muqtada al-Sadr

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Ramo
Can you substantiate that?

For instance, there was a pro-Sadr march in Basra on the 19th:

http://news.scotsman.com/international.cfm?id=933092004

Yesterday¡¯s attack occurred just before thousands of Sadr¡¯s supporters marched through the streets of Basra to protest against the United States¡¯ assault on Najaf.

Describing the protest, Sqdn Ldr Wilson said: "It was quite low key in fact. We believe there were about 3,000 people there. They demonstrated in a well-ordered manner and they dispersed around about midday, local time."

Unfortunately i cant find the link. Of course the assertion that there are folks in Basra who are hostile to Sadr is NOT contradicted by his having supporters in Basra. I dont expect ANY Iraqi city to be unanimous. I have reports of people in Fallujah turning against the insurgents and I do have a link, if youd like - its to an email from a USMC officer.

[Ramo]

Well, there've been fairly consistently pro-Sadr demonstrations and there's been a pretty significant (non-imported) Mahdi Army presence there. I'm not sure what would convince you that Sadr has a lot of support in the slums of Basra.

I'm curious, though, what exactly was the substance of this source that you're referring to?

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Ramo
Well, there've been fairly consistently pro-Sadr demonstrations and there's been a pretty significant (non-imported) Mahdi Army presence there. I'm not sure what would convince you that Sadr has a lot of support in the slums of Basra.

I'm curious, though, what exactly was the substance of this source that you're referring to?

Daily Telegraph (I know, i know)

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British military limits patrols in Basra amid violence
By Thomas Harding
LONDON DAILY TELEGRAPH
Published August 30, 2004

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BASRA, Iraq -- After three deaths in as many weeks, the British army has stopped patrolling the streets of Basra despite pleas from residents to take on the Iraqi insurgents.
With troops now moving only in armored vehicles on patrols not more than 100 yards from base, forces loyal to rebel cleric Muqtada al-Sadr have stepped into the vacuum, roaming the streets with rocket-propelled grenades and AK-47s.
Vital reconstruction has been halted, and citizens are suffering deprivations daily.
But the military insists that its strategy of waiting out daily bombardments by Sheik al-Sadr's Mahdi's Army is preferable to attacking the militia, which they say would lead to an escalation of violence and civilian deaths.
Instead, they have thrown up a ring of steel around Basra with tanks guarding almost every bridge, watching for an estimated 600 insurgents who are expected to return from Najaf, where they left the Imam Ali shrine Friday.
The British strategy has not gone down well with residents, who are subjected to curfews, dwindling food and water supplies, scant basic amenities and daily intimidation from the militiamen.
Sheik al-Sadr does not have widespread support in Basra, but he has attracted a significant number of impoverished religious fanatics and mercenaries. The local police are inadequately armed to confront the insurgents without British support.
"These last three weeks have been very difficult for us," said a 26-year-old teacher who identified himself only as Arrif. "It is not safe to go out on the street because there are bombs and shootings. We are afraid the situation will escalate and that this will affect the economy because people cannot go to work.
"The majority of Basra people want the [British] army to enter the city."
Others agreed.
"People in Basra blame the British forces for this situation. They want them to deploy outside their barracks, because this would get rid of the Mahdi militia," said student Wa'il, 24.
"Of course, people will be killed, but we will accept casualties if the British deploy. We need your help now to prevent these bad things."
With special forces operating in the city, the British army has gathered enough intelligence on the key leaders of the estimated 400 insurgents to "take them out if we want to," according to military sources who said any decision to retake Basra by force must come from the politicians in London.
"I can understand what the Iraqis are saying, but confronting violence with violence is not going to work," said Maj. Ian Clooney, a British military spokesman in Basra.
There are frequent gunbattles between the British and insurgents, who sustained losses of about 400 in the past four months.
"If our soldiers become a target, they will fire back and take them out," Maj. Clooney said. "We don't make a big song and dance about casualties we have inflicted on them, but [rocket-propelled grenade] operators, gunmen and mortar teams are being killed."
The area around Basra remains quiet, but there are still attacks on bases. British bases have suffered more than 1,000 bombardments.
The Royal Marines of 40 Commando, who do not have armored vehicles and therefore have been consigned mainly to convoy escort duty, have made impressive inroads in befriending locals and carrying out patrols in the desert.
Although several pipelines were blown up over the weekend, the Royal Welch Fusiliers have been able to ward off many attacks on the vital conduits that pump oil to tankers in the Gulf.

[Ned]

Arggghhhh! The Brits have become appeasers!

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Ned
Arggghhhh! The Brits have become appeasers!

"If our soldiers become a target, they will fire back and take them out," Maj. Clooney said. "We don't make a big song and dance about casualties we have inflicted on them, but [rocket-propelled grenade] operators, gunmen and mortar teams are being killed."

[Ramo]

They quote a student, probably a middle or upper class person, so not very representative. So, a plea, not "pleas."

The rest of the claims go unattributed (there's the teacher - educated and probably reasonably well off - again, not Sadr's constitutency, but he doesn't say that he necessarily opposes Sadr, just that the insurgeny isn't very confortable - edit: nevermind about that read the story too quickly, but nonetheless the point remains thaht this ain't Sadr's constituency either).

