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GDP, M&A, EBITDA, P/E, NASDAQ, Econo-thread Part 15

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  • #61
    Btw, it's depressing to look at some of the latest actions from the French. Alstom bailout. Aventis intervention. Now it looks like Germany is going to get into the game of government direction of industry too with regard to the banks.

    http://www.expatica.com/source/site_article.asp?subchannel_id=52&story_id=7997


    Error: 404
    http://www.tnr.com/doc.mhtml?i=business&s=risen052404
    This link is broken, but the democratic experiment endures.


    Is the law of creative destruction now to be overturned in Europe? These countries need Thatchers but are getting Schroeders.
    Last edited by DanS; May 29, 2004, 23:13.
    I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

    Comment

    • #62
      Japanese household spending rose by its biggest margin in 21 years in April, fuelling hopes that consumption could soon become the main engine of the country's economic growth.
      Advertisement

      Spending by workers' households leapt 7.2 per cent from a year ago, having improved significantly in the first two months of the year, but slipped in March.
      7.2%, Holy ****!

      http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1085944394201&p=1012571727169
      DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.

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      • #63
        The bond trader part is real, the webvan debt was a joke too. But, he did buy some loser bonds (Conseco). Of course if you manage a large portfolio you are bound to have a few losers.
        “It is no use trying to 'see through' first principles. If you see through everything, then everything is transparent. But a wholly transparent world is an invisible world. To 'see through' all things is the same as not to see.”

        ― C.S. Lewis, The Abolition of Man​

        Comment

        • #64
          Crude at 42$/bbl!!! The end is nigh!!!

          Seriously, damn, I have a gasguzzler
          Originally posted by Serb:Please, remind me, how exactly and when exactly, Russia bullied its neighbors?
          Originally posted by Ted Striker:Go Serb !
          Originally posted by Pekka:If it was possible to capture the essentials of Sepultura in a dildo, I'd attach it to a bicycle and ride it up your azzes.

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          • #65
            Thankfully

            our economy is not quite so influenced by crude prices as it was in the past. However, this price is sustained would put a serious crimp in any economic improvement. Luckily, I think it will be temporary.
            “It is no use trying to 'see through' first principles. If you see through everything, then everything is transparent. But a wholly transparent world is an invisible world. To 'see through' all things is the same as not to see.”

            ― C.S. Lewis, The Abolition of Man​

            Comment

            • #66
              I was right

              marketwatch.com
              http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B545C078B%2DD474%2D44CF%2D8027%2D7CC6CE2E13CC%7D&siteid=mktw

              the $42 level was temporary.
              “It is no use trying to 'see through' first principles. If you see through everything, then everything is transparent. But a wholly transparent world is an invisible world. To 'see through' all things is the same as not to see.”

              ― C.S. Lewis, The Abolition of Man​

              Comment

              • #67
                Now at $37. Throughout this whole thing I've wondered why the Saudis have allowed this runup in prices. Such high prices are hugely not in their interest. I'm sure that Russia is making quite a few exploration and transportation investment decisions nowadays...

                On another note, Japan's first quarter was revised upward to 6.1% annualized. Good show!
                I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

                Comment

                • #68
                  Japan at 6.1%? wow.
                  urgh.NSFW

                  Comment

                  • #69
                    OPEC is pretty much pumping at capacity. The only exception is the Saudis, but then, even they can't really put out too much more without making their workers put in a lot of overtime. There are projects to increase capacity around the world, but they won't be coming on line for at least a year (some in 2 years and others in 3). In the meantime, the Saudis are raking in cash hand over fist. I think they see the writing on the wall as far as their ability to keep and spend their oil money without citizen input and have made the decision to rake in extra now and bank it for that rainy day.
                    “It is no use trying to 'see through' first principles. If you see through everything, then everything is transparent. But a wholly transparent world is an invisible world. To 'see through' all things is the same as not to see.”

                    ― C.S. Lewis, The Abolition of Man​

                    Comment

                    • #70
                      Originally posted by DanS
                      Now at $37. Throughout this whole thing I've wondered why the Saudis have allowed this runup in prices. Such high prices are hugely not in their interest. I'm sure that Russia is making quite a few exploration and transportation investment decisions nowadays...

                      On another note, Japan's first quarter was revised upward to 6.1% annualized. Good show!
                      Hmmm maybe, but most of the revision came from inventories and govt spending, so nothing to be excited about. Capital spending was even revised downwards.

                      More encouraging is that the CB governor insists monetary policy will remain loose until inflation returns. Such statements should get inflationary expectations back up.

                      And forget about Russia Dan, they're not going to be swing producer.
                      DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.

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                      • #71
                        What makes you think that, Colon?
                        I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

                        Comment

                        • #72
                          What makes you still believe Russia will?

                          pchang already said it, the Saudis are the only ones with substantial capacity left. (estimated at 1-2 million barrels a day) That automatically gives them the greatest leverage over prices.
                          And then you got the fact that one quarter of world's proven oil reservers lie in Saudi Arabia (Russia has, like, 5%?), that they export more oil than anyone else by a long shot (Russia consumes a big chunk of what it produces), and that SA can easily outprice Russia since extracting Saudi oil is dirt-cheap.
                          DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.

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                          • #73
                            I never said that they are a swing producer now, but what makes you think that they couldn't become one if they chose to make the necessary investments?

                            Don't count out Russia. There is only a 2.5 million bpd difference between the amount exported by Russia and the amount exported by Saudi Arabia (about 4.5 million bpd difference in export capacity). Russia is the only exporter for which Saudi Arabia could not compensate, if it withheld its product from the market. In this sense, Saudi Arabia's power as a swing producer is already diminished. Russia already has significant power to seek a price according to its interests.

                            Also, don't put much stock in Russia's reserve numbers. Russia's a big country, only a small portion of which has been explored heavily.
                            Last edited by DanS; June 10, 2004, 12:28.
                            I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

                            Comment

                            • #74
                              Russia

                              Will be a significant player in the oil production business at some point. However, they will not gain any new capacity for at least 2 - 3 years (timeline for completion of current projects). Significant capacity increases are dependent upon new projects which have not yet been started. Thus, the Saudis have nothing to fear from Russia for at least 5 years.
                              “It is no use trying to 'see through' first principles. If you see through everything, then everything is transparent. But a wholly transparent world is an invisible world. To 'see through' all things is the same as not to see.”

                              ― C.S. Lewis, The Abolition of Man​

                              Comment

                              • #75
                                I can agree that the Saudis have nothing to fear from Russia as a swing producer for another 5 years. However, the investment decisions on projects that Russia is starting is influenced by the current price of oil. This high price gives Russia an incentive to add large amounts of capacity.

                                I'm not proposing anything revolutionary here, guys!
                                I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

                                Comment

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