Democratic Vice-Presidential Candidate

[Imran Siddiqui]

I'm not sure that every one of these ran in the primaries that year, but: Lieberman 2000, Kemp 1996, Gore 1992, Bush 1980, Mondale 1976, Dole 1976, Muskie 1968......

Only Bush ran in the primaries of all of them, IIRC. I'm not sure about Gore, but I think he didn't run in 1992 (though he did in 1988). Lieberman and Kemp I am 100% sure didn't run in the primaries.

[randomturn]

Miller: no chance at all. He is a vain and unpredicatable opportunist and Kerry would never trust him.

Edwards: would certainly take it and may be offered the role. Edwards was looking at an extremely tough Senate fight in NC, where his presidential ambitions were lowering his poppularity. He cannot afford to sit around for 4-8 years as a lawyer and then jump back in. His ONLY chance is to be the veep. However, he may not even be able to carry the Carolinas, so his selection is not slam dunk. Also, he did some things in his trial lawyer days that won't look too good under a microscope.

Graham: a possibility, if it seems like he can bring Fla. He is very popular there. Florida is emerging as the Rep.s version of California: they can't win without it. But if he can't guarantee Florida he won't get it, since he is weird and boring and won't be much help anywhere else.

Breaux: a possibility. Louisiana has strong democrat leanings, and he would certainly carry it, but wouldn't help much elsewhere.

Richardson: a very real possibility, for his ability to carry New Mexico and maybe Arizona as well. If those two states go Dem, the Reps have no chance at all. His hispanic heritage also helps a lot in California and Illinois.

Hilary: 0% chance

regarding the south: you've got to figure Kerry to win WV. It has always been very solidly dem: only Gore's incompetance lost him the state. FL, LA, and Arkansas are also in play. Given the 400,000 jobs lost in the Carolinas, they may be in play if Edwards is the veep.

Other swing states: NH will go Dem this time, as it is increasingly dem anyway from Bostonians and New Yorkers moving up there. It was the only Northeastern state to go for Bush. Ohio and Missouri are big states that went for Bush that have been hit hard on jobs. They will be fiercely contested. Bush's chances without either of those look pretty dim.

Jimmytrick, in general:
With regard to Bush getting 400 electoral college votes, I'll bet you $1,000 right now that doens't happen. Barring the capture of OBL, I'll be amazed if Bush wins at all, given his record on jobs, health care, the defecit, the size and spending of his government, education, the environment, immigration, and his open patronage of corporations and the ultra-wealthy. If there's a blow-out, it's more likely to be against the Reps rather than for them.

[debeest]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
Veep is usually a dead end job.

GHW Bush, Nixon, Johnson, Truman, Coolidge....... Not exactly a dead end job.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Why would anyone vote for the dems. if Zell MIller was there?

Because Zell is the Veep and thus does not matter. Do you think people voted for George Bush I based on Dan Quayle? A vast majority of people vote on the guy at the top. The Veep is just bonus to get some states to lean your way (in a favored son type of way). The Veep doesn't do anything except take orders from the President and will never really hurt the top of a ticket.

Though Graham and Breaux wouldn't be bad either.

[GePap]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
The Veep doesn't do anything except take orders from the President and will never really hurt the top of a ticket.

People exagerate the problems Quayle presented in 1988, and by 1992, it was a referendum on the BUsh years, so it was irrelevant-just why keeping Dick Cheney as the runnin mate won't hurt Bush.

The thing is, you need a VP who can work with the president- I don't think Miller and Kerry have much of a relationship or would be able to. Miller is too different from Kerry to make sense. Its like saying Bush should take on HIllary Clinton as VP to shore up his ticket and win New York.

[Guynemer]

I think either Richardson or Graham would swing enough votes to make Kerry the odds-on favorite in November.

Miller? Not gonna happen. Too conservative. Maybe Breaux, but he's not as well known as the other two.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Guynemer
I think either Richardson or Graham would swing enough votes to make Kerry the odds-on favorite in November.

Miller? Not gonna happen. Too conservative. Maybe Breaux, but he's not as well known as the other two.

I presume both Breaux and and Richardson are Catholics. Havent had one on a national ticket in quite some time - (Geraldine Ferraro?) Does that still matter?

General thoughts
Wild card - the economy - signs of growth - employment often lags - strong employment growth by 3rd quarter could impact things.


For Policy - a large portion of the swing vote will be very concerned with this. wild cards:if things break well in Iraq - Ayatollah Sistani could influence the US election.
Revolution in Iran. and of course capturing an AQ big wig, OBL or Zawahiri.

