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  • Californians, Beware!

    From Drudge:

    LOS ANGELES -- A state earthquake council has given a qualified endorsement to a prediction by a group of scientists who believe that a temblor of magnitude-6.4 or greater will occur in the Southern California desert sometime in the next five months.

    The California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council, a group of eight scientists selected by the state Office of Emergency Services, said it considers the new prediction by the scientists to be "a legitimate approach in earthquake prediction research."

    Despite its support the panel noted in a report that "the physical basis for the prediction has not been substantiated."

    The team of scientists at the University of California, Los Angeles, predict that a quake will occur within a 12,000-square-mile area east of Los Angeles by Sept. 5. The zone includes a large swath of the Mojave Desert, the Coachella Valley, the Imperial Valley and eastern San Diego County.

    The area was the location of the magnitude-7.3 Landers earthquake in 1992 and the 7.1 Hector Mine quake in 1999.

    The zone is so seismically active that the council noted in its report that the chances of an earthquake of at least magnitude-6.4 occurring randomly in the area sometime before the Sept. 5 deadline is about 10 percent.

    The council concluded that the results do not warrant any special public policy actions in California. Such actions could include warnings to the public or alerts issued to utilities to help them prevent disruptions in service.

    The scientists piqued interest after they forecast the magnitude-6.5 San Simeon quake in December and the magnitude-8.1 quake last year off Japan's Hokkaido island. In both cases, the group set wide parameters in place and time.

    The team bases its predictions on long chains of small earthquakes recorded in the area.

    "In the vicinity of each such chain, we look backward and see its history over the preceding years -- whether our candidate (for an earthquake) was preceded by certain seismicity patterns," said lead team scientist Vladimir Keilis-Borok. "If yes, we accept the candidate as a short-term precursor and start a nine-month alarm."

  • #2
    Meeh. There may or may not be an earthquake hundreds of miles from the nearest population center so... I'm supposed to beware?
    Try http://wordforge.net/index.php for discussion and debate.

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    • #3
      Oerdin, you don't understand!! Such an earthquake could cut the major traffic artery from Los Angeles to Las Vegas.

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      • #4
        Sort of like a warning of some type terrorist attack, somewhere.
        What's there to do?
        Life is not measured by the number of breaths you take, but by the moments that take your breath away.
        "Hating America is something best left to Mobius. He is an expert Yank hater.
        He also hates Texans and Australians, he does diversify." ~ Braindead

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Zkribbler
          Oerdin, you don't understand!! Such an earthquake could cut the major traffic artery from Los Angeles to Las Vegas.
          it gets cut all the time because of traffic accidents. Just a couple of days aga 68 car pileup happened in Cajon pass On I-15 in California. The freeway was closed for a while.

          What happens is people are forced to take I-40 to Needles and then travel up US95 into Las Vegas.

          And as the recent bridge closure of I-95 in New England shows, major interstate closures are not the end of the world.

          In any case I-15 closing hurts us (Las Vegas) more than California. We'll get over it.

          In any case I am curious if this turns out to be true. I'll remember this story.
          Last edited by Dis; April 3, 2004, 03:47.

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          • #6
            Yeah I read this before few months ago. Whatever I'm not concerned. And I'm in Los Angeles.
            Who is Barinthus?

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            • #7
              I don't know IIRC but isn't 6.4 magnitude just average -- not huge?
              A lot of Republicans are not racist, but a lot of racists are Republican.

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              • #8
                It's not real big for the U.S.- as we build our structures stronger. It's pretty average for us, but you never know.

                that recent quake near Cambia, California last year I think was average. Not much damage, but some bricks fell from a building and killed 1 or 2 people.

                I don't remember that quake in Iran being that strong was it? Although that may have been in the upper 6's. And the scale does rise exponentially.

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                • #9
                  ah -- I see
                  A lot of Republicans are not racist, but a lot of racists are Republican.

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                  • #10
                    I can't see a 6.4 doing much in the southwesst part of California as I said. But you never know, people can be killed by falling debris.

                    Not that knowing an earthquake will happen in 6 months is going to help you. What are they going to do? Avoid standing under items that may fall on their head for 6 months?

                    If they can get it down to a 2 minute warning, and then have a siren system, I think many lives would be much safer.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Dissident
                      I can't see a 6.4 doing much in the southwesst part of California as I said. But you never know, people can be killed by falling debris.

                      Not that knowing an earthquake will happen in 6 months is going to help you. What are they going to do? Avoid standing under items that may fall on their head for 6 months?
                      Exactly hence the reason why I ain't going to waste my time worrying. Also this is way out in the east into the desert. Palm Springs is about uhhh I think 3 hours away so we might will feel it but it'd be very weakened due to the distance.

                      I wouldn't want to be caught in a 6.0 earthquake although but I ain't going to worry about it. If it happens, it happens.
                      Who is Barinthus?

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                      • #12
                        I'll keep bumping this thread until the earthquake hits

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                        • #13
                          Sounds good, but how often?
                          No, I did not steal that from somebody on Something Awful.

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                          • #14
                            as often as I remember to do it, or until I grow bored, or I forget entirely.

                            I'll probably just forget about it entirely.

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                            • #15
                              Whole lotta shaking going on...........................

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