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  • #121
    Maryland is half Kerry and half undecided?

    Other than that, it's a very reasonable map. It shows what will happen if it doesn't become a clear two-man race.
    "You're the biggest user of hindsight that I've ever known. Your favorite team, in any sport, is the one that just won. If you were a woman, you'd likely be a slut." - Slowwhand, to Imran

    Eschewing silly games since December 4, 2005

    Comment

    • #122
      Oops. Lousy fill tool. Maryland will most likely go to Kerry, but Edwards has a chance if he stays in the race long enough.

      Add, NY could be undecided, however I've colored it Kerry because of the strong labor vote he seems to be getting. If Dean remains, but doesn't remain strongly enough he may split the vote, but unless Edwards is finally discovered as the second coming it's not going to make any difference.

      So far it seems that any state where you expect Dean to split the vote with Kerry, it doesn't happen.

      oh and who do you think will be the ABK (anybody but Kerry) candidate will be if it does go down to a 2-3 race?
      Res ipsa loquitur

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      • #123
        The anybody but Kerry candidate is clearly Edwards. He's got the 3rd most delegates (Dean still has more, but that will change by the time Virginia and Tennessee vote.) Clark is behind him in terms of delegates. (102-78)

        He'll be way behind after Virginia and Tennessee vote.
        "You're the biggest user of hindsight that I've ever known. Your favorite team, in any sport, is the one that just won. If you were a woman, you'd likely be a slut." - Slowwhand, to Imran

        Eschewing silly games since December 4, 2005

        Comment

        • #124
          Yeah I'd probably agree with you. Although Clark has been doing better than I expected.

          I think pretty much the chips are down now, that Kerry now seems the likely winner. With this situation, hopefully the big ABK money people will start to give Edwards some more money and momentum.
          Res ipsa loquitur

          Comment

          • #125
            Originally posted by GePap
            Thanks to superdelegates, Dean is still ahead of Clark and Edwards in the number of delegates.
            What are superdelegates? And how did Dean get them?
            Smile
            For though he was master of the world, he was not quite sure what to do next
            But he would think of something
            "Hm. I suppose I should get my waffle a santa hat." - Kuciwalker

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            • #126
              Super delegates are party officials, etc... from the various states that can vote as they wish and are not pledged by any primary vote. They total approximately 1/5 of the total delegates. They are the ones that will ultimately determine this years nominee.
              "I am sick and tired of people who say that if you debate and you disagree with this administration somehow you're not patriotic. We should stand up and say we are Americans and we have a right to debate and disagree with any administration." - Hillary Clinton, 2003

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              • #127
                Can they change their votes when someone drops out?
                Smile
                For though he was master of the world, he was not quite sure what to do next
                But he would think of something
                "Hm. I suppose I should get my waffle a santa hat." - Kuciwalker

                Comment

                • #128
                  Originally posted by Drogue
                  Can they change their votes when someone drops out?
                  Yes, They are completely unpledged. They can change their vote all the way up to the convention and often do.
                  "I am sick and tired of people who say that if you debate and you disagree with this administration somehow you're not patriotic. We should stand up and say we are Americans and we have a right to debate and disagree with any administration." - Hillary Clinton, 2003

                  Comment

                  • #129
                    We must remember that Dean did not compete in any of the primaries yesterday- he did not advertise nor stump.

                    The big challenge then will be to win in Washignton or another northern state prior to March 3. if he does, he is back in, and given that Clarks one victory was extremely narrow, ahead of him.
                    If you don't like reality, change it! me
                    "Oh no! I am bested!" Drake
                    "it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong" Voltaire
                    "Patriotism is a pernecious, psychopathic form of idiocy" George Bernard Shaw

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                    • #130
                      I think Dean will stay in until Cali and NY whether he wins one of not. He's got some delegates, he's got many superdelegates, and he has a chance in those states. Unless he wins at least one of those, I don't see him continuing after then though.
                      Smile
                      For though he was master of the world, he was not quite sure what to do next
                      But he would think of something
                      "Hm. I suppose I should get my waffle a santa hat." - Kuciwalker

                      Comment

                      • #131
                        Originally posted by Drogue
                        I think Dean will stay in until Cali and NY whether he wins one of not. He's got some delegates, he's got many superdelegates, and he has a chance in those states. Unless he wins at least one of those, I don't see him continuing after then though.
                        He's got to come in second somewhere or people will forget about him.
                        "You're the biggest user of hindsight that I've ever known. Your favorite team, in any sport, is the one that just won. If you were a woman, you'd likely be a slut." - Slowwhand, to Imran

                        Eschewing silly games since December 4, 2005

                        Comment

                        • #132
                          Bye bye, Howie.

                          BTW, when is the Minnesota caucus?

                          Comment

                          • #133
                            Originally posted by Drogue
                            I think Dean will stay in until Cali and NY whether he wins one of not. He's got some delegates, he's got many superdelegates, and he has a chance in those states.
                            Current polls in California have Kerry at 49% with Dean at 18%. Unless Dean can win something soon, he's just delaying the inevitable.
                            "I read a book twice as fast as anybody else. First, I read the beginning, and then I read the ending, and then I start in the middle and read toward whatever end I like best." - Gracie Allen

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