Kerry - can he make the case to the center that he has a plan for building democracy in Iraq and the region in general. (I think he should promise to make Lieberman his Sec of State - didnt Bush make that promise wrt to Powell before the 2000 election?)

[Imran Siddiqui]

GHW Bush, Nixon, Johnson, Truman, Coolidge....... Not exactly a dead end job.

If we take out those who have taken over when the President dies (Johnson, Teddy Roosevelt, Truman, Andrew Johnson) and after the passage of the amendment which makes the Prez and VP a ticket, three out of how many Presidents is considered usually?

Unless you think they are counting on Kerry to get killed?

[chequita guevara]

Graham would probably carry Florida. He is very popular here.

[Guynemer]

Lieberman as Sec. of State?

Meh. He doesn't exactly fire people up.

But there is one guy people get really excited about--Colin Powell.


Hear me out on this. Powell is what is derisively referring to in many circles as a RINO--Republican in name only. It is one of the worst kept secrets in government that he has been at odds with the rest of the Administration over a number of issues. There has been much speculation of whether he would return for a second term with Bush. However, he might--a very small chance, but a chance all the same--be amenable to serving as Sec. of State under a Democratic admin that would be more likely to share his foreign policy views. Or Sec. of Defense.

I also wouldn't be the least bit shocked to see John McCain offered a high-level cabinet post in a Kerry administration.

[GePap]

Originally posted by lord of the mark
General thoughts
Wild card - the economy - signs of growth - employment often lags - strong employment growth by 3rd quarter could impact things.

Well, while growht in the third quarter was strong, growth in the fourth quarter, while there, as not nearly as strong. The economy has to grow at unprecedented rates to make up for the job loses.

Kerry - can he make the case to the center that he has a plan for building democracy in Iraq and the region in general. (I think he should promise to make Lieberman his Sec of State - didnt Bush make that promise wrt to Powell before the 2000 election?)

Lieberman has no base of support to bring to the table. Powell was beating Bush in the polls back 1999. Liberman ran, and failed.

[Imran Siddiqui]

However, he might--a very small chance, but a chance all the same--be amenable to serving as Sec. of State under a Democratic admin that would be more likely to share his foreign policy views.

Not a chance, Guy. Not a chance. If Powell was amenable to serving in a Dem administration, Clinton would have swooped him up (he was trying as well).

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui

The other southern candidates are not as strong in terms of secondary support, that Edwards has.

That's because he's the only one running. Here is a partial list of the Southern Democrat Senators retiring this year:

Bob Graham - FLA
John Breaux - LA
Zell Miller - GA
Fritz Hollings - SC

I think Breaux or Miller would be a great pick for Kerry. They are both conservative southern Dems who have experience (especially Miller) and are wildly popular in their home states and in the South. MUCH more so than Edwards.

IF a Big Big IF, Kerry could persuade Miller as VP, Kerry would be a lock. All of a sudden the Bush South lock is broken wide open.

I do however doubt Zell would agree to be VP.

OTOH, if Bush talked Cheney out of a second go 'round and drafted Rudy J. as his VP, he would have a much more solid chance in the North east.

[GePap]

Originally posted by Ogie Oglethorpe
OTOH, if Bush talked Cheney out of a second go 'round and drafted Rudy J. as his VP, he would have a much more solid chance in the North east.

Nah, people in NYC still remember rudy before 9/11. His image as a saint is large in upstate NY perhaps, and outside on NYC. Sure, he is still popular int eh tri-satte area due to 9/11, but he could not bring Bush any states. Certainly not NY or NJ.

[Ramo]

Edwards is definitely Kerry's best choice. He's obviously an incredible campaigner (as was emphatically not the case with Lieberman in 2000), connects really well with ordinary people and the backbone of the Democratic Party with his working class background and his focus on poverty. And the NC appeal also carries to vital places like WV and Ohio.

Graham would be an interesting pick as well, insuring the win of Florida.

Breaux is a possibility, but probably wouldn't be enough to carry Louisiana, so might not be worth it (being not a particularly interesting candidate). Miller is similar WRT Georgia, and is an insult to the left by picking the leader of the Democrats for Bush movement, a recipe to depress votes.

I think he should promise to make Lieberman his Sec of State

Why do you say that? He's obviously seen as out of step with mainstream Democratic foreign policy; and as the incredible turnout at the primaries have demonstrated, getting your base excited enough to vote is what will win the election.