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You're such a cheerleader Dan.
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DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts. -
Rah rah sis boom bahI came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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Who is arguing that? I am simply not as optimistic as all the economist or DanS- we will see, but by November, unless something miraculous happens, Bush will still have that sad label of having less Americans working when he ends his term than before he begun, and when you realize that there are at least 4-5 million more Americans period since 2001, well, that is not that great a news.Originally posted by Jaguar
When it crosses 1 million next month, GePap still will argue that we are in the greatest bear economy since 1932. 
If you don't like reality, change it! me
"Oh no! I am bested!" Drake
"it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong" Voltaire
"Patriotism is a pernecious, psychopathic form of idiocy" George Bernard ShawComment
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Why do you think there was a bubble back then? Explain.Originally posted by DanS
Well, there was a real bubble economy in 2000 that needed adjustment in the worst of ways. We don't have that now. [Cue Hershell]
Besides, these interest rates are the lowest since 1958. This can't last forever.DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.Comment
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I recall you didn't quite agree there was a bubble going on back then. How can you tell there isn't a bubble now if you can't recognise it?DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.Comment
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There was a "bubble" because people bought shares in tech stocks that hadn't yet made a profit, with the expectation that they would soon. But they never did. Another problem was that a lot of companies lied and said they earned more than they did. So it was a bubble inflated by false expectations and lies."You're the biggest user of hindsight that I've ever known. Your favorite team, in any sport, is the one that just won. If you were a woman, you'd likely be a slut." - Slowwhand, to Imran
Eschewing silly games since December 4, 2005Comment
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Reports say that the United States spent 944 billion dollars in March on housing, roads and public works. That is a rise which is three times expectations.
The rise was 1.5 % compared to March 2003. Construction is equally divided between the private and public sectors. Meanwhile the American governments planned public works is making progress. The projects are a part of Bush's struggle to bring down unemployment. This has for instance meant a $18.6 billion package to the public traffic sector, and increase of 8.5%
I elsewhere made the point that current US economic policy is more akin to Socialdemocracy, than conservatism.
I wonder how this sudden surge in expenditure on public works is financed?Comment
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I think you're confusing the United States and Zanzibar.Reports say that the United States spent 944 dollars in March on housing, roads and public works.meet the new boss, same as the old bossComment
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Originally posted by mrmitchell
I think you're confusing the United States and Zanzibar.
I do know there lots of new jobs in Force Protection thanks to all the terrorism and guerilla action in the Middle East. A lot of guys from my National Guard unit the just came off our one year mobilization and are taking jobs in this field and its a big pay raise over what they did before the mobilization.
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I agreed that there was a stock market bubble. There was a bubble, but it was only in a few asset classes. So when a crisis picture was painted by Hershell and he went on and on about real estate prices, I found it difficult to get all worked up about it and thought that it would all work out OK. To be fair, Hershell was describing a set of real risks. I just thought the probability for the worst case was low.I recall you didn't quite agree there was a bubble going on back then. How can you tell there isn't a bubble now if you can't recognise it?
But you're right that at that time, I probably wouldn't have described it as a bubble economy. Now, I just did describe it as a bubble economy.
I should probably hash that out. Certainly, parts of it were unsustainable. Profits at very low levels and rapidly increasing investment, for instance.
Anyway, we probably know right now that we aren't in a bubble economy. It's true that in some areas -- like my own -- you could make the argument that we have a residential real estate bubble. But I doubt that will have much impact economy-wide when it all comes to an end, as it is rapidly doing.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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On a related issue..
I am an Area Manager over parts of 6 southeastern counties in coastal North Carolina..in the ready mix concrete industry.
We are having a major problem is the Eastern United States region...a lack of cement!
From reports gathered and published, or perhaps "promoted" predictions are in the >46% range for cement to go to China, with the rebuilding efforts in both Iraq & Afghanistan depleting an already scarce source.
We have been on allocation for the first time in my tenure..19 years..although other states have been ..
The cement suppliers in this area are 5..Roanoke Cement,LaFarge,Holcem,Cemex & Giant...2 of the 5 have been without cement for 2 or more weeks..
we have received 5 price increases in 40 days and have just as of Friday received word of an additional allocation handcuff forthcoming..
Petroleum,metal and now this...
last week steel was up 48% and dont even start me on fuel costs...
I know prices have to go upward..but now our area..is doing so darned well..BUT..will grind to a screeching halt if no product is vailable
But...this will weed out the "Haves" from the "Have nots"..we are one of the largest producers in the Southeast..so purchasing power is a help to some extent..
Some markets have gone to a 4 day workweek (Ready Mix Concrete Industry that is)
Well...we couldnt keep growing at this pace forever I reckon...
~sigh~
Grandpa TrollAttached FilesHi, I'm RAH and I'm a Benaholic.-rahComment
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In other words, it was a bubble.Originally posted by Jaguar
So it was a bubble inflated by false expectations and lies.Christianity: The belief that a cosmic Jewish Zombie who was his own father can make you live forever if you symbolically eat his flesh and telepathically tell him you accept him as your master, so he can remove an evil force from your soul that is present in humanity because a rib-woman was convinced by a talking snake to eat from a magical tree...Comment
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No, it's still a bubble. Stocks are still insanely overpriced compared to their earnings expectations. Right now, I think the average stock price is based on predicted earnings for the next seventy years. I fail to see how that could be anything but speculation.Originally posted by DanS
Anyway, we probably know right now that we aren't in a bubble economy.Christianity: The belief that a cosmic Jewish Zombie who was his own father can make you live forever if you symbolically eat his flesh and telepathically tell him you accept him as your master, so he can remove an evil force from your soul that is present in humanity because a rib-woman was convinced by a talking snake to eat from a magical tree...Comment
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No, stocks aren't insanely priced. They are overpriced, but only slightly. In the 15%-20% range. Hardly anything to really worry about from an overall perspective.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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Troll: thanks for the detailed report. That must be the kind of stuff that Warren Buffett talked about a couple of weeks ago when he said he was seeing inflation. His company, Berkshire Hathaway, is in a lot of basic industries like yours.
Luckily for the economy as a whole, even expensive cement adds much less to our inflation than it does to the vast majority of other countries. Just imagine the inflaton that China is facing. They have to outbid the US in the open market. That can't be fun for them!I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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