Of course, it's also the Telegraph, and they're not exactly the paragon of journalism.

[Ramo]

Anyways, I don't think this student or teacher, who are likely are not representative of the poor that Sadr would attract, trump the 3,000 protestors.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Ramo
They quote a student, probably a middle or upper class person, so not very representative. So, a plea, not "pleas."

The rest of the claims go unattributed (there's the teacher - educated and probably reasonably well off - again, not Sadr's constitutency, but he doesn't say that he necessarily opposes Sadr, just that the insurgeny isn't very confortable).

Of course, it's also the Telegraph, and they're not exactly the paragon of journalism.

But they also quote a Brit officer, defending a policy that is implicitly under attack - surely if this was just the DT hyping a couple of dug up quotes, he wouldnt say this
'"I can understand what the Iraqis are saying, but confronting violence with violence is not going to work," said Maj. Ian Clooney, a British military spokesman in Basra. "'

I understand what youre saying about the class differences. I certainly realize Sadr has support among the working class in the southern cities, although ive also seen strong hints that its not healthy to voice opposition to Sadr in many of the places where the Mahdi army is active. I dont think we'll be able to judge his support for sure till theres an election.

[Ramo]

The middle and upper classes pretty much universally oppose Sadr. I don't see why he wouldn't respond to thier criticisms (who control the local gov't of Basra), but for some reason would for the slum lobby.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Ramo
The middle and upper classes pretty much universally oppose Sadr. I don't see why he wouldn't respond to thier criticisms (who control the local gov't of Basra), but for some reason would for the slum lobby.

I see why he would respond to the universal appeal of the middle and upper classes. I thought you were saying that the quoted individuals represented only themselves, not the middle and upper classes of Basra.
I still doubt that the slums are equally unanimous in support of Sadr.

Here, btw, is the link to the USMC officer at Fallujah.

http://www.thegreenside.com/story.asp?ContentID=9990

[Ramo]

I see why he would respond to the universal appeal of the middle and upper classes.

I didn't say that the appeal was universal.

I thought you were saying that the quoted individuals represented only themselves, not the middle and upper classes of Basra.

I only said that the journalism was shoddy, and that the Telegraph writer doesn't attribute who he means by the "others." I don't know what the upper/middle class of Basra want to do exactly, just what two people want.

Anyways, I've been saying this all along: lower class Shia are strongly for Sadr and middle/upper class Shia are strongly against Sadr.

I still doubt that the slums are equally unanimous in support of Sadr.

I never asserted unanimous support. Just extremely strong support.

[lord of the mark]

lets look at the NYT article you linked to;

In talks with a foreigner on Monday, several traditional tribal leaders in Sadr City - men whose influence may have been undercut by Mr. Sadr and his fighters - were reluctant to criticize him. They expressed the wish above all that the Americans would clear out and let Iraqis solve their own problems.

"The Americans come in here shooting, and it has made the people want revenge," said Sheik Jadoa Abdul al-Masary, a clan leader in the northeast corner of Sadr City.

"My basic advice to the Americans is to leave this area," he said, furiously fingering a string of plastic beads. "There's no oil, no gold, just poor families. What's the reason for coming in here and making trouble?"

Sheik Jowad Maawi al-Maham, the elderly tribal head of a nearby neighborhood, said: "Our people were happy to see Saddam go. But after they entered Iraq, the Americans changed the deal."

"They used excessive force and called the Iraqi people terrorists," he said. "We haven't seen security or democracy or reconstruction."

He fully understood, he said, why young men from his neighborhood rushed to Najaf in recent weeks to fight the invaders and defend Mr. Sadr.

But as the sheik walked foreign visitors to their car, a telling exchange occurred, perhaps a hint of power-jostling to come in Sadr City and other Shiite parts of Iraq.

A young Sadr captain rushed up and peremptorily asked the visitors what they were doing here. The sheik angrily shoved the man away, shouting, "Leave them alone; these are my guests!"

now these are tribal leaders in Sadr city, a working class Shia area, and generally considered strongly pro-Sadr. They express disappointment at the course of the occupation, and prefer not to have american troops in Sadr city, but they do not demand US withdrawl from all of Iraq. The final suggestion that there is likely power jostling between them and the sadrists seems based on thin evidence, but i presume the reporters are putting that in the context of other things they know - and these are NYT reporters, not Daily Telegraph.

[lord of the mark]

[QUOTE] Originally posted by Ramo

I see why he would respond to the universal appeal of the middle and upper classes.

I didn't say that the appeal was universal.


Ok, "pretty universal." Whatever.

[Ramo]

Eh? Tribal leaders aren't Sadr's constituency either. They're at the higher wrungs of the socio-economic ladder. To wit, the first sentence you quoted:

"In talks with a foreigner on Monday, several traditional tribal leaders in Sadr City - men whose influence may have been undercut by Mr. Sadr and his fighters - were reluctant to criticize him."

And I don't see what you've written (that they support the US occupation) represented in that quote.

[Ramo]

Ok, "pretty universal." Whatever.

I said that the opposition to Sadr was pretty universal, not this appeal to the military. Some people who don't like Sadr don't like occupying troops very much either.